The value of a ‘failed’ R&D project: an emerging evaluation framework for building innovative capabilities1

In literature and R&D organizations alike, project success consists in minimizing the deviations from set targets in terms of quality, cost and time. The main management task is to execute and monitor progress to reduce risks – assuming that project attributes are known, necessary resources can be estimated and a reasonable time table can be agreed upon. In such a context, evaluating project success is easy. However, in an innovative context, setting project targets initially is difficult and the contributions of the projects sometimes are of an unexpected nature. This paper investigates if projects can be evaluated in terms of how they contribute to the building of innovative capabilities of the firm instead of independently. Based on a case study at the Régie Autonome des Transports Parisians and the theoretical framework of innovation fields, a framework for evaluating projects from an additional perspective is proposed. Based on the following four criteria: financial resources, the development of a structured, refined and expanded strategic vision, developed competences (with related suppliers) and identification of knowledge gaps (occasionally with related partners for knowledge production), this framework shows how seemingly failed R&D projects can instead be considered as invaluable to the overall innovation process.     

Discretionary write-downs,write-offs,and other restructuring provisions: a signaling approach

This paper introduces a model seeking to explain the discretionary write-downs, write-offs, and other restructuring provisions reported by managers. The model comprises a firm, a manager, and a financial market. The firm is about to be restructured. The manager has some private information about the likelihood of success of his restructuring action. The manager may recognise all or part of the expenditure associated with his future restructuring action by reporting a discretionary restructuring provision. The manager chooses whether or not to report a provision, recognising the impact of the provision on his compensation. The paper shows how, under certain conditions, the manager may credibly communicate his private information to investors through his provision policy. Testable implications are consistent with the empirical evidence reported by Strong and Meyer (1987), Elliott and Shaw (1988), and Zucca and Campbell (1992).     

Profitability and opportunity of conservation agriculture in acid savannah grasslands of Laos

In north-eastern Laos, the savannah grasslands of the Plain of Jars cover vast areas of potentially cultivable land. However, soil acidity, low inherent fertility, and the absence of alternatives to tillage represent significant constraints to the development of sustainable smallholder agriculture. Our objective was to evaluate the potential for conservation agriculture (CA) to enhance soil productivity and farming system profitability. A three-year rotation of rice/maize/soybean was tested under three fertilization levels and four agricultural systems: one conventional tillage-based (CT) system and three CA systems based on no-tillage with cover crops. After four cropping seasons, our results show that, compared with CT, CA systems led to similar-to-higher grain production, similar-to-higher profits, higher opportunity of livestock system intensification, and higher labour productivity regardless of fertilization levels. While CA represents a relevant alternative to current practices, our results suggest that its contribution to the emergence of a sustainable smallholder agriculture is conditioned by broader institutional transformations, including the enrolment of local manufacturers and traders for deploying no-till implements and seed market channels for cover crops, long-term public support to maintain active research and technical mentoring to farmers, and possibly the integration of ecosystem services in agricultural policy.     

Monetary Union or International Monetary Order?

Is European Monetary Union desirable? Pascal Salin, of the Univeristy of Paris, argues that any system of fixed exchange rates such as the EMS Exchange Rate Mechanism, is likely to prove unsatisfactory.     

The decentralization of credit: A selected summary of the Mayoux report

The Mayoux Report is the official report of a Committee of Inquiry headed by Jacques Mayoux that examined problems of the local and regional financial opportunities of small and medium-sized firms. This note, written by two of the aides to Mr. Mayoux in the preparation of the report, provides a summary of the major findings and suggestions of the Committee regarding banking reform. The principal recommendations include the simplification and decentralization of the granting of credit in France and continued steps toward the balancing of the rules and conditions governing lending and deposit collection among the various French financial institutions. It appeared to the Committee that the compartmentalization of French financial institutions due to the special rules under which specific institutions are permitted to operate was the major obstacle preventing better distributions of credit in France.     

