Takeover Timing, Implementation Uncertainty, and Embedded Divestment Options

We design a compound real options model, which determines the timing of takeovers and characterizes the distribution of the associated surplus. We delineate a relation between the bargaining power of the acquiring firm and the takeover incentives. The takeover threshold is decreasing as a function of the expected primary takeover gain and the embedded divestment gain. Decreased implementation uncertainty stimulates takeover activity. This uncertainty concerns the delay until either primary takeover synergies or subsequent divestment gains are realized. We demonstrate how the relation between volatility and takeover timing depends on the functional form of the profit flow with implementation uncertainty.Financial support from the Foundation for the Promotion of the Actuarial Profession and the Finnish Insurance Society to Luis H. R. Alvarez is gratefully acknowledged. Both authors acknowledge the financial support from the Yrj? Jahnsson Foundation and the Research Unit of Economic Structures and Growth (RUESG) at the University of Helsinki. The authors are grateful to Josef Zechner and two anonymous referees for their constructive comments and suggested improvements on an earlier version of this study.     

Short reports

The aim of the study was to evaluate a hospital-based injury recording system on hip fracture registration in elderly persons aged + 65 years from 1994 through 2008, and to examine the agreement between the number of validated fractures and the number of fractures reported to the Norwegian Patient Registry using three different sources: (1) Medical records, (2) Patient administrative system and (3) The hospital's hip fracture record to the Norwegian Patient Registry from 2002 through 2008. The injury recording system included 582 hip fracture events and 535 (92%) were confirmed through the medical records. Reasons for non-verification were different coding failures. Searching the patient administrative system using ICD codes identified 16 hip fractures not included in the fracture registry between 2002 through 2008. The total number was the same as the number of hip fractures reported to the Norwegian Patient Registry using ICD codes alone for identification. The conclusion is that on well-defined diagnosis like hip fractures, local fracture registries may obtain a high degree of reliability if different sources are available for quality control. Well-functioning patient administrative systems may be used to study numbers of hip fractures.     

The Relevant Market for Production and Wholesale of Electricity in the Nordic Countries: An Econometric Study*

We apply cointegration analysis to daily averages of Nord Pool prices covering the period 2001–2007 in order to empirically characterize the geographical dimension of the relevant market for production and wholesale of electricity. We reach the following econometric conclusions: (i) price areas Finland, Sweden, and Norway 3 unambiguously belong to the same relevant market; (ii) Denmark 2 belongs to this same market except for the subsample 2004–2007; (iii) Norway 1 and Denmark 1 define separate markets on their own. We find that the stochastic trends in Nord Pool prices originate in countries abundant in capacity to generate hydro power.     

Errors in variables in multinomial choice modeling: A simulation study applied to a multinomial logit model of travel mode choice

Modeling travel demand is a vital part of transportation planning and management. Level of service (LOS) attributes representing the performance of transportation system and characteristics of travelers including their households are major factors determining the travel demand. Information on actual choice and characteristics of travelers is obtained from a travel survey at an individual level. Since accurate measurement of LOS attributes such as travel time and cost components for different travel modes at an individual level is critical, they are normally obtained from network models. The network-based LOS attributes introduce measurement errors to individual trips thereby causing errors in variables problem in a disaggregate model of travel demand. This paper investigates the possible structure and magnitude of biases introduced to the coefficients of a multinomial logit model of travel mode choice due to random measurement errors in two variables, namely, access/egress time for public transport and walking and cycling distance to work. A model was set up that satisfies the standard assumptions of a multinomial logit model. This model was estimated on a data set from a travel survey on the assumption of correctly measured variables. Subsequently random measurement errors were introduced and the mean values of the parameters from 200 estimations were presented and compared with the original estimates. The key finding in this paper is that errors in variables result in biased parameter estimates of a multinomial logit model and consequently leading to poor policy decisions if the models having biased parameters are applied in policy and planning purposes. In addition, the paper discusses some potential remedial measures and identifies research topics that deserve a detailed investigation to overcome the problem. The paper therefore significantly contributes to bridge the gap between theory and practice in transport.     

Leadership and Change: The Case for Greater Ethical Clarity

This article addresses the relationship between the ethics underpinning leadership and change. It examines the developments in leadership and change over the last three decades and their ethical implications. It adopts a consequentialist perspective on ethics and uses this to explore different approaches to leadership and change. In particular, the article focuses on individual (egoistic) consequentialism and utilitarian consequentialism. The article argues that all leadership styles and all approaches to change are rooted in a set of values, some of which are more likely to lead to ethical outcomes than others. It also argues that all stakeholders in an organisation have a role to play in ensuring ethical outcomes. It concludes that in order to achieve sustainable and beneficial change, those who promote and adopt particular approaches to leadership and change must provide greater ethical clarity about the approaches they are championing.     

Pharmaceutical Patents: Incentives for Research and Development or Marketing?

We analyze how a patent‐holding pharmaceutical firm may strategically use advertising of existing drugs to affect research and development (R&D) investments in new (differentiated) drugs, and thereby affect the probability distribution of future market structures in the industry. Within a fairly general model framework, we derive exact conditions for advertising and R&D being substitute strategies for the incumbent firm and show that it may overinvest in advertising to reduce the incentive for an entrant to invest in R&D, thereby reducing the probability of a new product on the market. In a more specific setting of informative advertising, we show that such overinvestment incentives are always present and that more generous patent protection implies that a larger share of the patent rent is spent on marketing, relative to R&D.     

FILES OF INDIVIDUAL DATA AND THEIR POTENTIALS FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH

In a statistical file system, data collected from different sources and at different dates are stored at an individual unit level. Thus, they may be linked and used for the preparation of statistics and for analytical purposes as the need arises. The statistical file system will provide a much improved data basis for empirical research in the social services including demography, economics, economic geography, sociology, education, labour, social medicine, criminology and social psychology.     

Effective demand and the terms of trade in a dual economy: a Kaldorian perspective

Along the line suggested by Nicholas Kaldor, the paper incorporatesinto the analysis of a dual economy effective demand as a problemof generation of agricultural surplus and its realisation intopurchasing power for industrial goods. Through this approach,it is shown how one obtains empirical predictions about unevensectoral growth rates, as well as an effect of the movementin the terms of trade on long-term industrial growth which iscontrary to that suggested by Lewis. The paper also specifiesthe process of dynamic adjustment of industrial growth in aself-reinforcing circular flow under conditions of sufficientlyhigh agricultural growth, extending the effective demand argumentin a dual economy.