Understanding farmers' decision making processes and improving managerial assistance

Few studies have been made of how farmers make decisions. Most research and teaching has focused on the decision event, not the whole process. Current knowledge of the decision making process is reviewed and described as a set of eight functions or elements: values and goals, problem detection, problem definition, observation, analysis, development of intention, implementation, and responsibility bearing. The relevancy of this view of farmers' decision making behavior is tested through a series of case studies. Based on these observations, the conceptual model of the decision process is revised to include four phases and four subprocesses. The four phases are problem detection, problem definition, analysis and choice, and implementation. The four subprocesses are searching and paying attention, planning, evaluating and choosing, and checking the choice. In addition, we note that farmers prefer the ability to continually update their evaluation and plans, a qualitative vs. quantitative analysis, a “quick and simple” vs. detailed and elaborate analysis, small tests and incremental implementation, and feed forward and compensation vs. post-implementation evaluation. Implications of this fuller view of the decision making process for management assistance are discussed.     

Using accounting ratios to distinguish between Islamic and conventional banks in the GCC region

This study determines whether it is possible to distinguish between conventional and Islamic banks in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region on the basis of financial characteristics alone. Islamic banks operate under different principles, such as risk sharing and the prohibition of interest, yet both types of banks face similar competitive conditions. The combination of effects makes it unclear whether financial ratios will differ significantly between the two categories of banks. We input 26 financial ratios into logit, neural network, and k-means nearest neighbor classification models to determine whether researchers or regulators could use these ratios to distinguish between the two types of banks. Although the means of several ratios are similar between the two categories of banks, non-linear classification techniques (k-means nearest neighbors and neural networks) are able to correctly distinguish Islamic from conventional banks in out-of-sample tests at about a 92% success rate.     

The Linkages between Dividends and Earnings

The purpose of this paper is to empirically test the linkages between dividends and earnings. Using the Granger test of statistical causality, it is found that some firms use dividends for signaling, some follow a residual policy, and some firms simultaneously signal and follow a residual policy. Segmenting firms according to dividend policy, the results indicate that firms that follow a residual or signaling dividend policy tend to have a higher growth in asset turnover, but a lower growth in revenues. Signaling firms also tend to be smaller, have higher variability in revenues, and use less debt throught time.     

An Economic Analysis of Teenage Fertility

Abstract . The relationship between the probability of a teenage birth and various independent variables representing fecundity, attitudes, resources, and the economic opportunities for a sample of teenage females drawn from the 1980 census is examined. A theoretical framework, based on Becker's model, is employed to describe the birth-decision process and tested using a logit technique. The findings suggest that receipt of public assistance income and perceived economic opportunities are more important in explaining fertility probabilities among older (18–19 years old) teenagers. Among younger teens, accessibility to family planning and abortion services, and religious attitudes toward family planning ate more important predictors of fertility.     

Board ownership and IPO returns

This study examines the role of the board of directors for IPO pricing irregularities. Theory suggests that initial underpricing may be the result of asymmetric information and the long-run underperformance may be the result of managerial mismanagement of new funds due to agency conflicts. A strong board of directors can potentially reduce both asymmetric information and agency problems. We find that the structure of the board is related to IPO pricing anomalies. Initial returns are directly related to share ownership by insiders and the percentage of independent outsiders, and long-run returns are directly related to share ownership by insiders.     

Supply chain risk, simulation, and vendor selection

This paper considers three types of risk evaluation models within supply chains: chance constrained programming (CCP), data envelopment analysis (DEA), and multi-objective programming (MOP) models. Various risks are modeled in the form of probability and simulation of specific probability distribution in risk-embedded attributes is conducted in these three types of risk evaluation models. We model a supply chain consisting of three levels and use simulated data with representative distributions. Results from three models as well as simulation models are compared and analysis is conducted. The results show that the proposed approach allows decision makers to perform trade-off analysis among expected costs, quality acceptance levels, and on-time delivery distributions. It also provides alternative tools to evaluate and improve supplier selection decisions in an uncertain supply chain environment.     

Estimating the Causal Effect of Entry on Generic Drug Prices Using Hatch–Waxman Exclusivity

Competition among generics helps keep drug prices low and control medical costs. Good estimates of the effect on price of the entry of another generic competitor would inform competition policy and test oligopoly theories. However, identifying the causal effect of entry is difficult since the number of firms that compete in a market is endogenously determined. We exploit provisions of the 1984 Hatch–Waxman Act to identify a causal effect. We find that ignoring endogenous selection into generic drug markets imparts a significant downward bias to the estimates of the effects of two and three competitors on generic drug prices.