Can social microblogging be used to forecast intraday exchange rates?

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is widely accepted to hold true under certain assumptions. One of its implications is that the prediction of stock prices at least in the short run cannot outperform the random walk model. Yet, recently many studies stressing the psychological and social dimension of financial behavior have challenged the validity of the EMH. Toward this aim, over the last few years, internet-based communication platforms and search engines have been used to extract early indicators of social and economic trends. Here, we used Twitter’s social networking platform to model and forecast the EUR/USD exchange rate in a high-frequency intradaily trading scale. Using time series and trading simulations analysis, we provide some evidence that the information provided in social microblogging platforms such as Twitter can in certain cases enhance the forecasting efficiency regarding the very short (intradaily) forex.     

A Theoretical and Empirical Review of the EU Regulation on Credit Rating Agencies: In Search of Truth,Not Scapegoats

The undergoing financial turbulence has raised significant concerns over the role that credit rating agencies (CRAs) played in the inception, magnification and expansion of the crisis. In response, the EU legislature has adopted Regulation 1060/2009, which, for the first time, set out a legally binding pan‐European authorization regime for CRAs, which issue ratings that have been used by EU‐based financial institutions. As the turmoil turned into an unprecedented Eurozone debt crisis, EU politicians have been calling for tighter regulation of the credit rating industry. Drawing on the relevant empirical and theoretical research and building upon a comparative study of the corresponding US framework, the paper discusses critically the principles underlying EU Regulation 1060/2009 and the most recent suggestions for its reform. The paper argues that although, overall, the EU Regulation seems to be a well‐balanced instrument in the sense that it introduces the essential checks upon CRAs’ behavior while avoiding excessive regulatory intervention, more fine‐tuning is needed in certain fields, including, rating shopping, financial ties with rated entities, abuse of inside information, transparency and CRAs’ accountability.     

Towards unions 2.0: rethinking the audience of social media engagement

This paper aims to examine how trade union members perceive opportunities for online engagement and what the differences are between traditional and online audiences. The empirical work is based on a survey of members of a Greek union in the banking sector. The findings outline the characteristics of an audience that is likely to support information sharing and networking activities on the web. For this audience, traditional levels of loyalty and union participation were not strongly related with perceptions about the union's online presence. Instead, Internet skills and experiences had a dominant effect. The implications of this study suggest that trade unions have to actively seek knowledge about the characteristics of their new audience and adapt communications strategies accordingly.     

Economic Integration between the European Union and the Transition Economies of Central European Initiative Countries

In this article we examine the main factors influencing trade and FDI flows between the transition countries of the Central European Initiative (CEI) and the EU member states. We distinguish three groups of CEI countries, according to the degree of trade and FDI integration with the EU: the 'fast mover' countries, the 'next tier' countries and the 'slow movers'. By estimating a number of trade and FDI equations we were able to locate the significance of alternative variables which affect the flows of trade between the CEI countries and the EU. According to our results, the low volume of trade and FDI between the 'next tier' and 'slow movers' of the CEI region, on one hand, and the EU, on the other, is a reflection of the fact that these particular countries have not yet achieved adequate institutional and economic reform while, at the same time, privatisation has not progressed as much.     

INSTITUTIONAL FAILURES OF SOCIALISM

An effective economic system enlists the co‐operation of all production factors, increasing welfare and reducing transactions costs. The co‐ordination mechanism is activated through decentralisation that shifts decisions on resource control from a higher to a lower level in the institutional hierarchy. Failure to incorporate successful decentralisation into the structure of socialist economies ultimately leads to collapse. Real socialism collapsed because it did not involve decentralisation. Worker‐managed socialism collapsed because of its own inherent contradictions and the absence of properly functioning decentralised price mechanisms.     

Who is Looking for Nutritional Food Labels?: Wer sucht nach Nährwertangaben auf Lebensmitteln?: Mais qui donc s'occupe du contenu nutritionnel sur les étiquettes?

