A Cross-Country Comparison of Okun's Coefficient

In this paper Okun's law is tested for the G7 countries in order to compare the responsiveness of unemployment to economic growth. Cyclical unemployment and output are extracted using Harvey's structural time series model. Okun's coefficient is estimated by OLS, rolling OLS, and SUR. The coefficient seems to be highest for North America and lowest for Japan, a result that can be explained in terms of differences in labor market rigidities. The rising absolute value of the coefficients over time indicated by the results of rolling OLS is explained in terms of labor market reform.J. Comp. Econom.,June 1997,24(3), pp. 335–356. La Trobe University, Bundoora, Victoria 3083, Australia.     

In Defence of Model-Based Seasonal Adjustment: An Illustration Using Australian Data

It is argued that the X-11 seasonal adjustment procedure suffers from severe drawbacks, and so it should be abandoned in favour of model-based seasonal adjustment. Furthermore, it is argued that Harvey's structural time series model is superior to the conventional seasonal ARIMA models for the purpose of model-based seasonal adjustment. It is shown, with the help of a large number of Australian time series, that the nature of seasonality differs from one series to another, and this is why model selection is crucial for seasonal adjustment. It is further shown that model-based seasonal adjustment could produce results that are significantly different from those obtained by applying the X-11 procedure. Since the X-11 procedure is not based on an explicit model and in view of its other serious drawbacks, it is concluded that the procedure should be abandoned in favour of model-based seasonal adjustment.     

The wealth effect and diamond risk structure of financial regulation

The objective of this article was to evaluate the effect of announcements of financial regulation on risk and return in the Vietnamese equity market. The techniques used for the purpose of analysing risk and return include event study and non-parametric tests, as well as asset pricing models supplemented with interaction variables and a variety of ARCH-like specifications such as GARCH, TARCH, EGARCH and PARCH. We find evidence for the wealth effect, the presence of delayed response and a risk shifting behaviour in the form of diamond risk structure. Our results show that abnormal returns are present around the announcements of operating rules and other stock market regulations. Abnormal returns can also be obtained after considering legal documents such as circulars and decisions.     

Demand Estimation in the Presence of Stochastic Trend and Seasonality: The Case of Meat Demand in the United Kingdom

If budget shares have stochastic trend or seasonality or both, then demand equations based on the assumption of deterministic trend and deterministic seasonality will be mis-specified. We test this proposition by estimating a Linearized Almost Ideal (LAI) demand system for meat demand in the United Kingdom using Harvey's structural time series methodology. We demonstrate that the model specification allowing for stochastic trend and deterministic seasonality performs best in terms of diagnostic tests and goodness of fit measures. It is also shown that the model with stochastic trend is better at out-of-sample forecasting.     

The demise of the ARC journal ranking scheme: an ex post analysis of the accounting and finance journals

The recent abolition of the ARC journal ranking scheme is indicative of some problematical features of journal ranking in general and the ARC scheme in particular. An alternative citation‐based ranking scheme is applied to the accounting and finance journals to highlight some loopholes in the abandoned ARC scheme and provide some suggestions for how to proceed with ERA 2012. By re‐ranking journals according to their citation indices, it is demonstrated that the ARC ranking placed a large number of journals where they do not belong. As a result, the ARC scheme induced some adverse behavioural changes with respect to preferred publication outlets.     

The Profitability of Option‐Based Contrarian Strategies: An Empirical Analysis

Short‐selling restrictions limit investors' opportunities to profit from contrarian strategies in equity markets. We examine the proposition that incorporating options into contrarian strategies constitute a viable alternative to investors when short‐selling restrictions are in place. In particular, we combine equities with the call and put options traded on the Australian Stock Exchange to investigate the profitability of contrarian strategies in the hybrid market and options market alone. We assess the practical issues in the execution of these approaches, including testing for the effects of limited liquidity and transaction costs. We also investigate how fundamental factors (such as dividend yield, firm size, book‐to‐market ratio, earnings per share, price‐earnings ratio, value stocks, and market conditions) affect contrarian portfolios. The results show that employing options can enhance the profitability of contrarian strategies under certain market conditions.