AN ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF NON-RESIDENT HUNTING AND GUIDING IN THE EAST KOOTENAY1

Guiding is an industry closely linked to ranching in Western Canada. In the more remote areas where guiding is a significant activity, agriculture is often depressed. Such complementary non-farm sources of income are attracting increasing attention as a means of mitigating the "farm problem" in these situations.
This study attempts an evaluation of the economic contribution of non-resident hunting and the associated guiding industry in a region of British Columbia where guiding is an important adjunct to low-income ranching. The net economic gain from non-resident hunting is calculated, as are the private profits of guiding. These appear surprisingly low, though there is wide variation in the profitability of guiding. Public administrative policies are probably responsible in part for the failure of this industry to rationalize itself and for underutilization of game resources.     

FURTHER ANALYSIS OF THE TWIN DEFICITS

In a 1989 Contemporary Policy Issues article Miller and Russek published findings of a causal relation between the fiscal deficit and the trade deficit. However, they found no overwhelming support for reverse causation between the twin deficits. The authors of the analysis here gathered annual data on U.S. federal budget deficits and net exports for 1950–1988 and deflated the nominal values by the GDP deflators to examine the causal relation based on real values. They made a distinction between structural and actual budget deficits. Instead of an arbitrary choice of lag structure, they used Hsiao (1979, 1981) minimum final prediction error criterion to determine the optimum lag lengths of the explanatory variables. The analysis reveals a unidirectional causal relation running from structural budget deficits to net exports, confirming some of Miller and Russek's findings. Contrary to Miller and Russek's conclusions, however, findings here indicate a bi-directional causal relation between actual budget deficits and net exports. These findings suggest important policy implications.     

“Voice Within Voice”: Members’ Voice Responses to Dissatisfaction with Their Union

While the role of unions as collective voice is well understood, how union members themselves voice their preferences within their union is not. This study represents an important step in understanding this critical dimension of the union–member relation. Using survey data from an Australian union, I investigate how union members voice dissatisfaction with their union. Union loyalty, perceived opportunities to voice, union responsiveness, and collectivist ideology predicted willingness to voice directly to the union. Perceived union support and instrumentality did not predict members’ willingness to voice directly to the union but were associated with other voice responses.     

Robustness and U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation

We study how a concern for robustness modifies a policymaker's incentive to experiment. A policymaker has a prior over two submodels of inflation‐unemployment dynamics. One submodel implies an exploitable trade‐off, the other does not. Bayes' law gives the policymaker an incentive to experiment. The policymaker fears that both submodels and his prior probability distribution over them are misspecified. We compute decision rules that are robust to misspecifications of each submodel and of the prior distribution over submodels. We compare robust rules to ones that Cogley, Colacito, and Sargent (2007) computed assuming that the models and the prior distribution are correctly specified. We explain how the policymaker's desires to protect against misspecifications of the submodels, on the one hand, and misspecifications of the prior over them, on the other, have different effects on the decision rule.     

Fair Value Accounting and Debt Contracting: Evidence from Adoption of SFAS 159

We examine how fair value accounting affects debt contract design, specifically the use and definition of financial covenants in private loan contracts. Using SFAS 159 adoption as our setting, we find that a small but significant proportion of loans (14.5%) modify covenant definitions to exclude the effects of SFAS 159 fair values. Only a limited number of these modifications exclude assets elected at fair value (less than 7%), while all exclude liabilities elected at fair value. Notably, we document that covenant definition modification is unassociated with ex ante fair value elections. We find that covenant definition modification positively varies with common incentive problems attributed to fair value accounting and negatively varies with benefits attributed to fair value accounting. Our results suggest that fair value accounting is not uniformly detrimental for debt contracting and fair value adjustments are included when they are most likely to improve performance measurement.     

Money and Output: Friedman and Schwartz Revisited

More than 50 years ago, Friedman and Schwartz examined historical data for the United States and found evidence of procyclical movements in the money stock, which led corresponding movements in output. We find similar correlations in more recent data; these appear most clearly when Divisia monetary aggregates are used in place of the Federal Reserve's official, simple‐sum measures. When we use information in Divisia money to estimate a structural vector autoregression, identified monetary policy shocks appear to have large and persistent effects on output and prices, with a lag that has lengthened considerably since the early 1980s.