Bond Option Valuation for Non‐Markovian Interest Rate Processes

The standard method for valuing a European option on a bond portfolio is developed by Jamshidian. He shows that under certain circumstances the payoff from a bond option can be expressed as a portfolio of payoffs on discount bond options, allowing the option to be valued as a portfolio of options. A limitation of this approach is that it cannot be applied to non‐Markovian interest rate processes. This paper develops a method for the valuation of a European option on a bond portfolio that can be applied to both Markovian and non‐Markovian interest rate processes.     

Profit Margins in Mexico's Manufacturing Industry: an Econometric Study

Prices, wages and profit margins in Mexico have varied considerably. The purpose of this study is to analyze the evolution of profit margins in the Mexican manufacturing industry during the last two decades and to provide an explanation for the changes. The econometric study shows that surges in the exchange rate provoke increases in prices, both because imported input costs rise and because pressures from foreign competition are relaxed when domestic prices of imported goods rise. A second factor influencing margins is trade openness. Third, the level of profit margins also depends positively on the level of labor costs. An increase in labor costs tends to be passed along in a more than proportional manner to prices. Finally, an increase in interest rates seems to stimulate increases in profit margins, at least in some manufacturing divisions.     

Foreign exchange exposure of “domestic” corporations

Unlike prior studies on foreign exchange risk that have focused on multinational companies, this paper documents that domestic companies face significant foreign exchange exposure. Indeed, we document that on average domestic company foreign exchange exposure is not significantly different from the exposures faced by multinational firms. As expected, the number of domestic firms with significant foreign exchange exposure increases with the exposure estimation horizon. More interestingly, the level of domestic firm exposure is significantly negatively related to firm size and asset turnover, and positively related to the market to book ratio and financial leverage. Our results have important implications for managers, policy makers, and accounting standards.     

FROM THE WAR ON POVERTY TO WELFARE REFORM: HOW THE AMERICAN UNDERSTANDING OF THE CAUSES OF POVERTY CHANGED

The American understanding of the causes of poverty has changed significantly since the War on Poverty was launched in 1964. It was then commonly believed that jobs were unavailable to the poor and that poverty should be reduced by doles. Today most observers contend that jobs are available for the poor, and that poverty stems from self-defeating behaviours that doles exacerbate.     

Exploring the structure of ethical attributions as a component of the consumer decision model: The vicarious versus personal perspective

The managerial ethics literature is used as a base for the inclusion of Ethical Attribution, as an element in the consumer's decision process. A situational model of ethical consideration in consumer behavior is proposed and examined for Personal vs. Vicarious effects. Using a path analytic approach, unique structures are reported for Personal and Vicarious situations in the evaluation of a seller's unethical behavior. An attributional paradigm is suggested to explain the results. Joel Whalen is an Assistant Professor of Marketing at DePaul University, Chicago. He has published articles in Psychology & Marketing, Journal of Business Research, and Journal of Business Ethics. His research has been published in the proceedings of the American Marketing Association's Micro-Computers in Marketing Conference; Atlantic Marketing Association; the American Marketing Association Conference on Culture and Sub-Cultural Influences; Northeast Decision Science Institute, Southern Marketing Association, and Decision Sciences Institute. Robert E. Pitts, is Professor and Chair of the Department of Marketing and the Director of the Kellstadt Center for Marketing Analysis and Planning at DePaul University. He served as a member of the faculty of Jacksonville State University, the University of Notre Dame and the University of Mississippi. Dr. Pitts' research has appeared in numerous publications including the Journal of Marketing, Journal of Bank Research, Journal of Advertising, Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Marketing Education, Journal of Business Research, Journal of Social Psychology, Southern Economic Review, Journal of Travel Research, Journal of Behavioral Economics, The Mid-South Journal of Economics, Psychology and Marketing, Marketing and Media Decisions and Journal of Insurance Issues and Practices. Dr. Pitts is the editor of Personal Values and Consumer Psychology (Lexington Publishers, and co-author of Bank Marketing, A Guide to Strategic Planning, and Effective Bank Marketing Issues, Techniques and Application. Over the past decade, Dr. Pitts has served as a consultant to such firms as General Motors Corporation, Congolium Corp-Kinder Division, National Standard Steel Corp, WalMart Corp Training Programs, Illinois State Chamber of Commerce and Council of State Chambers of Commerce. John K. Wong teaches International Marketing Management and Consumer Behavior at DePaul University. He served as a member of the faculty of the University of Missouri at Columbia and Washington State University. Dr. Wong's research has appeared in numerous publications including the International Marketing Review, Journal of Business Research, Journal of Ambulatory Care Management, International Journal of Bank Marketing and the proceedings of the American Marketing Association, Association for Consumer Research, Academy of Marketing Science, Academy of International Business and Pan-Pacific Business Association.     

Actual and perceived consumer vigilance in the retail grocery industry

Economic theory suggests that price competition is in part driven by actively searching buyers. An exploratory study in a major midwestern grocery market revealed that executives responsible for pricing decisions overestimate the size of the price-driven shopping segment. The reasons behind this perception and its impact on pricing decisions are examined.     

Preference aggregation and repeat buying in households

Marketing researchers have long used brand switching analyses and Markov transition matrices to gain insights into managerial problems. Almost without exception, this work makes (inappropriate) inferences about individual consumers by analyzing household-level data. This paper presents a procedure based on the distribution of run lengths in household level panel data that allows more insights into the choice behavior of the individuals in the household. We test these procedures in a large simulation study by attempting to recover the underlying (known) structure of the process generating a string of panel data. Finally, we use the procedure to classify the purchase behavior, with respect to powdered soft drinks, of a set of households in a panel. Our results show that marketing scientists have the potential to learn and test more hypotheses about the individuals in a household by examining the distribution of run lengths.We gratefully acknowledge Professor Bari Harlam of the University of Rhode Island for providing the panel data.     

Intraday Price Formation in U.S. Equity Index Markets

The market for U.S. equity indexes presently comprises floor‐traded index futures contracts, exchange‐traded funds (ETFs), electronically traded, small‐denomination futures contracts (E‐minis), and sector ETFs that decompose the S&P 500 index into component industry portfolios. This paper empirically investigates price discovery in this environment. For the S&P 500 and Nasdaq‐100 indexes, most of the price discovery occurs in the E‐mini market. For the S&P 400 MidCap index, price discovery is shared between the regular futures contract and the ETF. The S&P 500 ETF contributes markedly to price discovery in the sector ETFs, but there are only minor effects in the reverse direction.     

Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior

The emergence of Bayesian methodology has facilitated respondent-level conjoint models, and deriving utilities from choice experiments has become very popular among those modeling product line decisions or new product introductions. This review begins with a paradox of why experimental choices should mirror market behavior despite clear differences in content, structure and motivation. It then addresses ways to design the choice tasks so that they are more likely to reflect market choices. Finally, it examines ways to model the results of the choice experiments to better mirror both underlying decision processes and potential market choices. Co-chairs. Author order is alphabetical.