Speculative hyperinflations and currency substitution

We propose a rational expectations framework for understanding speculative hyperinflations that end in response to ‘orthodox’ stabilization programs. Motivated by a strong degree of hysteresis in the stock of real balances after the end of hyperinflations, we provide a cash-and-credit model in which the money demand exhibits persistence because individuals can establish long-lasting credit relationships. We use the model to show that if hysteresis in real balances is possible then a fiscal–monetary reform that successfully stops a speculative hyperinflation may fail to prevent it. We argue that speculative hyperinflationary equilibria are consistent with some key stylized facts observed in extreme hyperinflations.     

Analytical derivation and behavioral interpretation of a model combining trip generation and distribution

The disjointedness of the planning sequence of trip generation and trip distribution is the main subject of this paper. We approach this disjointedness problem by analyzing the central properties of the independently discovered balancing methods of trip-distribution models in relation to two critical issues. First, in the current planning sequence, it is usual to start by forecasting how many trips will begin (production) and end (attraction) in each zone. This forecasting is done by estimating the production of trips independently from the attraction of trips and vice versa, and then forcing some mechanical balance of total trips being generated in the urban system. Second, in the same planning sequence, the output of this trip-generation process is the input to the next one (trip-distribution process): forecasting the matrix that describes the number of trips between each pair of zones. This forecasting is done in general by updating an equivalent obsolete matrix that was obtained from an origin-and-destination survey. The updating is generally accomplished by adjusting the outdated matrix with the so-called balancing factors. It is the purpose of this paper to support the balancing-factors approach in forecasting trip-distribution matrices with a methodological interpretation and to explain behaviorally the balancing factors; and in the process, to show the spatial interaction between trip production and attraction and the emerging need for simultaneous specification and estimation of the whole trip-generation process.     

Alienation in corporate America: Fact or fable?

Using NORC annual survey data, the authors selected 21 questions describing respondent attitudes toward job, life in general, and financial status. Respondents were catigorized as management, white collar, blue collar, and those not affiliated with business organizations. Attitudes were compared across the four occupational groups. Little dissatisfaction was found in any but the blue collar group. Management as a group, and men as well as women managers showed high levels of satisfaction, with few significant differences found in responses by men and women. This study does not support the earlier finding of widespread alienation in business firms.Charles B. Sannders is Professor of Business Administration at the University of Connecticut. He has written numerous articles which have been published in various management journals.Hugh M. O'Neill and Oscar W. Jensen are Assistant Professors of Business Administration at the University of Connecticut and the Fairfield University, respectively. Both have written several articles, published in management journals.     

Scale-independent North-South trade effects on the technological-knowledge bias and on wage inequality

This paper develops a general equilibrium endogenous growth model that highlights the scale-independent mechanisms through which trade-induced North-South technological-knowledge diffusion affects the technological-knowledge bias and, thus, the paths of intra-country wage inequality. In contrast with the market-size effect, stressed in the previous literature on skill-biased technological change, the operation of the emphasized price channel following openness predicts, in line with the recent trends in developed and developing countries, an increasing skilled technological-knowledge bias, which, in turn, rises wage inequality in favor of skilled labor.     

The importance of seasonal variability and tactical responses to risk on estimating the economic benefits of integrated weed management

Seasonal variability is an important source of risk faced by farmers and, regardless of an individual's attitude to risk, there are options to tactically adjust production strategies as the outcomes of risk become known. The objective of this article is to measure the economic benefits of alternative approaches to managing weeds, one of the most serious production problems in Australian cropping systems. A bioeconomic model that combines weed biology, crop growth and economics is developed to value the effects of seasonal variability and the role of tactical responses and sequential decision making in determining an optimal integrated weed management strategy. This shows that there are substantial differences in the measured long‐term benefits from deterministic and stochastic simulations. It is concluded that, for research evaluation of technologies that involve complex biological and dynamic systems, ignoring the impacts of seasonal variability, responses to risk and sequential decision making can lead to an incorrect estimate of the economic benefits of a technology. In this case study of optimal weed management strategies in Australia, the size of the error is high.     

Real options with unknown-date events

The real options literature has provided new insights on how to manage irreversible capital investments whose payoffs are uncertain. Two of the most important predictions from such theory are: (i) greater risk delays a firm’s investment timing, and (ii) greater risk increases the option value of waiting. This paper challenges such conclusions in a setting in which the relevant random variable is the arrival time of an unfavorable event. In particular, we model situations in which a firm must choose the time at which to invest in a project whose profit grows at a known rate until a random date is reached and decays thereafter, which may be representative of stochastic product or industry life cycles. This is a novel framework in which a firm can update its beliefs about the profitability of an investment opportunity by simply waiting to invest. Thus, a wait-and-see approach allows the firm to capitalize on favorable market evolutions and avoid adverse ones to some extent. Our framework is simple and does not require using stochastic calculus, which allows for an economic interpretation of optimal investment policies for the cases of one-time and sequential investments.     

中国房地产业重见曙光

2007年4季度以来，由于政府的严厉措施、尤其是货币供应的收紧，大多数城市的住房成交量有所下降。市场对于2008年过度紧缩的忧虑导致了近几个月房地产股的大跌。然而，近期的迹象表明，住房部门受到的约束正在放松。这种情况下，上海市场开始回暖，出现了量价齐升的局面。