关于宏观经济政策的若干反思

大稳健时期让宏观经济学家和政府决策者误以为大家已熟练掌握了宏观经济政策运用，本次危机显然对此观点提出了挑战。为此，国际货币基金组织（IMF）专家对危机前的宏观经济政策进行了重视审视，分析了主要共识，指出其中存在的失误，以及哪些危机前的框架原则当前仍能适用，并尝试建立新的宏观经济政策框架。建议应该对通货膨胀目标进行重视审视，协调运用货币政策和监管政策，统一通货膨胀目标制与汇率政策，更广泛地提供流动性，注意积蓄财政政策空间，设计更好的财政自动稳定机制。     

Introduction: Postnational Politics in the European Union

During the Cold War, “buffer” or “bastion” seemed a popular metaphor to describe Turkey. After the Cold War, “bridge,” (and, to some extent, the “crossroad”) metaphor started to dominate the Turkish foreign policy D??course. This article traces the use of “bridge” metaphor in this D??course in the post-Cold War period by the Turkish foreign policy elite. It develops two arguments. First, the word bridge is a “metaphor of vision” combining Turkey's perceived geographical exceptionalism with an identity and a role at the international level. As a “metaphor of vision,” the employment of the word “bridge” highlighted Turkey's liminality and justified some of its foreign policy actions to Eurasia and then to the Middle East. Second, because the bridge metaphor was used in different context to justify different foreign policy choices, its meaning has changed, illustrating that metaphors are not static constructs. It concludes by Say?ng that the continuous use of “bridge” metaphor might reinforce Turkey's “liminality,” placing Turkey in a less classifiable category than the regular “othering” practices.     

The Design of an Optimal Area Yield Crop Insurance Contract

This article focuses on the design of a crop insurance contract when the indemnity is based on the aggregate yield of a surrounding geographical area. Coinsurance under a critical yield often provides an efficient sharing of systemic risk. Under a linear relationship between individual yield and aggregate yield, the optimal form depends on the individual beta coefficient, which measures the sensitivity of individual yield to aggregate yield. The optimal hedging position of the producer on the yield options market is to buy put options or call options depending upon whether his beta coefficient is positive or negative.     

An Overview of Public Consultation Mechanisms Developed to Address the Ethical and Social Issues Raised by Biotechnology

Biotechnology, whether applied to plants, animals, or humans is a rapidly expanding industry. Citizens, often organized in groups or organizations, wish to express their views and even to participate in the decision-making process that authorized to the marketing of new biotechnology derived products. In order to allow participation of the public in the debate on the ethical and social issues raised by biotechnology, it is important to select appropriate consultation mechanisms. Much may be learned from the experiences and mechanisms used in various countries.Part I of this report surveys various institutional models for public consultation activities. Part II then reviews various mechanisms used to address ethical and social issues with public participation and Part III highlights the strengths and weaknesses of these mechanisms in a Canadian context.     

Domestic airline alliances and consumer welfare

This article investigates the consumer welfare consequences of the recent code‐share agreement between Continental Airlines and Northwest Airlines. We develop a discrete choice model based on individual flight characteristics. This structural model recognizes that consumers (i) may have heterogeneous preferences for flight attributes, and (ii) may face different prices for the same flight. The empirical methodology also deals with the measurement error problem stemming from the absence of consumer‐level data on prices. The estimation results suggest that, whereas the code‐share agreement did not impact consumers significantly on average, it increased the average surplus of connecting passengers but decreased the average surplus of nonstop passengers. Interestingly, the magnitude of our welfare results may be attributed in large part to changes in product characteristics other than prices.     

Public health impact of comprehensive hepatitis C screening and treatment in the French baby-boomer population

Objective: To estimate the public health impact of comprehensive hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening and access to all-oral, interferon (IFN)-free direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in the French baby-boomer population (1945–1965 birth cohorts).

Methods: A sequential, multi-cohort, health-state transition model was developed to assess the impact of different hepatitis C screening and treatment strategies on clinical and economic outcomes in the 1945–1965 birth cohorts. Patients newly-diagnosed with chronic HCV were projected each year from 2016 to 2036 under three screening scenarios (70% [low], 75% [intermediate], and 80% [high] HCV awareness in 2036). Healthcare costs and clinical outcomes (number of liver-related deaths, quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs], life-years [LYs] spent in sustained virologic response [SVR] or with decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, or liver transplant) were compared among five treatment strategies (no antiviral therapy; IFN?+?ribavirin?+?protease inhibitor for fibrosis stages F2–F4, IFN-based DAAs for stages F2–F4, IFN-free DAAs for stages F2–F4, and IFN-free DAAs for stages F0–F4).

Results: Diagnosis of HCV genotype 1 was projected for 4,953, 6,600, and 8,368 individuals in the low, intermediate, and high screening scenarios, respectively. In the intermediate scenario, IFN-free DAAs for stages F0–F4 had a favorable cost-effectiveness profile vs IFN-based or IFN-free treatment strategies for F2–F4 and offered the greatest return on investment (0.899 LYs gained in SVR and 0.933 QALYs per €10,000 invested).

Conclusion: Comprehensive HCV screening and access to all-oral, IFN-free DAAs is a cost-effective strategy that could help diminish the upcoming burden of HCV in the French baby-boomer population.     

The water footprint of energy from biomass: A quantitative assessment and consequences of an increasing share of bio-energy in energy supply

This paper assesses the water footprint (WF) of different primary energy carriers derived from biomass expressed as the amount of water consumed to produce a unit of energy (m³/GJ). The paper observes large differences among the WFs for specific types of primary bio-energy carriers. The WF depends on crop type, agricultural production system and climate. The WF of average bio-energy carriers grown in the Netherlands is 24 m³/GJ, in the US 58 m³/GJ, in Brazil 61 m³/GJ, and in Zimbabwe 143 m³/GJ. The WF of bio-energy is much larger than the WF of fossil energy. For the fossil energy carriers, the WF increases in the following order: uranium (0.1 m³/GJ), natural gas (0.1 m³/GJ), coal (0.2 m³/GJ), and finally crude oil (1.1 m³/GJ). Renewable energy carriers show large differences in their WF. The WF for wind energy is negligible, for solar thermal energy 0.3 m³/GJ, but for hydropower 22 m³/GJ. Based on the average per capita energy use in western societies (100 GJ/capita/year), a mix from coal, crude oil, natural gas and uranium requires about 35 m³/capita/year. If the same amount of energy is generated through the growth of biomass in a high productive agricultural system, as applied in the Netherlands, the WF is 2420 m³. The WF of biomass is 70 to 400 times larger than the WF of the other primary energy carriers (excluding hydropower). The trend towards larger energy use in combination with an increasing contribution of energy from biomass will enlarge the need for fresh water. This causes competition with other claims, such as water for food.     

From data problems to questions about sources: elements towards an institutional analysis of population-level organisational change. The case of British building societies, 1845–1980

Abstract

Institutional analyses of population-level organisational change seem particularly well suited to the task of further incorporating historical concerns into organisational theory, as has been advocated by a growing number of authors, both within business history and management and organisation studies. Such an approach has been applied, in particular, to studies of shifts in organisational forms within the early-twentieth-century US thrift industry. The aim of this article, building on the case study of British building societies during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, is to uncover both the promises and the limitations of this approach in terms of historical epistemology and methodology, and suggest ways to further consolidate the historical grounding of similar approaches to organisational change. In particular, detailed attention paid to sources and to periodisation may point towards improvements in methodology, both within historical institutionalism and neo-institutionalist history.