Simulating Ruin Probabilities for a Class of Semimartingales by Importance Sampling Methods

We consider the problem of finding the probability of ruin when the risk process is assumed to be a special semimartingale with absolutely continuous characteristics. We show how the generalized Girsanov theorem can be used in connection with Monte Carlo simulation to obtain estimates of the ruin probabilities. It is shown by both analytical and numerical examples that these methods can be significantly better than ordinary simulations provided the new measure is chosen with some care.     

Thinking and feeling on the World Wide Web: the impact of product type and time on World Wide Web advertising effectiveness

This article focuses on the effectiveness of banner advertisements.Drawing from theory on functional versus expressive products and wear in versus wear out it argues that product type and time are important factors in World Wide Web (WWW) advertising. The results from a large empirical study are reported and show that responses to banner advertisements differ between functional and expressive products and over time. Functional product banner advertisements have higher initial click-throughs that quickly deteriorate and they have no effect through advertisement impressions. Expressive products need time to wear in as both click-through rates and positive brand attitudes from advertisement impressions increase with repeated exposures. These differences in consumer response are conceptualized as thinking and feeling on the WWW,thereby providing important implications for advertisers.     

An Experimental Analysis of the Effects of Non‐audit Services on Auditor Independence in Appearance in the European Union: Evidence from Germany

The provision of non‐audit services by the statutory auditor may have a negative impact on auditor independence. Therefore, the European Union decided to prevent auditors from offering a significant extent of non‐audit services to audit clients. Prior research has revealed that different advisory services have different effects on perceived auditor independence. This could be caused by differences in number and intensity of independence threats (self‐interest, familiarity, self‐review, advocacy). Therefore, this experimental study investigates the effect of such threats on independence perceptions in the case of German individual investors. Multivariate analyses indicate that a high self‐interest and a high‐familiarity threat may impair auditor independence in appearance. On the other hand, our findings do not reveal a significant effect of an existing advocacy threat on investors’ trust in auditor independence. A negative effect of a self‐review threat is not directly confirmed. However, the provision of services with regard to internal controls, and thus the self‐review threat, interacts with the self‐interest threat. They potentially impact perceived auditor independence negatively when non‐audit fees are high. In contrast, no significant interactions with familiarity are found. Based on these findings, a general prohibition of non‐audit services does not seem to be necessary. On the other hand, a non‐audit fees cap might be reasonable.     

CO2 abatement policy with learning-by-doing in renewable energy

This paper analyzes the implications of CO₂ abatement when there is endogenous technological change in renewable energy. A multi-sector numerical general equilibrium model for Denmark is proposed to reflect two basic assumptions about technological progress in renewable energy. First, there is learning-by-doing and unit costs of production are a decreasing function of cumulated output. Second, technological progress only benefits new vintages of capital. The learning-by-doing process is calibrated to match current projections for technological progress in wind-based electricity. The implications are a marked reduction in the total and marginal cost of abatement and a decline in the optimal level of near-term abatement.     

How costly is the Sarbanes Oxley Act? Evidence on the effects of the Act on corporate profitability

The Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) was intended to protect investors by improving the accuracy and reliability of corporate disclosures. However, critics have argued that the costs of SOX far outweigh its intended benefits. Prior studies based on stock-price reactions to SOX-related events document mixed evidence on the expected impact of SOX. In contrast, we provide evidence on the net realized costs of SOX by examining its impact on operating profitability. We find that average cash flows decline by 1.3% of total assets after SOX. These costs are more significant for smaller firms, for more complex firms, and for firms with lower-growth opportunities. Annually, these costs range from $6 million for smaller firms to $39 million for larger firms. Further, we document that net SOX-related costs are not limited to one-time expenses associated with internal-control design and implementation. In aggregate, for the 1428 firms in our sample, these costs amount to about $19 billion per year. Profitability is lower for up to four years post-SOX. To our knowledge, ours are the first estimates of the realized net costs imposed by SOX.     

Managerial ability and bank‐loan pricing

This paper examines the impact of borrowers’ managerial ability on lenders’ bank‐loan pricing and the channels through which managerial ability affects bank‐loan pricing. Using a large sample of US bank loans, we provide evidence that higher managerial ability is associated with lower bank‐loan prices. This effect is stronger in firms with high information risk, suggesting that an important channel for managerial ability to affect bank‐loan pricing is through improved financial disclosure to mitigate information asymmetry. The relationship is also stronger for firms with weak business fundamentals, implying that another channel is through improved business performance. Of these two mechanisms, path analysis suggests that the business‐fundamentals mechanism is the more important channel through which managerial ability affects bank‐loan pricing.     

Bundling and Unbundling in Public–Private Partnerships: Implications for Risk Sharing in Urban Transport Projects

Public–private partnership (PPP) projects may be organized in a variety of ways, depending on the level of integration of the so‐called Special Purpose Vehicle. Based on the analyses of four major PPP light rail projects in Spain, this article outlines two fundamentally different models of organizing the Special Purpose Vehicle in PPP projects; moreover, the article examines the central principles of these two different models of organizing the private sector Special Purpose Vehicle and their implications for risk sharing and project management in large‐scale infrastructure PPP projects.     

The corporation and its employees: A case story

One of the main objectives in the information society is to improve the quality of life. — Paying attention to the needs of people seems to be a key element in good ethical behaviour, says Tor Dahl, Managing Director of Manpower Scandinavia. In defining these needs, Manpower used Abraham Maslow's famous pyramid, his hierarchy of needs, as a model for trying to satisfy in practise the needs on each level. However, they went a step further, asking; what comes after Maslow? To mean something for others; togetherness and that people can be trusted and that they seek a purpose with their work, came out as answers. In his paper Mr. Dahl tells us how Manpower Scandinavia has developed a written set of values, which function as a basis for action and guidelines for behaviour, and where the key idea behind it all is to let people be self-managed. Furthermore, he shows us how Manpower has organised the company according to this conviction. — If your really have faith in people and show them trust, they will show you trust in return. Then you have a good basis for ethical behaviour, Tor Dahl concludes his paper.     

On systematic mortality risk and risk-minimization with survivor swaps

A new market for so-called mortality derivatives is now appearing with survivor swaps (also called mortality swaps), longevity bonds and other specialized solutions. The development of these new financial instruments is triggered by the increased focus on the systematic mortality risk inherent in life insurance contracts, and their main focus is thus to allow the life insurance companies to hedge their systematic mortality risk. At the same time, this new class of financial contract is interesting from an investor's point of view, since it increases the possibility for an investor to diversify the investment portfolio. The systematic mortality risk stems from the uncertainty related to the future development of the mortality intensities. Mathematically, this uncertainty is described by modeling the underlying mortality intensities via stochastic processes. We consider two different portfolios of insured lives, where the underlying mortality intensities are correlated, and study the combined financial and mortality risk inherent in a portfolio of general life insurance contracts. In order to hedge this risk, we allow for investments in survivor swaps and derive risk-minimizing strategies in markets where such contracts are available. The strategies are evaluated numerically.