Managerial Rationale for Entry and the Relation to Performance and Small-Business Lending

In a survey of banks founded from 1994–2002, we find over 85% of respondents think their small-business market was underserved, 72% felt the market needed more competition, almost half indicated they were likely to start a bank because takeover activity displaced them, and 75% entered due to a market merger. Markets of banks started by displaced managers or following a merger have performance and lending characteristics similar to comparable banks, but larger changes in asset growth rates. Managers who responded that small-businesses were underserved have higher numbers and amounts of small-business loans 3 years after entry. Managers responding that entry was due to mergers eliminating community banks have lower ROA, but larger changes in market ROA. Markets had smaller changes in ROA when entry was to provide competition or when managers thought the small business market was underserved.

Participating Insurance Contracts and the Rothschild-Stiglitz Equilibrium Puzzle

We extend the Rothschild-Stiglitz (RS) insurance market model with adverse selection by allowing insurers to offer either non-participating or participating policies, that is, insurance contracts with policy dividends or supplementary calls for premium. It is shown that an equilibrium always exists in such a setting. Participating policies act as an implicit threat that dissuades deviant insurers who aim to attract low-risk individuals only. The model predicts that the mutual corporate form should be prevalent in insurance markets where second-best Pareto efficiency requires cross-subsidisation between risk types.     

Discussion of “The impact of product market competition on the quantity and quality of voluntary disclosures”

Li (2010, this issue) examines how product market competition affects voluntary disclosure by firms. Using several competition proxies, she finds that both the competitive threat from potential entrants into an industry and from existing rivals affect the quantity and accuracy of voluntary profit and investment forecasts by firms in that industry. However, the study’s findings are inconclusive mainly because each competition proxy used can reflect both types of competitive threat. The focus of my discussion is to provide some comments and suggestions for future researchers to consider in examining how the nature of product market competition affects voluntary firm disclosure.     

Systemic risk in Europe: deciphering leading measures,common patterns and real effects

The paper studies salient features of systemic risk in a sample of 22 European (EU and non-EU) countries during January 2010–March 2016. Building on a novel dataset and conducting an empirical horse race, we determine pivotal systemic risk measures for the sample countries. SRISK and volatility indicator tend to lead other metrics, followed by leverage. In contrast to the conventional wisdom, composite systemic risk measures aggregated with the aid of principal and independent component analysis perform worse. The leading systemic risk measures exhibit a high degree of connectedness. The VIX index, TED spread, the Composite Index of Systemic Stress (CISS) and long-term interest rates underlie their dynamics. Two clusters within the sample are identified, with CISS and long-term interest rates being crucial to distinguish between them. There is only scarce evidence for causal linkages between systemic risk and industrial production in the sample countries, based on the concurring results of standard and nonparametric Granger causality tests.     

Activity in futures: does underlying market size relate to futures trading volume?

This study investigates the determinants of trading volume in the futures markets and focuses on underlying market characteristics as an explanation for futures trading volume. Four major futures contracts traded on the Sydney Futures Exchange are investigated: the stock price index (SPI); the 90-day bank accepted bill (BAB); the 3-year bond; and the 10-year bond. An important outcome of this study is an identification of the fundamental drivers of trading volume in the futures markets, which have largely gone undocumented in prior research. We find evidence that futures trading volume is related to underlying market characteristics: the size of the Australian superannuation fund investments in equities (for the SPI), short term treasury notes (for the BAB), non-government bonds on issue (for the 3-year contract) and government bonds on issue (for the 10-year contract).     

American options and callable bonds under stochastic interest rates and endogenous bankruptcy

A new characterization of the American-style option is proposed under a very general multifactor Markovian and diffusion framework. The efficiency of the proposed pricing solutions is shown to depend only on the use of a viable valuation method for the corresponding European-style option and for the transition density of the model’s state variables. Under a Gauss-Markov stochastic interest rates setup, these new American option pricing solutions are shown to offer a much better accuracy-efficiency trade-off than the approximations already available in the literature. This result is also used to price callable corporate bonds under an endogenous bankruptcy structural approach, by decomposing the option to call or default into a European put on the firm value plus two early exercise premium components.     

Oil prices and transport sector returns: an international analysis

This study examines the role of oil prices in explaining ‘transport sector’ equity returns in 38 countries across the world. The findings of the study are strongly supportive of some role for oil prices in determining the transport sector returns for the countries falling within the ‘Developed’, ‘Europe’ and ‘G7’ groupings. In particular, by allowing for an asymmetry in our model, we find the oil factor to be jointly significant along with the presence of negative oil risk premium in these groupings. It is worth noting that these groups represent mature economies and stock markets. However, there appears to be no such evidence of a significant role for oil for other country groupings (named, Asia Pacific, Emerging and Latin America). Collectively these countries have a relatively short market history and/or are developing economies.     

Banking competition and welfare

We develop a simple general equilibrium model in which investment in a risky technology is subject to moral hazard and banks can extract market power rents. We show that more bank competition results in lower economy-wide risk, higher social welfare, lower bank capital ratios, more efficient production plans and Pareto-ranked real allocations. Perfect competition supports a second best allocation and optimal levels of bank risk and capitalization. These results are at variance with those obtained by a large literature that has studied a similar environment in partial equilibrium, they are empirically relevant, and carry significant implications for policy guidance.     

Der Einfluss von Cat Bonds-Emissionen auf das ökonomische Zielkapital von Schaden-/Unfallversicherungsunternehmen

One of the major problems in the market development of cat bonds is their impact on the economical capital requirement, while non-indemnity-triggers are used. In this article, an example portfolio is constructed which is heavily exposed to hurricane risks in Florida. A cat bond with a parametric trigger, a reinsurance without collateral and two other reference covers are used on this portfolio and their capital relief effect are calculated by means of monte carlo simulation. Amongst others, it shows that not only basis risk, but also default risk and cost disadvantage lead to the decline of a risk transfer instrument's capital relief effect. In the next step, the simulation is extended to the value based management with the capital requirement being a constraint and the maximization of the company's value being the objective function. In this context, the basis risk shows a much lower influence compared with the cost factors.     

China,Japan and the US Stock Markets and the Global Financial Crisis

In this paper, while focusing on the impact that the global financial crisis had on the stock markets of China, Japan, and the United States, the stock-price volatilities and linkage between these three countries are analyzed. In addition, the relationships between macroeconomic variables (real-economy variables and monetary-policy variables) and stock price volatility in each country are investigated. The estimation results of the EGARCH model revealed that although China’s stock price volatility was far greater than those of Japanese and US stock prices, China was less affected by the global financial crisis in 2007 than Japan and the United States. For China, stock price volatility was greater in the early 1990s, shortly after the stock market had been established, than in 2007 when the global financial crisis occurred. Furthermore, it has been revealed that the linkage of Chinese, Japanese, and US stock prices has increased since the global financial crisis. Moreover, Granger causality testing revealed China’s real-economy variables and monetary-policy variables do not affect China’s stock price volatility.