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41.
A look into the factor model black box: Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We derive forecast weights and uncertainty measures for assessing the roles of individual series in a dynamic factor model (DFM) for forecasting the euro area GDP from monthly indicators. The use of the Kalman smoother allows us to deal with publication lags when calculating the above measures. We find that surveys and financial data contain important information for the GDP forecasts beyond the monthly real activity measures. However, this is discovered only if their more timely publication is taken into account properly. Differences in publication lags play a very important role and should be considered in forecast evaluation. 相似文献
42.
This study aims to explore the motor insurance market's attitude towards usage‐based insurance (UBI), and thus its readiness for a launch in the near future. Data on client perception was collected using a structured questionnaire. On the basis of this, an initial selection of factors, other than income, that could influence the declared attitude of drivers was demonstrated showing that it is primarily dependent on certain demographic characteristics like their age, sex, or place of residence. A strong relationship was also demonstrated with respect to the intensity of the vehicle's use, to the amount of the insurance premium they have paid, and to the self‐assessment of the respondents' driving skills. Clients are likely to accept the concept of UBI once implemented, but that they are not ready yet to give up the traditionally used methods of premium calculation. Their attachment to discounts granted can be very strong in particular to the no‐claims bonus. 相似文献
43.
In their bid for integration with the European Union, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe are faced with the need to introduce numerous significant improvements to their economic systems. A highly important role in this process is to make changes in the existing banking systems. The credit risk evaluation method presented here, using taxonomic measures to plot so-called credit risk maps, may be used to develop sound principles of credit policies. It is a proposition that could solve one of the many problems arising in the course of adaptation of banking systems in Central and Eastern Europe to conditions of market economy. 相似文献
44.
Zbigniew Polański 《Atlantic Economic Journal》2004,32(4):280-292
In this paper, Poland's preparations to introduce the euro and discussions surrounding them are briefly analyzed. Its first
part deals with legal and macroeconomic developments before Poland's accession to the EU in May 2004. The second part considers
Poland's official position and possible future scenarios. The main conclusions are twofold. Firstly, it is argued that after
finishing successfully the disinflation process, Poland's monetary integration is above all subject to fiscal and exchange
rate developments. In both cases, they are a function of the economy's structural changes. Secondly, as a consequence, fulfilling
the Maastricht Treaty nominal convergence criteria by Poland will imply enough degree of real convergence for its successful
participation in the euro zone.
The opinions expressed in the paper are of the author and should not be attributed to any institution he is working for. He
would like to expresshis gratitude to Witold Grostal and Robert Woreta for providing the graphs. Helpful comments were made
by Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, Tomasz Chmielewski, and by Eduard Hochreiter. Language assistance was provided by Barton D. Raven.
Any remaining errors are solely the author's responsibility. 相似文献
45.
If an arbitrarily positive eigenvector is repeatedly premultiplied by a positive matrix, then the result tends towards a unique, positive (Frobenius) eigenvector. Brady has demonstrated that the expected absolute magnitude of the estimate of the second largest eigenvalue of a positive random matrix (with identically and independently distributed entries) declines monotonically with the increasing size of the matrix. Hence, the larger the system is, the faster is the convergence. Molnár and Simonovits examined Brady's conjecture in the case where entries of a stochastic matrix are close to 1/n. We prove this hypothesis for any stochastic and positive matrix. 相似文献
46.
47.
A method for constructing some new incomplete split-block designs with desirable properties is given. The new class of the designs is characterized with respect to the general balance property. Moreover, the efficiency factors of the designs proposed are given.Received: July 2003 / Revised: November 2003 相似文献
48.
49.
This article investigates whether political competition plays an important role in determining the level of agricultural protection. In order to do so, we exploit variation in political and economic data from 74 developing and developed countries for the post‐war period. We use two measures of political competition: one that captures the extent to which political power can be freely contested regardless of election results and one based on vote share at last parliamentary elections. Our results, based on static and dynamic panel estimators, show unambiguously that the higher the level of political competitions is, the higher the agricultural protection. 相似文献
50.