Testing the endogenous growth model: public expenditure, taxation, and growth over the long run

Endogenous growth models, such as Barro (1990), predict that government expenditure and taxation will have both temporary and permanent effects on growth. We test this prediction using panels of annual and period‐averaged data for OECD countries during 1970–95, isolating long‐run from short‐run fiscal effects. Our results strongly support the endogenous growth model and suggest that long‐run fiscal effects are not fully captured by period averaging and static panel methods. Unlike previous investigations, our estimates are free from biases associated with incomplete specification of the government budget constraint and do not appear to result from endogeneity of fiscal or investment variables. JEL Classification: H30, O40 Validation du modèle de croissance endogène: dépenses publiques, fiscalité et croissance à long terme. Des modèles de croissance endogène comme celui de Barro (1990) prédisent que dépenses gouvernementales et fiscalité vont avoir des effets temporaires et permanents sur la croissance. On met cette prévision au test à l'aide de données annuelles et pour certaines moyennes couvrant des sous‐périodes pour les pays de l'OCDE (1970–95) dans le but de départager les effets à court et à long terme. Les résultats valident fortement le modèle de croissance endogène et suggèrent que les effets fiscaux à long terme ne sont pas pleinement capturés par des méthodes utilisant des moyennes ou des méthodes statiques. Contrairement aux résultats d'enquêtes antérieures, les résultats proposés ne souffrent pas de distorsions attribuables à une spécification incomplète de la contrainte budgétaire du gouvernement, et ne semblent pas être l'effet d'écho de l'endogénéité des variables fiscales et de l'investissement.     

Profitable Mergers in a Cournot Model of Spatial Competition

This paper investigates the profitability and locational effects of mergers when Cournot firms compete in spatially differentiated markets. A two-firm merger is generally profitable because the merged partners can coordinate their location decisions. The merged firm locates its plants outside the market quartiles with distance from the market center being an increasing function of the number of nonmerged firms remaining at the market center. Profitable two-firm mergers reduce competitive pressure, leading to higher prices and reduced consumer surplus. The merger increases total surplus by increased locational efficiency and the increased profits of the merged and nonmerged firms.     

The Effects of Uncertainty on Market Prices: Evidence from Coaching Changes in the NBA

Abstract:  This study examines the effects of uncertainty on market prices. Specifically, we use the National Basketball Association betting market to examine whether uncertainty resulting from midseason coaching changes affects the ability of bettors to accurately set betting lines. We find that uncertainty amid midseason coaching changes results in less accurate pricing, as evidenced by higher volatility and greater overall inaccuracy in betting lines. We also find that uncertainty regarding the ability of the replacement coach and/or his strategies results in less accurate pricing, again evidenced by higher volatility and greater overall inaccuracy in betting lines.