Technical Progress and the North–South Terms of Trade

In a classical world where prices of both northern manufactures and southern raw materials are determined by market demand and supply, technical progress in one region leads to a terms-of-trade improvement of the other region irrespective of whether technical progress is labor-saving or raw-material saving. But in a neo-Kaleckian framework characterized by surplus capacity, and an effective demand problem in the North and a capacity constraint in the South, the terms of trade would turn against the South even if the North experienced a higher rate of technical progress than that of the South.     

Political Party Affiliation of the President,Majority in Congress,and Sin Stock Returns

We find that in contrast to the stock market, which performs better during Democratic presidencies, “sin” stocks—publicly traded producers of tobacco, alcohol, and gaming—perform better during Republican presidencies and even more so when the Republican presidency is accompanied by a Republican majority in at least one chamber of Congress. We examine whether sin firms use contributions to establish connections with politicians and find that sin firms contribute more to Republican candidates and that these contributions are greater when Republicans are in power. We also find a positive relation between political contributions and future returns. The relation is stronger for contributions to Republicans.     

A reexamination of corporate sell-offs of real estate assets

This article reexamines the now generally accepted notion that sell-offs of real estate assets provide positive returns for sellers but not for buyers. Following previous research, we use event study methods, but we modify the conventional market model to permit its residuals (unexpected returns) to be described by a time-varying conditional variance. We also differ from previous work in that our sample contains only sell-offs that can be precisely dated. Although we find substantial evidence of time-varying volatility in the unexpected return series, our economic results confirm the conventional viewpoint.     

Liquidity risk, credit risk, and the federal reserve’s responses to the crisis

In responding to the severity and broad scope of the crisis, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) has aggressively utilized both traditional monetary policy instruments, as well as innovative tools to provide liquidity. In this paper, the Fed’s actions are examined in light of the evolution of risk during the crisis. The empirical evidence supports the Fed’s views on the primacy of liquidity constraints in the earlier stages of the crisis and the increased prominence of counterparty credit risk as the crisis evolved in 2008. I conclude that an understanding of the prevailing risk environment is necessary to evaluate when central bank programs are likely to be effective and under what conditions the programs might cease to be necessary.     

Commodity betas with mean reverting output prices

This paper provides a theoretical derivation of commodity beta (stock price sensitivity to commodity price) using a contingent-claim model. The model incorporates operating leverage, financial leverage, costly financial distress, and mean reverting commodity prices; and highlights the important role played by the speed of reversion of the commodity price. It is used to identify theoretically the main determinants of commodity beta. Commodity beta is predicted to be an increasing function of the operating and financial leverage of the firm, and a decreasing function of the company’s tax rate and the level, volatility and speed of reversion of the commodity price. Empirical tests with a sample of gold mining firms provide support for these predictions, particularly the new implications of the model (the effect of the commodity price’s speed of reversion and the company’s tax rate).     

Does Autonomy Matter in State Owned Enterprises? Evidence from Performance Contracts in India

Empirical evidence on the effect of managerial autonomy on the performance of state‐owned enterprises (SOE) is surprisingly scant despite autonomy being a preferred reform instrument over partial privatization in many countries. Using longitudinal data on performance contracts of state‐owned enterprises in India, this paper finds that managerial autonomy is associated with significant increases in enterprise profitability and efficiency. Further, using India's unique reform experience where both managerial autonomy and partial privatization were pursued side by side, the paper finds that while the positive effects of autonomy continue post‐partial privatization, the effects of partial privatization on performance are ambiguous. Specifically, once autonomy is controlled for, partial privatization has a positive effect on SOE profitability only after it crosses a critical level of government disinvestment. The findings suggest that organizational reforms such as granting managerial autonomy can be an important policy instrument in improving SOE performance particularly in cases where governments are unable to make substantial disinvestments.     

Attracting private investment: Tax reduction,investment subsidy,or both?

This paper uses a real-option model to examine the net benefit to a government from using tax cut and/or investment subsidy as incentives to induce immediate investment. Although earlier papers generally concluded that investment subsidy dominates tax cut, it is observed that many governments use a combination of subsidy and tax cut. We show that, when the government uses a different discount rate from private firms, and when it has to borrow money to provide an investment subsidy, it is possible to get an internal optimum; that is, it might be optimal for the government to provide an investment subsidy as well as charge a positive tax rate on the profits from the project. Thus, we provide an explanation for the puzzling fact that many governments provide an investment subsidy to a firm while simultaneously taxing its profits.