VIX futures term structure and the expectations hypothesis

Tests of the expectations hypothesis reveal that the slope of the VIX futures term structure predicts the direction but not the magnitude of the evolution of the short-end of the curve, but predicts neither the direction nor the magnitude of short-term changes in the long-end of the curve. Relative value seeking spread trades, constructed to exploit such violations, deliver excess returns with annualized Sharpe ratios equal or greater than those of volatility-writing strategies deployed by VIX ETN's for a majority of the 32 spread trade combinations tested. I demonstrate that profits from beta-neutral variations of the spread trades, which are not compensation for taking on equity downside risk by design, are propagated by inflows of capital into VIX futures markets, after controlling for factors that measure changes in the availability of hedge fund capital, risk appetite, and momentum. At the heart of profits, and by extension the term structure anomalies, is a disproportionally elevated basis propagated by long VIX demand that enters the futures market through ETN channels.     

Longitudinal analysis of entrepreneurship and competitiveness dynamics in Latin America

This study analyzes the relationship between entrepreneurial dynamics in Latin-American countries and the level of competitiveness these countries show. Based on the research conducted by Wennekers et al. [Small Business Economics, 24(3):293–309, 2005] that demonstrates a U-shaped relationship between the country’s rate of entrepreneurship and its level of competitiveness and economic development, we hypothesize that Latin-American countries have a descending behaviour under the U-shaped curve approach. The results from three regression models support this hypothesis and suggest that competitiveness and economic growth deter entrepreneurial dynamics on Latin-American countries. We discuss that Latin-American countries need to improve some structural factors to achieve a high level of entrepreneurial dynamics.

Is socially responsible investment useful in Mexico? A multi-factor and ex-ante review

The present paper continues the firsts reviews made to socially responsible investment in Mexico. We extended these reviews by using a non-parametric multivariate equality test, along with a multi-factor market cap model, and a Monte Carlo simulation. Our results show that the IPCS index, the IPCcomp and the IPC have a statistically equal mean-variance performance, suggesting that this sort of investment style (SRI) is a good substitute of the broad market investment style in the long term. Among the causes of this finding is the fact that the IPCS and the IPCcomp indexes have almost the same large and small cap stock concentration and the IPC index (a large-cap one) is not as diversified and mean-variance efficient as the former.     

Could immigration explain wage inequality in a skill-biased technological model?

The aim of this paper is to evaluate how immigration of high-skilled workers affects the technological-knowledge bias and, in turn, the skill premium in the host countries, in particular bearing in mind the recent experience in a number of European countries. We study a skill-biased dynamic general equilibrium R&D growth model in which the standard R&D technology is modified so wage inequality results from the direction of the technological knowledge, which in turn is induced by the price channel. By solving the transitional dynamics numerically, we show that the rise of the skill premium arises from the price-channel effect, complemented with a mechanism that reflects the impact of immigration on R&D. According to our quantitative results, our model is able to account for a significant proportion of the dynamics of the skill premium in the data for a number of European countries, thus, suggesting that differences in labour skills between immigrants and natives are, in practice, an important source of skill premium variation over time.     

Direct finance in the Dutch Golden Age†

This article analyses private credit operations in Amsterdam in the seventeenth century to explain the absence of deposit banks. The financial system was highly segmented and a combination of declining business margins and narrow interest rate spreads cut the scope for deposit taking. Moreover, merchants had easy access to credit in the form of short‐term loans which could be easily rolled over, or replaced at will. This technique worked well because a market developed providing key functions to control risk and price loans accordingly.     

Feasible implementation of taxation methods

This paper studies implementation of taxation methods in one-commodity environments in which the incomes of the agents are unknown to the planner. Feasibility out of equilibrium imposes that the mechanism depend on the environment. We present two mechanisms. The first one, which requires complete information, implements every taxation method in Nash, strong and coalition-proof equilibrium. The second, where informational requirements are relaxed, implements a large class of consistent and monotone methods in subgame perfect equilibrium. Neither mechanism employs the off-equilibrium devices used by the general theory. Under fully private information no method is implementable. Received: 12 March 1997 / Accepted: 21 July 1998     

Tax competition for foreign direct investments and the nature of the incumbent firm

We investigate tax/subsidy competition for foreign direct investments (FDI) between countries of different size when a domestic firm is the incumbent in the largest market and we study how the nature (public or private) of the incumbent firm affects policy competition. We show that, differently from the case of a private firm, the country hosting the incumbent always benefits from FDI if the domestic firm is a public welfare‐maximizing firm. We also show that the public firm acts as a disciplinary device for the foreign multinational that will always choose the efficient welfare‐maximizing location. An efficiency‐enhancing role of policy competition may then arise only when the domestic incumbent is a private firm, whereas tax competition is always wasteful in the presence of a public firm.     

Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents’ expectations through symbolic regression

Agents’ perceptions on the state of the economy can be affected during economic crises. Tendency surveys are the main source of agents’ expectations. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on agents’ expectations. With this aim, we evaluate the capacity of survey-based expectations to anticipate economic growth in the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom. We propose a symbolic regression (SR) via genetic programming approach to derive mathematical functional forms that link survey-based expectations to GDP growth. By combining the main SR-generated indicators, we generate estimates of the evolution of GDP. Finally, we analyse the effect of the crisis on the formation of expectations, and we find an improvement in the capacity of agents’ expectations to anticipate economic growth after the crisis in all countries except Germany.     

The risk-shifting effect and the value of a warrant

The exercise of a warrant leads to the well-known dilution phenomenon, the effects of which have been extensively studied over the last four decades. In contrast, the existing literature has paid inadequate attention to the volatility spillover between stockholders and warrant holders. This ‘risk-shifting effect’ has significant implications for warrant pricing, since any formula that assumes a constant volatility of stock returns produces a bias. In this paper we show that a CEV process with a specific elasticity parameter properly models the stochastic volatility of stock returns for a firm with warrants outstanding. In addition, we propose an approximate analytical formula, exclusively based on observable market variables, that is able to absorb the risk-shifting bias.     

US deficit sustainability revisited: a multiple structural change approach

In this article we re-examine the long-run sustainability of US budget deficits, using Bai and Perron's multiple structural change approach. While the deficit would have been weakly sustainable over the full sample (1947:1–2005:3), strong sustainability would appear only between January 1982 and February 1996.