Certainty Independence and the Separation of Utility and Beliefs

Economists often operate under an implicit assumption that the tastes of a decision maker are quite stable, while his beliefs change with the availability of new information. We show that for a general class of preferences, a separation of a key component of tastes, the utility function, from the other components of the representation is possible only if the decision maker's preferences satisfy a mild but not completely innocuous condition, called ‘certainty independence’. We also outline the axiomatic characterization of the preferences that obtain such separation, which are a subset of the biseparable preferences.     

Multiple equilibria and global indeterminacy in an endogenous growth model with congestible public goods

This paper extends the findings in Chen and Lee (2007) to show that the use of congestible public goods can produce both local and global indeterminacy in a two‐sector endogenous growth model with productive public services financed by income taxation. Basically, we observe the effects on growth rates by changing parameters, and compare the case of a single steady‐state with the emergence of dual steady‐states, identifying the feasible ways to avoid a possible low‐growth poverty trap. The novelty of our analysis is to detect the presence of global indeterminacy by making use of the Bogdanov‐Takens bifurcation theorem. Some examples are also provided to achieve concrete policy implications.     

Innovation in knowledge-based professional service firms. An integrated conceptual model*

ABSTRACT

The current paper offers a new conceptual model to understanding innovation processes in professional service firms, to make hidden relationships more explicit and to find out what are the issues still unexplored. The paper employs a systematic literature review, and draws upon original categorizations of extant literature, to identify main processes for each category of PSFs. It unveils connections among a wide range of factors setting a conceptual model for innovation pathways and highlighting neglected questions relevant from both the theoretical and the practical perspectives.     

Capital as a Single Magnitude and the Orthodox Theory of Distribution in Some Writings of the Early 1930s

Some writings of the early 1930s by Dennis Robertson and John Hicks present, with a clarity not easily found elsewhere, the reasons why marginalist economists, who until recent decades normally treated capital as a single magnitude, were in fact compelled to do so. This paper focuses on a first reason that emerges from these writings: namely the fact that only this treatment of capital can lend plausibility to the notion of substitutability between factors of production on which the orthodox theory of distribution is built.     

Gender Differences in Sorting

In this paper, we investigate gender differences in workers’ career development within and outside the firm to explain the existence of gender wage gaps. Using Danish employer–employee matched data, we find that good female workers are more likely to move to better firms than men but are less likely to be promoted. Furthermore, these differences in career advancement widen after the first child is born. Our findings suggest that career impediments in certain firms cause the most productive female workers to seek better jobs in firms in which there is less gender bias.     

The Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank

The first six years of ECB monetary policy are examined using a general framework that allows central bankers to weight differently positive and negative deviations of inflation, output and the interest rate from their reference values. The empirical analysis on synthetic euro‐area data suggests that the objective of price stability is symmetric, whereas the objectives of real activity and interest‐rate stabilizations are not. Output contractions imply larger policy responses than output expansions of the same size, while movements in the interest rate are larger when the level of the interest rate is relatively high. The hypothesis of M3 growth‐rate targeting is rejected.     

Forecasting recovery rates on non-performing loans with machine learning

We compare the performance of a wide set of regression techniques and machine-learning algorithms for predicting recovery rates on non-performing loans, using a private database from a European debt collection agency. We find that rule-based algorithms such as Cubist, boosted trees, and random forests perform significantly better than other approaches. In addition to loan contract specificities, predictors that refer to the bank recovery process — prior to the portfolio’s sale to a debt collector — are also shown to enhance forecasting performance. These variables, derived from the time series of contacts to defaulted clients and client reimbursements to the bank, help all algorithms better identify debtors with different repayment ability and/or commitment, and in general those with different recovery potential.     

The fundamental theorem of asset pricing under transaction costs

This paper proves the fundamental theorem of asset pricing with transaction costs, when bid and ask prices follow locally bounded càdlàg (right-continuous, left-limited) processes. The robust no free lunch with vanishing risk condition (RNFLVR) for simple strategies is equivalent to the existence of a strictly consistent price system (SCPS). This result relies on a new notion of admissibility, which reflects future liquidation opportunities. The RNFLVR condition implies that admissible strategies are predictable processes of finite variation. The Appendix develops an extension of the familiar Stieltjes integral for càdlàg integrands and finite-variation integrators, which is central to modelling transaction costs with discontinuous prices.     

‘Scary … but I like it!’ Young tourists' perceptions of fear on holiday

This paper explores young tourists' perceptions of fear on holiday. The work on which this paper is based is important because it sheds light on tourists' emotional experiences on holiday, which are central to increase our understanding of tourist behaviour. The importance of investigating perceptions of fear has been recognized within a number of different disciplines, such as psychology, sociology, criminology, and marketing. Indeed, it has been argued that fear may provide significant information concerning an individual's motivations, preferences, and patterns of behaviour. Despite this, perceptions of fear within the tourism experience have remained relatively unexplored. It is often assumed that perceptions of safety and security may influence individuals' destination choice. However, there is a paucity of studies concerning tourists' perceptions of fear during the tourism experience. This paper is based on three months of qualitative fieldwork conducted on the island of Ios, Greece in the summer of 2007. More specifically, participant observation and semi-structured interviews were methods employed for data collection to explore young tourists' perceptions of fear. The possibility to develop a rapport and build a relationship with young tourists on Ios was crucial to collect valuable information concerning tourists' background, their emotions, expectations, perceptions, and the context in which perceptions of fear were experienced and expressed. The study found that most holidaymakers on Ios participated in activities perceived as risky in order to experience fear. In this respect, young tourists deliberately sought fear and thrill to increase their levels of pleasure and enjoyment during the tourism experience. The results suggest that fear may play a positive role in the tourism experience of young tourists, which should no longer be ignored by tourism scholars.     

Alitalia – The failure of a national carrier

The paper examines the case of Alitalia, Italy’s former flag carrier, as a case of a state-managed failure. The history of the airline is characterized by a continuous decline in its competitive position since the progressive liberalization of the European aviation market. The root cause of this decline lies in the carrier being mainly used as a political tool rather than operating as a competitive firm. In a liberalized market this doomed Alitalia to failure, which was artificially delayed by numerous state financial and regulatory interventions. The paper starts with a historical overview of the most important events in recent Alitalia history. Thereafter the main causes of the airline’s weak competitive position relative to other European carriers are analyzed. We argue that the underlying causes of the decline were continuous political protection, lack of strategic views in favor of short-term objectives, and poor managerial decisions.