中国通胀猛于虎，人行继续紧字决

尽管2008年初遭遇50年一遇的雪灾,且受到美国次贷危机的冲击,中国经济高速列车仍一往无前。面对今年一季度通涨率节节攀升的状况,中国的决策者表现出继续维持紧缩货币政策的坚定决心。     

Authors’ Reply: Building Better Retirement Income Models - Discussion by Robert J. Myers; Anna Rappaport,January 1997

Abstract

In recent decades, as the use of derivatives by financial institutions has expanded, the shortcomings of historical cost accounting approaches have become increasingly apparent. Since derivatives can create large exposures to risk that go unnoticed under historical standards, the accounting industry has focused on how to change the standards so that these risks are reflected appropriately in a company’s accounting statements. New standards such as SFAS 115 and SFAS 133 have been adopted in part to achieve this goal. However, both of these standards use a piecemeal approach to risk measurement that may be adding to the problem rather than creating a solution. This paper will use a simple equity-indexed annuity to illustrate the problem with historical cost accounting and with the standards that have been adopted to correct it. The paper then argues that the only legitimate means of reflecting risk properly on a company’s accounting statements is to adopt full fair value accounting for all assets and liabilities on the company’s books.     

Estimating International Adverse Selection in Annuities

Abstract

It is well known that purchasers of annuities have lower mortality than the general population. Less widely known is the quantitative extent of this adverse selection and how it varies across countries. This paper proposes and applies several methods for comparing alternative mortality tables and illustrates their impact on annuity valuation for men and women in the U.S. and the U.K. Our results indicate that the relatively lower mortality among older Americans who purchase annuities is equivalent to using a discount rate that is 50–100 basis points below the U.K. rate for compulsory annuitants or 10–20 basis points lower than the U.K. rate for voluntary annuitants. We then draw on the mortality experience of over half a billion lives to estimate mortality differentials due to varying degrees of adverse selection controlling for country, gender, and an allowance for mortality improvements. Results show that adverse selection associated with the purchase of individual annuities reduces mortality rates by at least 25% in the international context. We also find that the system of mortality tables used to value Japanese annuities is quite distinct from international norms.?     

Using Engel curves to measure CPI bias for Indonesia

To measure real income growth over time, a price index is needed to adjust for changes in the cost of living. The consumer price index (CPI) is often used for this task; but several country studies show that it is a biased measure of such changes, leading to potentially inaccurate estimates of the rate of real income growth. This paper calculates CPI bias for urban Indonesia by estimating food Engel curves for households with the same level of CPI-deflated incomes at four different points in time between 1993 and 2008. The results suggest that CPI bias was negative during the 1997–98 crisis but has been positive since 2000. From 1993 to 2008, CPI bias averaged 4% annually, equivalent to almost one-third of the measured inflation rate.     

The efficiency of sponsor and participant portfolio choices in 401(k) plans

To evaluate the extent of inefficient behavior in 401(k) pensions, now the dominant form of retirement saving in America, we attribute inefficiencies separately to the employer's menu design versus participant portfolio elections. Results from our analysis of over 1000 plans and a million participants demonstrate that most sponsors offer efficient investment menus, but participants undo this by constructing inefficient portfolios thus reducing their potential retirement wealth by one-fifth. Because participants are the main source of inefficient pension investment choices, strategies targeting their behavior may be useful — including improved default investment strategies or educational programs. We also show that the number of options offered is less important than the range of funds provided when designing 401(k) menus.