On the feasibility of monetary union among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: does the symmetry of shocks extend to the non-oil sector?

GCC countries’ output is heavily dichotomized into oil and non-oil. Oil shocks have similar effects on all member countries but little is known about their responses to non-oil shocks. This paper sets out to determine (1) whether aggregate demand (AD) and non-oil supply shocks (AS) are symmetrical across these countries to justify their suitability for monetary union; and (2) whether there is any commonality of shocks with the United States and the three major European countries, namely France, Germany, and Italy, which can warrant the choice of either the US dollar or the Euro as the anchor for the expected common currency of the bloc. We use bivariate structural vector autoregression models identified with long-run restrictions to extract the shocks. Our results show that (a) AD shocks are unequivocally symmetrical but non-oil AS shocks are weakly symmetrical across GCC countries thereby suggesting a monetary union is feasible, but not overwhelmingly; (b) neither AD nor AS shocks are symmetrical between GCC countries and the selected European countries; (c) GCC’s AD shocks are symmetrical with the US but non-oil AS shock are not. Furthermore, there are no significant changes in the results when we aggregate the GCC countries as a bloc. We therefore surmise that the US dollar is a more appropriate anchor for the new currency than the Euro since US monetary policy can at least help smooth demand shocks in GCC countries.     

International mergers and acquisitions: A jump diffusion model application

This paper empirically investigates international mergers and acquisitions (M&As) of foreign targets and bidders by analyzing the stock price behavior of the firms involved. The jump diffusion model is employed to study the effects of the M&A announcements on stock prices. The results indicate that acquisition announcements are perceived as a surprise by the market, but prices seem to adjust rather rapidly, supporting the semi-strong form of the market efficiency hypothesis. In addition, a comparison of the pure diffusion and jump diffusion models indicates that the jump diffusion model is statistically superior to the traditional event study methodology (pure diffusion model). (JEL G34)     

International briefing 7: Training and development in Singapore

Singapore’s only resource is its people. It has made HRD as a key strategy for economic development since its inception. Its economic success story is entwined with the training and development of its workforce. A national manpower development infrastructure has been put in place to facilitate training and lifelong learning of its people for the twenty‐first century under a master plan called Manpower 21. Continuous training and skills development has been possible through close cooperation between the state, employers and the unions through unique working relationships between several policy‐making institutions, such as the National Manpower Council and the National Wages Council.     

The 1994–1995 Mexican Currency Crisis and U.S. Bank Stock Returns

We investigate the impact of the 1994–1995 Mexican currency crisis on U.S. bank stock returns. We use a jump-diffusion model rather than a pure diffusion model to describe daily stock returns, because the public release of unexpected information generally is associated with discrete jumps in prices. Traditional event study models pool both announcement effects and trading effects and may lead to inefficient estimators. The jump-diffusion model can separate the impact of informed trading from unanticipated public announcements. Our results indicate that the variance of the jumps is large and increases with bank size and portion of loans to Mexico.     

Learning lessons: how to practice nudging around the world

Abstract

The aim of this article is to cover three things: (1) to introduce the context behind why a report prepared by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 2017 would be of such importance to researchers in various academic disciplines and public policy, (2) to present the details of a simple classification system that was applied to all 111 case studies of behavioural interventions (better known as nudges) referred to in the OECD (2017a OECD. 2017a. Behavioural Insights and Public Policy Lessons from Around the World.1-408 pp. OeCD Publishing. https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/governance/behavioural-insights-and-public-policy_9789264270480-en. doi:10.1787/9789264270480-en.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) report, and (3) to discuss what needs to be done to help advance practitioners’ pursuit of effective behavioural interventions. This article aims to highlight the importance of accurately cataloguing the types of behavioural interventions that have been trialled/implemented across the world. By adopting an agreed classification system, researchers and practitioners can benefit from knowing what can work, and where it can work, as well as what does not work, in order to be better armed when considering the use of behavioural interventions to solve social policy issues.     

Stressors,work engagement and their effects on hotel employee outcomes

Our study aims to revisit the challenge-hindrance stressor framework among customer-contact employees. Specifically, our study links challenge and hindrance stressors to four critical employee outcomes via work engagement (WE). These outcomes are quitting intentions, service recovery performance, creative performance, and job performance. Data came from hotel employees in customer-contact positions in three waves and their direct supervisors in Nigeria. As hypothesised, WE fosters service recovery, creative, and job performances, while it mitigates quitting intentions. Inconsistent with our predictions, hindrance stressors boost WE and challenge stressors exert detrimental effects on WE. Although WE links challenge and hindrance stressors to the aforementioned outcomes, the signs of the mediating effects are not congruent with what is hypothesised in the study. These unexpected findings agree with Bakker and Sanz-Vergel’s [2013] proposition that categorisation of job demands as challenge or hindrance stressors may not always be straightforward.     

Affectivity and organizational politics as antecedents of burnout among frontline hotel employees

This study investigates perceptions of organizational politics as a mediator of the effects of negative affectivity and positive affectivity on burnout. Based on data obtained from frontline hotel employees in Turkey, results reveal that the impacts of negative affectivity on exhaustion and disengagement, through perceptions of organizational politics, are stronger than positive affectivity.     

Can Loan Valuation Adjustment (LVA) approach immunize collateralized debt from defaults?

This study focuses on structuring tangible asset backed loans to inhibit their endemic option to default. We adapt the pragmatic approach of a margin loan in the configuring of collateralized debt to yield a quasi‐default‐free facility. We link our practical method to the current Basel III (2017) regulatory framework. Our new concept of the Loan Valuation Adjustment (LVA) and novel method to minimize the LVA converts the risky loan into a quasi risk‐free loan and achieves value maximization for the lending financial institution. As a result, entrepreneurial activities are promoted and economic growth invigorated. Information asymmetry, costly bailouts and resulting financial fragility are reduced while depositors are endowed with a safety net equivalent to deposit insurance but without the associated moral hazard between risk‐averse lenders and borrowers.     

EQUITY CAPITAL, PROFIT SHARING CONTRACTS, AND INVESTMENT: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

The potential effect of financial variables on the level of investment is among the key issues in contemporary financial economics. Some researchers have claimed that there is an inherent risk in the Islamic profit-and-loss sharing scheme that replaces the western fixed-interest rate system. This paper argues that such concerns are baseless. In an Islamic framework, equity capital (i.e., strong financial position) and the profit-sharing ratio are primary determinants of investment. It is shown that both factors could enhance the firm's business reputation and its investment activities. The paper, in so doing, constructs a two-period equilibrium model of profit-sharing contracts. An optimal solution for the investment function is derived for the banking firm. Besides equity capital and the profit-sharing ratio, other relevant determinants of investment are also considered, including depreciation and expected inflation. Moreover, unlike most previous research in this area, the resultant investment (and profitsharing ratio) functions are subjected to empirical testing using data from a representative Islamic bank.     

The effect of job resourcefulness on role stress,emotional exhaustion and overall performance: A study of frontline bank employees

This article develops and tests a conceptual model that examines the effects of co-worker support and job resourcefulness on role stress, emotional exhaustion and job performance. The data obtained from frontline bank employees with a time lag of two weeks in Northern Cyprus were used to test these relationships. The results of structural equation modelling suggest that the partially mediated model seems to have a better fit than the fully mediated model. The results further suggest that job resourcefulness partially mediates the effect of co-worker support on role ambiguity and emotional exhaustion. However, there is no empirical support for job resourcefulness as a mediator of the impact of co-worker support on role conflict and job performance. The implications of the results are discussed and their future research directions are offered.