Who is Looking for Nutritional Food Labels? Obesity amongst the population in Europe is increasing at an alarming rate. Consequently, nutritional and lifestyle factors are implicated in the huge increase in several chronic diseases in Europe. The Southern Europeans tend to be amongst the worst, mth Greece being first in adult obesity mainly due to the replacement of the Mediterranean diet with ready‐made and fast foods. People want to see change towards an environment that makes it easier to make healthy choices. The EU, in order to assist consumers make healthy food choices, tried to make nutritional information available to consumers through a food labelling law framework, which currently works on a voluntary basis with the perspective to change towards a mandatory system. We conducted a study in Greece in order to assess consumer use of nutritional food labels and determine which consumers use certain types of nutrient content information. We found that almost a third of consumers often use food labels and these are the more educated, who are more nutritionally knowledgeable. Many others do not, and to increase their chances of reading the labels one should improve their knowledge of nutrition havlng in mind that they are not big users of the media but get their information from informd sources. Mais qui donc s'occupe du contenu nutritionnel sur les etiquettes? La prevalence de I'obesitk augmente a un t a u toujours plus preoccupant en Europe. Les facteurs nutritionnels et les styles de vie sont par consequent impliquks dans l'Cnorme accroissement constati: de diverses pathologies chroniques. La situation est specialement mauvaise en Europe du sud, ou la Grece detient le record du taux d'obesite dans la population adulte, en particulier du fait du remplacement du fameux ‘regime mediterraneen’ par les plats prepares et la restauration rapide. Les gens souhaitent un environnement susceptible de leur faciliter le choix d'une alimentation saine. C'est pour cela que l'Union europkenne a tente de mettre des informations nutritionnelles a la disposition des consommateurs, en instituant un cadre legal pour l'etiquetage alimentaire Il fonctionne actuellement sur la base du volontariat, mais il a pour vocation d'evoluer vers un systeme obligatoire. Il est rendu compte ici d'une enquOte effectuee en Grkce pour determiner quels types de consommateurs utilisent quels genres dindications de contenu nutritionnel portees sur les etiquettes alimentaires, et dans quelle mesure. Environ un tiers des consommateurs utilisent souvent les contenus nutritionnels. Ce sont les plus eduques et les mieux informks. La plupart des autres negligent les etiquettes. Pour accroitre les chances que ces dernieres soient lues, il faudrait donc arneliorer les connaissances nutritionnelles, en gardant a l'esprit que les personnes concernkes utilisent peu les mkdias et tirent leurs informations de sources informelles. Wer sucht nach Nährwertangaben auf Die Fettleibigkeit in der europaischen Bevolkerung nimmt alarmierend schnell zu. Folglich spiegeln sich Ernahrung und Lebensstil in dem hohen Anstieg zahlreicher chronischer Erkrankungen in Europa wider. Fur die Sudeuropaer ergeben sich einige der schlechtesten Werte, wobei in Griechenland die Erwachsenenfettleibigkeit am ausgepriigtesten ist. Dies liegt hauptsachlich daran, dass die mediterrane Erniihrung von Fertiggerichten und Fast‐Food abgelost wurde. Die Bevolkerung wiinscht sich eine Veriinderung hin zu einer Umgebung, die sie darin unterstutzt, der Gesundheit zutr;dgliche Entscheidungen zu treffen. Die EU wollte den Verbrauchern gesundheitlich relevante Informationen durch eine Kennzeichnung der Inhaltsstoffe der Lebensmittel verschaffen. Dieses System sieht gegenwartig lediglich eine freiwillige Kennzeichnung vor, ist aber als obligatorisch geplant. Wir fiihrten in Griechenland eine Studie durch, um zu beurteilen, inwiefern Nahrwertangaben auf Lebensmitteln den Verbrauchern nutzen, und um festzustellen, welche Verbraucher auf bestimmte Nahrwertangaben achten. Wir fanden heraus, dass beinahe ein Drittel aller Verbraucher auf die Lebensmittelkennzeich nung achten. Diese Verbraucher verfiigen uber eine hohere Bildung und kennen sich in Erniihrungsfragen relativ gut aus. Ein großer Anted der Verbraucher verfiigt uber keinerlei gesundheitliche Grundkenntnisse; um diesen Verbrauchern das Lesen der Etiketten zu ermoglichen, sollte man ihre Kenntnisse in Sachen Ernahrung verbessern und sich dabei vor Augen fiihren, dass diese Verbraucher die Medien nicht allzu intensiv nutzen, sondern ihre Informationen aus informellen Quellen beziehen.     

Boosting confidence: Is there a role for fiscal policy?

This paper investigates the widely held view that expansionary fiscal policy can boost consumer and business confidence, which will stimulate private spending and sustain economic activity. We find evidence in favor of this conjecture, i.e., cuts in direct taxes generate a positive effect on consumer and business confidence, while the same applies in cases of higher non-wage government consumption. However, higher government wage bills and government investment reduce confidence, with the effect being more pronounced when the Debt to GDP ratio is high, possibly because they entail a permanent increase in the size of the public sector, which would have to be financed by higher future taxes.     

A Consistent Econometric Test for Bid Interdependence in Repeated Second-Price Auctions with Posted Prices

In repeated second-price experimental auctions, the winning bid is normally posted after each round. The posting of these winning prices after each round can result in bids submitted in later rounds to be interdependent with posted prices from earlier rounds. Several approaches in the past have tried to scrutinize their experimental data for value interdependence by regressing bids on lagged market prices or lagged bids and ignoring the inherent endogeneity problem. This paper introduces a formal test for bid interdependence in repeated second-price auctions with posted prices using a dynamic panel model. We then apply this test to formally check the presence of bid interdependence in three datasets used in previous studies.     

A Comparative Simulation Study of Wavelet Shrinkage Estimators for Poisson Counts

Using computer simulations, the finite sample performance of a number of classical and Bayesian wavelet shrinkage estimators for Poisson counts is examined. For the purpose of comparison, a variety of intensity functions, background intensity levels, sample sizes, primary resolution levels, wavelet filters and performance criteria are employed. A demonstration is given of the use of some of the estimators to analyse a data set arising in high-energy astrophysics. Following the philosophy of reproducible research, the M atlab programs and real-life data example used in this study are made freely available.