Revisiting General and Specific Union Beliefs: The Union‐Voting Intentions of Professionals

We examine how general and specific beliefs about unions influence the union‐voting intentions of professional employees. Previous research, mainly on nonprofessionals, has found that both beliefs are significant in predicting voting behavior, but that specific beliefs have the stronger effect. Using a structural equation model, we found a causal relationship between general and specific beliefs, and that the total effect of general beliefs is nearly three times as strong as that of specific beliefs.     

Multiple BGPs in a Growth Model with Habit Persistence: A Comment

Recently in this journal, Chen (2007) analyzes a model of an economy without distortions in which rational forward-looking households care about how their current consumption compares with their own past consumption. Chen claims the existence of two saddle-point stable balanced growth paths. In this comment, I show that the claim is incorrect. There is a unique saddle-point stable balanced growth path and no global indeterminacy.     

When did Antwerp replace Bruges as the commercial and financial centre of north‐western Europe? The evidence of the Borromei ledger for 14381

The rise of Antwerp and the decline of Bruges are often seen in terms of a timetable of significant events: the establishment of the English cloth staple in Antwerp in 1421; the arrival of the south German merchants with their silver in the 1460s; and finally the transfer of the Portuguese spice market to the city in 1498. The 1438 ledger of a Milanese bank in Bruges suggests that by then the south Germans were well established at Antwerp and the Scheldt fairs, exporting large quantitites of fustian. It also shows the bank's integrated commercial and financial operation based on Bruges, Antwerp, Bergen, and Middleburg.     

Time-Varying Risk, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates in General Equilibrium

Under mild assumptions, the data indicate that fluctuations in nominal interest rate differentials across currencies are primarily fluctuations in time-varying risk. This finding is an immediate implication of the fact that exchange rates are roughly random walks. If most fluctuations in interest differentials are thought to be driven by monetary policy, then the data call for a theory which explains how changes in monetary policy change risk. Here, we propose such a theory based on a general equilibrium monetary model with an endogenous source of risk variation—a variable degree of asset market segmentation.     

The Consumer Tax Equivalent of a Tariff with Imperfect Substitutes

In estimating the Consumer Tax Equivalent (CTE) and Producer Subsidy Equivalent (PSE) of a tariff, it is often assumed that the imported good is a perfect substitute for the relevant locally made good. However, in evaluating the economy-wide effects of a change in tariff using general equilibrium models, it is common to assume that the imported good is an imperfect substitute (so-called Arming-ton assumption)¹ This paper estimates CTE assuming imperfect substitution in order to be consistent with the assumption commonly used in general equilibrium models. It shows how estimates of the CTE and PSE are sensitive to assumptions about the substitution elasticity of demand and the price elasticity of supply for the locally made good.     

EMU, MAASTRICHT, AND THE 1996 INTERGOVERNMENTAL CONFERENCE

This paper presents various economic approaches to achieving monetary union, particularly in the context of European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) as envisaged in the 1991 Maastricht Treaty. It evaluates the implications of Maastricht, given the economic convergence criteria embodied in the Treaty, in terms of economic policy for individual Member States and for the European Union (EU) as a whole. The paper assesses the EU's options for amending the Maastricht Treaty at its scheduled inter-governmental conference (IGC).     

Managerial Skills Acquisition and the Theory of Economic Development

Why don't all countries converge rapidly to the use of most efficient or best practice technologies? Micro level studies suggest managerial skills play a key role in the adoption of modern technologies. In this paper we model the interactive process between on-the-job managerial skill acquisition and the adoption of modern technology. We use the model to illustrate why some countries develop managerial skills quickly and adopt best practice technologies, while others stay backwards. The model also explains why managers will not migrate from rich countries to poor countries, as would be needed to generate convergence. Finally we show why standard growth accounting exercises will incorrectly attribute a large proportion of managerial skills' contribution to total factor productivity and we quantify the importance of this bias.