Territorial identity and development: From topophilia to terraphilia

This paper brings about a conceptual and methodological framework for the study of topophilia and its enrichment in terms of development policy and actions seeking (re)affirmation of landscape-related and other territorial identity features. To this end, the results of an empirical verification of a newly introduced concept, named terraphilia, are presented. Records and assessments of the topophilia–terraphilia interface were carried out in the framework of the Identerra Model that enables empirical delimitation and systematization of the state (spatial fixes) and change (spatial flows) of natural, economic, societal and cultural features of territorial identity. The research area was the Oeste Region (a NUTS III, North-west of the Lisbon Metropolitan Area). The promotion of terraphilia may be important in the process of identification and assessment of strategically relevant elements of local and regional development, such as “sense of territorial belonging” and “territorial attractiveness”.     

A hybrid commodity price‐forecasting model applied to the sugar–alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision‐making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar–alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non‐observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous‐variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non‐observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.     

Strategic Partnership Between Private Organizations and Universities： The Search for Regional Development Through Solutions for Hospital Management

The public power and the private enterprise, the main agents of national economic and social development, when cooperating strategically, promote increased functional efficiency of their activities. In order to highlight the relevance of such partnership, this article aims to analyze the potential of actions jointly developed by private organizations and Brazilian universities. The research problem is lined in the field of health, which hosted actions developed between the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte （UFRN） and the Hospital Maternity Guiomar Fernandes （HMGF）, located in the city of Alexandria, in Rio Grande do Norte. The study emphasizes the shortcomings of this organization, the resolving power of the university in this scenario, and performs the analysis of the effects of this cooperation. The methodology used in this research was the case study in HMGF. With emphasis on fundraising and improving the informational management system, funding sources for projects of restructuring and expansion of the hospital were sought, as well as initiatives for developing hospital management softwares for small- and medium-sized organizations. As a result, the articulation between the university and the hospital provided the elaboration of a project for software development and the production of a project for physical restructuring and technological investment, aiming to expand the supply and quality of the hospital＇s services. The implementation of information systems, associated with investments in hospital infrastructure, providing increased efficiency in public assistance to the population, bringing both local and regional benefits, besides, providing the authorities with relevant data on the development of public policies.     

When times get tough,gold is golden

We investigate the dynamic behaviour of conditional correlations between the US market, gold and two gold financial proxies using a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation model over different market regimes. A comprehensive period of time is analysed covering approximately 37 years of daily data, from August 1976 to March 2013, as well as a shorter period, of about 15 years, from September 1998 to March 2013. Both periods include the recent sub-prime financial crisis. Market regimes are defined using bull/bear states and alternatively using volatility regimes from a three-state Markov-switching variance model. An index of US mining companies and a value-weighted portfolio of US gold mutual funds are treated as potential proxies for an investment in gold. Two important conclusions emerge from our study. The first is that, even in the context of a dynamic correlation analysis, gold is always a safe haven; negatively correlated with the stock market under adverse market conditions. The second is that, although the gold proxies considered here exhibit a low correlation with the stock market and therefore offer diversification benefits, they cannot be considered perfect substitutes of gold due to their lack of negative correlations with the market in times of turmoil.     

Carbon leakages: a general equilibrium view

The effectiveness of unilateral action to curb carbon emissions has been dismissed because of possible “carbon leakages”, this referring to the rise of emissions in non-participating countries. This paper offers a general equilibrium (GE) exploration of the key mechanisms and factors underlying the size of carbon leakages. We developed a two-region, two-goods simplified GE framework, incorporating three types of fossil fuels (coal, oil and low-carbon energy), international trade and capital mobility. The model was designed to make tractable extensive multidimensional sensitivity analysis. The results suggest that the coal supply elasticity plays a critical role, while substitution elasticities between traded goods and international capital mobility appear relatively less influential. The shape of the production function also matters for the size of the leakages. Confirming the results obtained with large computable GE models, for a wide range of parameters’ values, carbon leakages appear to be small. Therefore, the argument that unilateral carbon abatement action taken by a large group of countries (such as the Annex 1 group) is flawed by significant carbon leakages is not supported by our sensitivity analysis. The likelihood of small leakages favours in fact the formation of a worldwide coalition to stabilise climate change.     

Contribution to the study of PPP arrangements in airport development,management and operation

Following the liberalization wave in the airline sector, airports have been gradually taken out of the public sphere and open to the private initiative. This phenomenon is generally referred to as privatization, but not all the cases consist of, in fact, a full divestiture of assets. Although infrastructure management is undertaken by the private sector during a pre-defined period, usually 30 years or more, the property remains public or is transferred to the public domain after that period. This is a form of Public–Private Partnership (PPP) where two different models can be found: institutionalized PPP or a typical contractual regime, such as the concession arrangements. PPP options have been a “hot” topic over the last decade, but few studies can be found in the literature on the PPP projects development in airport systems, for example, as far as risk sharing is concerned. This paper looks at recent developments in airport “privatization”, distinguishing privatizations from PPP arrangements, through a case study approach, and establishing a comparative analysis of different PPP models used for airport management. Some comments are made about the Portuguese model and the announcement of future privatization.     

Conflict, Distribution and Population Growth

This paper studies an optimal foraging model where distributive conflicts among foragers emerge from population growth. It investigates distributive rules set to resolve the conflicts. Efficient distributive rules are the ones associated with the most efficient productive decisions. Unequal societies, where the ruling class or King maximizes the surplus, engender the choice of more efficient productive combinations and to a smaller population relative to egalitarian societies.     

Exponential rates for kernel density estimation under association

The estimation of density based on positive dependent samples has been studied recently with consistency and asymptotic normality results being obtained. In with regard to the characterization on decrease rates the results have been scarce. We prove two versions of an exponential inequality: one assuming stationarity and association alone and the other under a further assumption on the joint distributions of the sample. These inequalities are then used to prove exponential decrease rates for the kernel estimator of the density with a uniform version over compact sets. The conditions assumed impose convenient decrease rates on the covariance structure of the sample. Some examples supposing geometrical or polynomial decrease rates on the covariances that fulfill our assumptions are presented in the last section. Explicit almost sure rates are derived for geometrically decreasing covariances. Under the extra assumption on the joint distributions the rates are close to the best known ones for independent variables.     

Analysis of the promotion of cigarettes at the point of sale and its attractiveness to children

Smoking habit seriously affects public health in a number of direct and indirect ways. The study reported here took place in Brazil and examined the promotional activities of the tobacco industry at the point of sale, with particular reference to their impact on children. Tobacco control policies are generally in place in developed countries, and smokers typically develop the habit while still young. Trained researchers visited a stratified sample of 429 retail outlets in the city of São Paulo, comprising the local equivalents of bars, snack bars, luncheonettes and pubs. Data for analysis were collected by direct observation at the point of sale and interviews with the person deemed to be in charge of the outlet visited. The results indicate that the tobacco industry is displaying its products within full view of children and making use of the sales' incentives offered to the retailer. The findings contribute significantly to the study of the effect of promotion at the point of sale on young smokers and can inform the policy debate on the increasing regulation of tobacco marketing promotional methods.