The relative efficiency of commodity futures markets

The ability of futures markets to predict subsequent spot prices has been a controversial topic for a number of years. Empirical evidence to date is mixed; for any given market, some studies find evidence of efficiency, others of inefficiency. In part, these apparently conflicting findings reflect differences in the time periods analyzed and the methods chosen for testing. A limitation of existing tests is the classification of markets as either efficient or inefficient with no assessment of the degree to which efficiency is present. This article presents tests for unbiasedness and efficiency across a range of commodity and financial futures markets, using a cointegration methodology, and develops a measure of relative efficiency. In general, the findings suggest that spot and futures prices are cointegrated with a slope coefficient that is close to unity, so that the postulated long-run relationship is accepted. However, there is evidence that the long-run relationship does not hold in the short run; specifically, changes in the spot price are explained by lagged differences in spot and futures prices as well as by the basis. This suggests that market inefficiencies exist in the sense that past information can be used by agents to predict spot price movements. A measure of the relative degree of inefficiency (based on forecast error variances) is then used to compare the performance of different markets. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 413–432, 1999     

Response to haar's comment— and the beat goes on: Corporate downsizing in the twenty‐first century

Corporate downsizing continues to be a major strategy used by organizations to cope with a dynamic and turbulent global marketplace. A fundamental assumption made by executives is that this strategy improves the financial health of the corporation. De Meuse, Vanderheiden, and Bergmann (1994) examined several indices of financial performance over a five‐year period and found that firms employing downsizing experienced a deterioration in financial performance rather than an improvement. Haar (1999) questioned the findings of this study, asserting that if a company's risk level would have been included in the analysis, their results could have been different. In the present investigation, risk was incorporated in the original analysis. Again, the findings strongly indicate that downsizing was not an effective corporate strategy for enhancing the financial performance of corporations. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

The robustness of the asymmetrically dominated effect: Buying frames,phantom alternatives,and in‐store purchases

Given a choice set of two alternatives, the addition of a third alternative that is clearly inferior to one of the existing alternatives (but not the other), can result in a shift of preference to the alternative that dominates the new alternative. The basic asymmetrically dominated effect, as it is called, is first demonstrated under two different buying frames of mind (“What would you buy?” and “What would most people buy?”). It is then shown that the third alternative may be recognized as an unavailable option, yet still cause a preference shift. Finally, the asymmetrically dominated effect is demonstrated for real, in‐store purchases. It is concluded that the effect is robust, has a wide scope, is quite sizeable, and is of practical significance. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Overcoming the Trend Toward Healthier Foods: The Impact of Advertising and Intangibles on Investor Returns in the Packaged Food Industry

The study analyzes the impact of advertising, goodwill, and other intangibles on investor returns in the consumer packaged food and beverage industry during 2008–2012, a timeframe during which smaller brands wrestled $18 billion in sales away from large manufacturers of processed foods. The findings demonstrate that those firms that were able to allocate a greater percentage of their revenue to their ongoing advertising efforts were able to enhance investor holding period returns (HPR). In addition, those firms with a higher ratio of intangible assets other than goodwill to total assets were also able to enhance HPR. However, there was not a significant positive relationship between the ratio of acquired goodwill to total assets and HPR. Hence, packaged food and beverage manufacturers are advised to seek competitive advantages through their own brand-building efforts rather than seeking to enhance investor returns through a strategy based on company mergers and acquisitions.     

Consumer satisfaction in retail stores: theory and implications

The substitution of small retail stores by the large stores has been a topic of debate among academics, practitioners, retailers and general public, especially in the context of foreign firms entering emerging markets such as China and India. The purpose of this research is to find out the determinants of consumer satisfaction in small and large retail stores in an emerging market, with a sample from India. Data were collected using a 39‐item structured questionnaire developed by the authors. The sample consists of 225 consumers who shop at retail outlets (Convenience sample of 125 consumers from small and 100 consumers from large stores respectively). Exploratory factor analysis grouped the 39 variables into 14 factors. Further, regression analysis revealed that six of the factors (Social desirability, staff friendliness, shopping economy, shopping ambience, family shopping and deal proneness) were major predictors of consumer satisfaction as they were found to be significant at 5% level. The significance of factors such as social desirability and staff friendliness imply that many consumers prefer those typical features of small stores, which in turn results in the likely coexistence of small retail formats in spite of the entry and proliferation of large retail stores from different countries. We posit three theoretical propositions to stimulate further research in this area.     

User costs and bubbles in land markets

In asset markets with speculative behavior, the long-run equilibrium relationship between asset prices and the discounted flow of future rents may become invalid. We distinguish short-term user costs and longer-term user costs with variables that reflect fundamentals. We show how to work around the empirical problem of measuring speculative expectations about asset price changes and derive a simple user cost formula where the asset price change in the short-term relationship comes out as the long-run change in the overall price level.     

Market reactions to announcements to expense options

The joint hypotheses of informationally efficient markets, transparent financial statements, and adequate accounting disclosure suggest that announcements of changes in the accounting treatment of employee stock options from footnote disclosure to expense recognition should not trigger stock price reactions because free-cash-flows will not change. Event study results from a sample of 241 firms that announce such changes reveal statistically significant negative price changes followed by positive price changes about equal in magnitude. We propose the learning, sophisticated investor, neglected firm, and firm size hypotheses to explain the observed announcement-period stock price reaction.

Why has Irish Social Partnership Survived?

The present system of social partnership in Ireland is in its twentieth year. A range of explanations have been put forward to explain why social partnership has been so durable even though it does not possess the institutional endowments often considered necessary to sustain tripartite industrial relations arrangements. Although these accounts are considered to have merits, this article suggests that they also suffer from a range of weaknesses. The article suggests that the longevity of the social partnership regime is a result of it being part of an unorthodox system of institutional complementarities that triggered a spectacular period of economic and employment growth.     

Transitioning and co-evolving to upgrade value offerings: A competence-based marketing view

This article shows how subcontractors in the steel and metalworking industry can effectively upgrade their customer value offerings. The study intends to identify internal and external drivers for successful transitions. It builds on the IMP's (Industrial Marketing and Purchasing Group) research tradition by looking into value creation and competence-based marketing within business networks. Using qualitative methods, the research identifies ‘ideal’ value-added market positions and relates these to specific competence configurations. It also reveals the need to manage co-evolution with other network partners in order to make a successful transition from basic to value-added offerings. The paper contributes to business marketing science by looking explicitly into the mechanisms of internal alignment when upgrading value offerings (a pre-condition often overlooked in extant literature) and by extending the concept of co-evolution.