The Effects of NAFTA/CUSFTA on Agricultural Trade Flows: An Empirical Investigation

This paper examines the effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its predecessor, the Canada‐United States Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA), on agricultural trade flows at disaggregated product categories. The empirical analysis is implemented through gravity models using different econometric methods. It accounts for the baseline NAFTA/CUSFTA‐unrelated magnitudes of trade between member countries throughout the assessment of the NAFTA/CUSFTA trade effects. The benchmark estimates show considerable differences across agricultural product categories. The net post‐NAFTA/CUSFTA magnitudes of trade between member countries are found to be markedly low in some cases, underlining missed regional trade opportunities. The empirical analysis proceeds to estimate the NAFTA/CUSFTA trade effects by time period and by bilateral trading partnership, revealing important variations. Cet article examine les effets de l'Accord de Libre‐Échange Nord‐Américain (ALÉNA) et de son prédécesseur, l'Accord de Libre‐Échange entre le Canada et les États‐Unis (ALÉCÉU), sur les flux commerciaux agricoles au niveau des catégories ventilées. L'analyse empirique est mise en ?uvre grâce à des modèles de gravité en utilisant une variété de méthodes économétriques. Elle compte pour la ligne de base des magnitudes non‐reliées à l'ALÉNA/ALÉCÉU du commerce entre les pays membres à travers l′évaluation des effets de l'ALÉNA/ALÉCÉU sur le commerce. Les estimations de référence montrent des différences considérables entre les catégories de produits agricoles. Les magnitudes post‐ALÉNA/ALÉCÉU nettes du commerce entre les pays membres se trouvent d′être considérablement faibles dans certains cas. Ces résultats soulignent des opportunités commerciales régionales manquées. L'analyse empirique procède à estimer les effets de l'ALÉNA/ALÉCÉU sur le commerce par période et par partenariat commercial bilatéral, et elle montre des variations importantes.     

Stock Market Mean Reversion and the Optimal Equity Allocation of a Long-Lived Investor

This paper solves numerically the intertemporalconsumption and portfolio choiceproblem of an infinitely-lived investor whofaces a time-varying equity premium.The solutions we obtain are very similarto the approximate analytical solutionsof Campbell and Viceira (1999), except atthe upper extreme of the state spacewhere both the numerical consumption andportfolio rules flatten out.We also consider a constrained version ofthe problem in which the investor facesborrowing and short-sales restrictions.These constraints bind when the equitypremium moves away from its mean in eitherdirection, and are particularly severe forrisk-tolerant investors. The constraints havesubstantial effects on optimalconsumption, but much more modest effects onoptimal portfolio choice in theregion of the state space where they are notbinding.     

Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle

This article solves a realistically calibrated life cycle modelof consumption and portfolio choice with non-tradable laborincome and borrowing constraints. Since labor income substitutesfor riskless asset holdings, the optimal share invested in equitiesis roughly decreasing over life. We compute a measure of theimportance of human capital for investment behavior. We findthat ignoring labor income generates large utility costs, whilethe cost of ignoring only its risk is an order of magnitudesmaller, except when we allow for a disastrous labor incomeshock. Moreover, we study the implications of introducing endogenousborrowing constraints in this incomplete-markets setting.     

Transportation conditions and access to services in a context of urban sprawl and deregulation. The case of Dar es Salaam

Major deficiencies in urbanisation and transportation systems are reinforcing patterns of social and urban segregation in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania's largest city. Analysis of the 1993 Human Resources Development Survey shows that there are numerous obstacles to the daily travel of the city's inhabitants, notably the poor. These barriers weigh heavily on schedules, complicate access to services ever further, limit the use of urban space, and place considerable pressure on household budgets. Consequently, the poorest individuals tend to retreat into their neighbourhood where the low-quality urban facilities are unable to assist in the development of human and social capital and economic opportunities, the alleviation of poverty or the prevention of social exclusion.