EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION,TECHNOLOGY CHOICE,AND WORKER ALLOCATION

We show empirically that high‐risk sectors, which contribute strongly to aggregate productivity growth, are relatively small and have relatively low productivity growth in countries with strict employment protection legislation (EPL). To understand these findings, we develop a two‐sector matching model where firms endogenously choose between a safe technology and a risky technology. For firms that have chosen the risky technology, EPL raises the costs of shedding workers in case they receive a low productivity draw. According to our calibrated model, high‐EPL countries benefit less from the arrival of new risky technologies than low‐EPL countries. Parameters estimated through reduced‐form regressions of employment and productivity on exit costs, riskiness, and in particular their interaction are qualitatively similar for actual cross‐country data and simulated model data. Our model is consistent with the slowdown in productivity in the European Union relative to the United States since the mid‐1990s.     

Leveraging of Reputation through Umbrella Branding: The Implications for Market Structure

The Klein–Leffler model explains how fear of reputation loss can induce firms to produce high‐quality experience goods. This paper shows that reputation can be leveraged across products via umbrella branding, but only by a firm with a monopoly on at least one product. Such a firm may be able to capture a market by using umbrella branding to make high quality credible at a lower price than the incumbent competitive firms. If monopolists compete for this capture, consumers are left better off than if the market remained competitive, in some cases even though the price increases.     

Government investment and fiscal stimulus

Effects of government investment are studied in an estimated neoclassical growth model. The analysis focuses on two dimensions that are critical for understanding government investment as a fiscal stimulus: implementation delays for building public capital and expected fiscal adjustments to deficit-financed spending. Implementation delays can produce small or even negative labor and output responses to increases in government investment in the short run. Anticipated fiscal adjustments matter both quantitatively and qualitatively for long-run growth effects. When public capital is insufficiently productive, distorting financing can make government investment contractionary at longer horizons.     

Bayesian inference for periodic regime-switching models

We present a general class of nonlinear time-series Markov regime-switching models for seasonal data which may exhibit periodic features in the hidden Markov process as well as in the laws of motion in each of the regimes. This class of models allows for non-trivial dependencies between seasonal, cyclical and long-term patterns in the data. To overcome the computational burden we adopt a Bayesian approach to estimation and inference. This paper contains two empirical examples as illustration, one uses housing starts data while the other employs US post-Second World War industrial production. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Land use transitions: Socio-ecological feedback versus socio-economic change

The concept of land use transition highlights that land use change is non-linear and is associated with other societal and biophysical system changes. A transition in land use is not a fixed pattern, nor is it deterministic. Land use transitions can be caused by negative socio-ecological feedbacks that arise from a depletion of key resources or from socio-economic change and innovation that take place rather independently from the ecological system. Here, we explore whether the sources of land use transitions are mostly endogenous socio-ecological forces or exogenous socio-economic factors. We first review a few generic pathways of forest transition as identified in national case studies, and evaluate the varying ecological quality of expanding forests associated with these pathways. We then discuss possible explanatory frameworks of land use transitions. We use the case of the recent forest transition in Vietnam as an illustration. Socio-ecological feedbacks seem to better explain a slowing down of deforestation and stabilization of forest cover, while exogenous socio-economic factors better account for reforestation. We conclude by discussing the prospects of accelerating land use transitions in tropical forest countries.     

Predicting bankruptcy in the Texas nursing facility industry

Approximately 50% of nursing facilities in Texas petitioned for bankruptcy during the 1998–2004 period. Using a logit regression model tested for robustness, we find nursing facilities that are profit-seekers, chain members, pay higher than average wage rates, accept more intensive-care residents and obtain a larger than average portion of their funding from public sources are highly vulnerable to negative changes in regulatory policy decisions on Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement. Larger facilities having higher than average occupancy rates and quality of care are less susceptible to adverse decisions. The model correctly classifies a facility as either bankrupt or solvent in about 75% of cases. We also examine the duration of bankruptcy using accelerated failure-time models. It appears that the duration of bankruptcy depends on location, out-of-state ownership, length of ownership, volume of resident days supplied, total cost and proportion of revenues from Medicaid.     

MIGRATION,SOCIAL NETWORKS,AND CREDIT: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM PERU

We seek evidence of the causal relationship between migration, social networks, and the probability of receiving credit in a developing country where credit markets are weak and internal migration is common. Migrants may face binding asymmetric information constraints as they often lack collateral. Social networks can help mitigate these constraints. Conversely, migrants might face higher liquidity constraints and might, therefore, demand more credit than nonmigrants. The effect of migration on participation in the credit market is thus ambiguous. Compounding this, migration and credit may be jointly determined. We utilize rich data from Peru to establish the net effect of migration on credit and the role that social networks play in this relationship.     

How do internal capabilities and external partnerships affect innovativeness?

How do a firm’s internal capabilities and external partnerships contribute to its product and process innovativeness? How do their impacts differ? Based on the theoretical framework of exploitation and exploration, we develop an integrative model linking the impact of both internal capabilities and external partnerships on product and process innovativeness. Survey responses from Taiwanese biotechnology firms indicate that research and development (R&;D), marketing, and manufacturing capabilities have different effects on product and process innovativeness. Of the four types of external partnerships, only partnerships with universities and research institutes seem to add value, whereas partnerships with suppliers, customers, and competitors do not contribute to innovativeness. Moreover, marketing capability and customer partnerships have a positive interaction effect on product innovativeness, while manufacturing capability and supplier partnerships have a positive interaction effect on process innovativeness.