Second Best Environmental Policies under Uncertainty

We construct a strategic environmental policy model of an international duopoly. Governments use environmental policies, such as an emissions standard or a tax, to control pollution and for rent shifting purposes. Contrary to firms, however, governments are unable to perfectly foresee the actual level of demand and the cost of abatement. Our results suggest that not only the presence but also the absolute level of uncertainty matters for the optimal choice of the environmental policy instrument. Moreover, the optimality conditions under strategic behavior may lead to welfare losses relative to the cooperative outcomes because of under‐regulation and lack of policy coordination between the two countries.     

在近岸采油装置上实施集成风险检查系统

介绍中东国家把集成风险检查和检查系统用于近岸油田装置。根据详细的风险检查分析和过去的检查记录,对所选择的设备采用无损检测技术实施检查。资产数据、检查记录和有关文件都集中保存在计算机系统中。这样有能力保管和查看不同种类的文件和图样。这个系统能生成和监管维修和检查工作单,并能与企业其他系统进行交流。有一个知识数据库用于资产整合活动,与MS Excel的输入/输出功能进行数据交换也更加方便。     

A Bayesian Signals Approach for the Detection of Crises

In this paper, we consider the signals approach as an early-warning-system to detect crises. Crisis detection from a signals approach involves Type I and II errors which are handled through a utility function. We provide a Bayesian model and we test the effectiveness of the signals approach in three data sets: (1) Currency and banking crises for 76 currency and 26 banking crises in 15 developing and 5 industrial countries between 1970 and 1995, (2) costly asset price booms using quarterly data ranging from 1970 to 2007, and (3) public debt crises in Europe in 11 countries in the European Monetary Union from the introduction of the Euro until November 2011. The Bayesian model relies on a vector autoregression for indicator variables, and incorporates dynamic factors, time-varying weights in the latent composite indicator and special priors to avoid the proliferation of parameters. The Bayesian vector autoregressions are extended to a semi-parametric context to capture non-linearities. Our evidence reveals that our approach is successful as an early-warning mechanism after allowing for breaks and nonlinearities and, perhaps more importantly, the composite indicator is better represented as a flexible nonlinear function of the underlying indicators.

     

Warrant exercise and bond conversion in competitive markets

We develop a theory of warrants held by competitive warrantholders not constrained to exercise their warrants as one block; the theory also applies to convertible bonds held by competitive bondholders not constrained to convert their bonds as one block. We prove that the warrant (bond) price in each of the competitive equilibria is less than or equal to the price in an economy with the block constraint; and for at least one competitive equilibrium the warrant (bond) price equals the warrant (bond) price in the block-constrained economy. We illustrate the paths of competitive warrant exercise and bond conversion and conclude that under realistic assumptions they can be long.     

Optimal population growth and the social welfare function

The social welfare function criterion offers an approach to the theory of optimal economic growth that is intermediate between the 2 most frequently used utilitarian models--those that maximize per capita utility and those that maximize total utility. According to the welfare criterion, societal welfare depends not only on the level of per capita consumption, but also on the population density in the area in which an individual resides. The model postualtes that, for a given level of per capita consumption, total utility increases with increasing density, reaches a maximum, and then declines with further population increases due to the deleterious effect of overcrowding on the quality of life (e.g., the quality of education, recreational facilities, and environmental factors such as clean air and pure water). The overall objective of the model is to identify the optimal per capita consumption and population size that maximize the discounted social welfare. Optimal population growth occurs when the increase in the discounted social welfare resulting from the introduction of a new member equals the reduction in welfare created by that addition (modified Meade Rule), while per capita accumulation equals the sum of the population growth rate and the social rate of time preference (modified Golden Rule). This model could be extended to consider technological change more explicitly and its effect on optimal outcomes.     

Public Goods,Tax Policies,and Unemployment in LDCs

We build a general equilibrium model of a small open economy characterized by unemployment and producing two privately traded goods and one nontraded public consumption good. The provision of public good is financed with an income tax or an excise tax on the manufactured good or an import tariff. Within this framework, the paper examines the effects of such policies on the country's unemployment ratio and welfare, and it derives the efficiency rules for public good provision for each policy instrument. It shows, among other things, that the private marginal cost of the public good always overstates its social marginal cost in the case of income taxes and may overstate it in the case of an excise tax on the manufactured good or a tariff even if the taxed good and the public good are substitutes in consumption.     

Quantitative Import Restrictions and Optimal Capital Taxes Under a System of Tax Credits

This paper examines the optimal capital tax policy under quantitative import constraints, and international capital tax credits. For a small capital-importing country, the optimal capital tax equals the foreign tax under a quota, and equals or exceeds the foreign tax under a VER. For a small capital-exporting country, the optimal policy towards capital is a zero tax under a quota, and a tax or a subsidy under a VER. Also examined are the welfare effects of capital taxes and trade liberalization, and the joint setting of the two policies, when both instruments are available to the government.     

Openness in the Canadian economy: 1870–1988

The causal relation between openness and GDP and between exports and imports are examined. Causality test carried out in growth rates showed that over the period 1870–1988 openness, both narrowly and broadly defined, Granger-causes GDP growth; tests for the inverse causality produced mixed results, validating causality from GDP growth to export plus import growth, but rejecting causlaity from GDP growth to export growth; it was also found that export growth causes import growth, but not the opposite. Causality tests over four subperiods indicated the importance of openness for only the earliest phase of Canadian economic development. While the absence of causality in the later subperiods is largely compatible with the experience of the industrial countries, no meaningful comparison can be made between the experience of Canada and that of developing countries owing to causality variations of openness and to large differences in resource endowments.     

A Family of Differential Input Demand Systems with Application to Greek Agriculture

This paper develops a family of input demand systems via alternative parametrisations of Theil's differential model. Each member of this family is as flexible as any other locally flexible functional form. More importantly, selection among the competing family members is possible via simple parameter restrictions. The family of differential input demand systems is applied to the agricultural sector in Greece for the period 1961–96. Formal tests suggest that the model with the CBS-type effects dominates the alternative models. Divisia and price elasticities are calculated from the selected model and a decomposition of changes in the demand for inputs into technical change, total input volume, substitution, and residual effects is performed. The empirical results are quite reasonable. Overall, the analysis in this paper indicates that, in certain cases, the differential approach may provide an attractive alternative to the dual approach in modelling production behaviour.     

An Empirical Assessment of Sovereign Country Risk in the Black Sea Region

Country risk is recognized as a key factor considered prior to undertaking cross-border economic activity such as an investment or a financial transaction. When the level of country risk is deemed low, commercial and other risks play a more important role in the assessment of the advisability to undertake a cross-border activity. In other cases, country risk levels are significant and may play a decisive role in the assessment of the cross-border activity. By its nature, country risk depends upon perceptions, and as a result both objective measurable factors and subjective issues need to be considered. This study investigates the factors that determine country risk as signalled by a commonly used proxy, the sovereign credit ratings assigned by the major rating agencies. To this end, panel data analysis has been used and applied to three heterogeneous country sub-groups, the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) countries, the EU-15, and the Central Europe and Baltic countries, for the period 2004–2013. The results generated suggest that three sets of variables: gross domestic product per capita, debt metrics, and institutional factors, play an instrumental role in explaining country risk across all the sub-groups. However, the individual results for each sub-group provide evidence that sovereign rating agencies focus on particular economic facets of each, and hence, take into account idiosyncratic aspects, structural as well as regional. Therefore, the study also examines those indicators that matter most or have a ‘specific gravity’ in determining sovereign ratings in each country-group, with a particular focus on the BSEC countries.