Trade intensity,country size and corruption

Abstract. Several authors claim to provide evidence that governmental corruption is less severe in countries where trade intensity is higher or populations are smaller. We argue that theory is highly ambiguous on these questions, and demonstrate that empirical links between corruption and trade intensity – or country size, strongly related to trade intensity – are sensitive to sample selection bias. Most available corruption indicators provide ratings only for those countries in which multinational investors have the greatest interest: these tend to include almost all large nations, but among small nations only those that are well-governed. We find that the relationship between corruption and trade intensity disappears, using newer corruption indicators with substantially increased country coverage. Similarly, the relationship between corruption and country size weakens or disappears using samples less subject to selection bias. Received: July 2001 / accepted: April 2002 We thank Anand Swamy and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions, Paul Schorosch for able research assistance, and Ray Fisman, Roberta Gatti, Aart Kraay, and Shang-jin Wei for kindly providing data. The conclusions of this paper are not intended to represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.     

Preferential trade agreements and manufactured goods exports: does it matter whom you PTA with?

This article explores two questions. First, do preferential trade agreements (PTAs) affect manufactured goods exports of developing countries? Second, does it matter for developing countries whom they sign the PTAs with? We find that the answer to both questions is yes. Using bilateral manufactured goods exports data from 28 developing countries during 1978–2005; we find that South–South PTAs have a significantly positive effect on manufactured goods exports. In contrast, no such effect is detected in the case of South–North PTAs. We confirmed the robustness of these findings to estimation methodology, sample selection, time period, zero trade flows and multilateral trade resistance.     

Does expenditure in public governance guarantee less corruption? Non-linearities and complementarities of the rule of law

Corruption is an endemic societal problem with profound implications in the development of nations. In combating this issue, cross-national evidence supporting the effectiveness of the rule of law seems at odds with poorly realized outcomes from reforms inspired in the academic literature. This paper provides an explanation for such contradiction. By building a computational approach, we develop three methodological novelties into the empirical study of corruption: (1) modeling government expenditure as a more adequate intervention variable than traditional indicators, (2) generating large within-country variation by means of bottom-up simulations (instead of cross-national data pooling), and (2) accounting for all possible interactions between covariates through a spillover network. Our estimates suggest that, the least developed a country is, the more difficult it is to find the right combination of policies that lead to reductions in corruption. We characterize this difficulty through a rugged landscape that governments navigate when changing the total budget size and the relative expenditure towards the rule of law. Importantly our method helps identifying the—country-specific—policy issues that complement the rule of law in the fight against corruption.

     

Exposure to Provincial and National Information and Firm Performance: Crisis Period Evidence from China

This paper examines the impact of exposure to provincial and national information on the performance of non-financial Chinese firms during the recent global financial crisis (2007 to 2009). The results show that firms with higher level of exposure to provincial information are affected less by the crisis than firms with higher level of exposure to national information. The results are also robust across various proxies of firm performance. The main contribution of this paper is to highlight sources of value for Chinese firms during the recent financial crisis. More importantly, this paper uses publicly available information to draw attention on the role played by national and provincial sources of information in defining firm performance during the recent global financial crisis.

     

2017 KLEIN LECTURE: THE SCIENCE OF USING SCIENCE: TOWARD AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE THREATS TO SCALABILITY

Policymakers are increasingly facing the challenge of scaling empirical insights. This study provides a theoretical lens into the science of how to use science. Through a simple model, we highlight three elements of the scale-up problem: (1) when does evidence become actionable; (2) properties of the population; and (3) properties of the situation. Until these three areas are fully understood, the threats to scalability will render any scaling exercise as particularly vulnerable. Accordingly, our work represents a call for more policy-based evidence, whereby the nature and extent of the various threats to scalability are explored in the original research program.     

How should resource‐rich countries diversify? Estimating forward‐linkage effects of mining on productivity growth

Resource‐rich countries willing to diversify their economies are faced with dual policy options; to either develop resource‐based industries, or diversify their economies as a whole and invest into new activities that are not necessarily resource dependent. Not only does the economic theory fail to provide a consensual guidance on this issue but empirical evidence is also lacking. This paper empirically assesses which of these two patterns of diversification is associated with higher productivity growth outcomes for resource‐rich countries. Using panel data for 50 resource‐abundant countries over the period 1970–2010, I find that stronger downstream linkages to mining and extractives do not lead to productivity enhancements. Broadening and diversifying the production structure as a whole offers potential for productivity growth at higher levels of income.     

The determinants of FDI location choice in China: a discrete-choice analysis

This study addresses two questions: What are the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) location choice in China? What are the factors that determine investors’ choice between ‘Economic zones’ in China on one hand, and ‘other cities’ of China on the other hand? This study shows that FDI location choice is sensitive both on the endowment conditions in different regions/cities/economic zones in China as well as on the country of origin of the FDI. Based on a data set of 1218 observations, the results of the binary logit regressions indicate that the protection of intellectual rights, agglomeration economies, investments in education and gross regional product affect the location choice of FDI in China. This choices, however, varies depending on the origin of the FDI. Policy makers can use these findings to channel FDI to targeted regions/ cities.     

Trade Flows,Exchange Rate Uncertainty,and Financial Depth: Evidence from 28 Emerging Countries

This article investigates the effects of real exchange rate uncertainty on manufactures exports from 28 emerging economies, representing 82% of all developing country manufactures exports, and explores the sources of heterogeneity in the uncertainty effects by controlling for the direction of trade (south‐north or south‐south), and the level of financial development of the exporting country. The empirical results show that for more than half of the countries, the uncertainty effect is unidirectional, either south‐south or south‐north, and the median impact is negative. In addition, while we find that financial development augments trade, exchange rate shocks can negate this effect. Last but not least, trade among developing economies improves export growth under exchange rate shocks.     

Retail bank selection in developed and developing countries: A cross‐national study of students' bank‐selection criteria

This exploratory research article is concerned with students' selection of retail banks in the United States and Ghana. It is a comparative cross‐national study aimed at revealing the factors determining retail bank selection among students in different environmental settings. The key objective is to establish if there are any significant differences and/or similarities in students' selection of retail banks in developed and developing economies. A similar data‐collection method was employed in the United States and Ghana to facilitate constructive comparison. The results identified four key factors—convenience, competence, recommendation by parents, and free banking and/or no bank charges—to be consistent across the two economies. The recommendation of the study is that in the context of an open and liberalized market environment, retail bank marketing strategies should be standardized irrespective of the national development stage. It concludes that retail bank managers particularly in developing countries should learn to provide consistent and good customer care. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.