北部湾盆地油藏开发类比知识库研究及应用

北部湾盆地油藏开发单元多,类型复杂,开发效果差异大,亟待认清该油田群区域开发规律.建立在油藏分类及阶段划分基础上,通过对北部湾区域178个油藏开发单元静、动态多达50多种数据进行统计,建立区域静、动态知识库.在该知识库基础上,采用统计分析方法,得到适用于北部湾盆地不同类型油藏的产能、采收率及分阶段产量预测方法.该成果有效地提高了北部湾盆地油藏开发指标预测精度及效率,为后续油藏的开发调整奠定了基础.     

公共服务型政府构建模式研究

构建社会主义和谐社会,中国政府应该如何运用市场的方法来管理公共事务,提高公共行政服务的质量和效率,实现公共行政管理的现代化,是摆在国人面前现实而又紧迫的问题.根据政府服务职能的定位,构建公共服务型政府模式应做到以顾客或市场为服务导向,实现公共服务职能的市场化、社会化和法治化.     

How will the Belt and Road initiative advance China’s exports?

We examined 2007, 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016 data from 49 countries to determine changes wrought by China’s Belt and Road initiative; we also used panel data regarding the Maritime Silk and Inland Silk Roads to test initiative effects on Chinese exports. Post-initiative infrastructure expansion and logistics performance improvements led to positive effects on China’s exports. Additionally, legal-system similarities and inland borders with trade partners had a more positive effect on Chinese exports in the Inland Silk Road, while population and free trade agreements were found to have a more positive effect on the Maritime Silk Road.     

基于VAR模型的文化产业与旅游产业互动关系分析——以张家界市武陵源区为例

结合张家界市武陵源2009—2016年文化产业总产出和旅游产业总收入的相关数据,在建立VAR(向量自回归)模型基础上,本文对张家界市武陵源区文化产业和旅游产业互动关系进行定量分析。研究表明:(1)采用ADF检验,在满足协整检验的前提条件下,得出二者具有协整关系,武陵源区文旅产业可以进行长期均衡的融合发展,并且相应序列具有很强的稳定性。(2)运用Granger因果关系检验法,可见在检验水平为5%的标准下,张家界市武陵源区文化产业和旅游产业之间有因果关系。(3)张家界市武陵源区文化产业总产出对旅游产业总收入有显著的正向影响,说明武陵源的文化促进了旅游业的发展。     

Dyadic Exploration of the Relationship of Leisure Satisfaction,Leisure Time,and Gender to Relationship Satisfaction

The stress suppressing model proposes that sufficient resources reduce stress. The stress exposure model suggests that certain factors expose individuals to more stress. The current study tested these two models by assessing the within-person lagging effect of leisure time on perceived severity of daily stressors. Analyzing eight-day diary data (N=2,022), we found that having more leisure time than usual on a day reduced perceived severity of daily stressors the next day and that the decrease in severity became larger with further increase in leisure time. Additionally, the effect is much stronger among busy individuals who usually had little leisure time. The findings demonstrated an accelerated suppressing effect that differed between-person, and the lagging effect affords stronger implication for causality than correlational analysis.     

国际工程项目宏观风险评价研究

随着我国建筑总承包企业实力不断加强,中国建筑总承包企业在国际市场上占据越来越重要的角色,然而,国际工程给我国带来巨大利润的同时,也使其面临着巨大的风险。通过综合考虑国际承包企业的跨国际运作,基于建筑总承包企业可能面临的企业自身技术管理能力、国际政治、国际金融环境、人文地理等风险因素,构建了系统的国际工程宏观风险评价指标体系,给出了国际工程宏观风险评价方法,对国际承包商从事国际工程承包战略决策、规避宏观风险提供一定的借鉴意义。     

Capital Flight: China's Experience

We study the empirical determinants of China's capital flight. In addition to the covered interest differential, our empirical exercise includes a rather exhaustive list of macroeconomic variables and a few institutional factors. Overall, our regression exercise shows that China's capital flight is quite well explained by its own history and covered interest differentials. The other possible determinants offer relatively small additional explanatory power. It is also found that China's capital flight responds differently to the components of covered interest differentials and to the positive and negative components of these variables. The response pattern, however, depends on the choice of data frequency. The general impression is that the monthly results are more intuitive than the quarterly ones.     

基于模块化的江苏计算机产业升级战略研究

目前,江苏计算机产业对外依存度较高,技术、研发严重受制于人。针对这一现状,江苏电子计算机生产企业应继续以模块化、OEH生产作为其升级的契机,不断调整嵌入价值链的位置和组织方式,最终与当地产业价值链一道实现整体性跃迁。     

北京南站客流分析

通过对北京南站的实地调查,以第一手资料作为依据.使用matlab软件,用非线性最小二乘法拟合出了北京南站旅客提前到达时间(即旅客候车时间)的概率分布,结合列车时刻表,积分加总计算出南站的最高聚集人数,同时也调查得出了各种交通方式的分担率,为北京南站各类设施的评价提供依据.