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51.
We consider an economic model that features (1) a continuum of agents and (2) an aggregate state of the world over which agents have an infinitesimal influence. We first review the connections between the ??eductive?? viewpoint on expectational stability and standard game-theoretical rationalizability concepts. The ??eductive?? reasoning selects different plausible beliefs that are a priori, and possibly a posteriori, ??diverse??. Such beliefs are associated with the sets of ??Cobweb tatonnement?? outcomes, ??Rationalizable States?? and ??Point-Rationalizable States?? (the latter two being shown to be convex). In the case where our model displays strategic complementarities, unsurprisingly, all our ??eductive?? criteria support similar conclusions, particularly when the equilibrium is unique. With strategic substitutabilities, the success of expectational coordination, in the case where a unique equilibrium does exists, relates with the absence of cycles of order 2 of the ??Cobweb?? mapping: in this case, full expectational coordination would be achieved. However, when cycles of order 2 do exist, our different criteria predict larger sets of outcomes, although all tied with cycles. Under differentiability assumptions, the Poincaré?CHopf method leads to other global stability results. At the local level, the different criteria under scrutiny can be adapted. They lead to the same expectational stability conclusions, only when there are local strategic complementarities or strategic substitutabilities. However, for the local stability analysis, it is demonstrated that the stochastic character of expectations can most often be forgotten. 相似文献
52.
Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira Marcelo Rodrigues dos Santos 《Review of Economic Dynamics》2013,16(2):350-370
This article studies the determinants of the labor force participation of the elderly and investigates the factors that may account for the increase in retirement in the second half of the last century. We develop a lifecycle general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds Social Security legislation and Medicare. Individuals are ex ante heterogeneous with respect to their preferences for leisure and face uncertainty about labor productivity, health status and out-of-pocket medical expenses. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy in 2000 and is able to reproduce very closely the retirement behavior of the American population. It reproduces the peaks in the distribution of Social Security applications at ages 62 and 65 and the observed facts that low earners and unhealthy individuals retire earlier. It also matches very closely the increase in retirement from 1950 to 2000. Changes in Social Security policy – which became much more generous – and the introduction of Medicare account for most of the expansion of retirement. In contrast, the isolated impact of the increase in longevity was a delaying of retirement. 相似文献
53.
December 1, 1996 a new law was implemented in Portugal to gradually reduce the standard workweek from 44 to 40 h. We study
how this mandatory reduction affected employment through job creation and job destruction. There was considerable regional,
sectoral and firm-size variation in the share of workers who were affected by the working hours reduction. We exploit this
variation to assess the impact of the workweek reduction. We find evidence that the working hours reduction had a positive
effect on employment through a fall in job destruction. 相似文献
54.
Cochrane John H.; Longstaff Francis A.; Santa-Clara Pedro 《Review of Financial Studies》2008,21(1):347-385
We solve a model with two i.i.d. Lucas trees. Although the correspondingone-tree model produces a constant price-dividend ratio andi.i.d. returns, the two-tree model produces interesting asset-pricingdynamics. Investors want to rebalance their portfolios afterany change in value. Because the size of the trees is fixed,prices must adjust to offset this desire. As a result, expectedreturns, excess returns, and return volatility all vary throughtime. Returns display serial correlation and are predictablefrom price-dividend ratios. Return volatility differs from cash-flowvolatility, and return shocks can occur without news about cashflows. 相似文献
55.
Method for identifying strategic objectives in strategy maps 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Luis E. Quezada Felisa M. Cordova Pedro Palominos Katherine Godoy Jocelyn Ross 《International Journal of Production Economics》2009,122(1):492
This paper describes a simple tool for identifying strategic objectives as part of the design of strategy maps, based on the balanced scorecard, and meant to be used in organisations to establish performance indicators. To design the tool, a number of companies that implemented the balanced scorecard were analysed, in order to obtain their methodologies to create strategy maps. Three types of methods were found, different from each other in the way the strategic objectives are defined. By studying the benefits and drawbacks of the three methods, a simple, method was obtained. Basically, the method identifies general and specific strategic objectives and uses a modified SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) analysis. This paper also makes an analysis of the type of strategic objectives that the studied companies defined as part of the balanced scorecard implementation process. 相似文献
56.
HETEROGENEITY IN REAL WAGE CYCLICALITY 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Pedro S. Martins 《Scottish journal of political economy》2007,54(5):684-698
This paper presents evidence that real wage cyclicality can be a particularly heterogeneous parameter, depending on different worker characteristics and also on the specific stage of the business cycle. Using matched employer–employee panel data for Portugal covering the period 1986–2004, real wages are shown to be considerably more procyclical during recessions than during expansions, resulting in relatively moderate overall levels of cyclicality (about −0.6). However, most of the procyclicality during downturns is shown to be driven by the younger employees, as older workers appear to be insulated from the business cycle. Moreover, movers between firms typically display higher cyclicality than workers that stay in the same firm, regardless of whether the latter move or not between job levels. Most results also hold when considering basic wages instead of total wages, except that the procyclicality of movers during downturns is substantially higher. 相似文献
57.
João Pedro Vidal Nunes 《Review of Derivatives Research》2011,14(3):283-332
A new characterization of the American-style option is proposed under a very general multifactor Markovian and diffusion framework.
The efficiency of the proposed pricing solutions is shown to depend only on the use of a viable valuation method for the corresponding
European-style option and for the transition density of the model’s state variables. Under a Gauss-Markov stochastic interest
rates setup, these new American option pricing solutions are shown to offer a much better accuracy-efficiency trade-off than
the approximations already available in the literature. This result is also used to price callable corporate bonds under an
endogenous bankruptcy structural approach, by decomposing the option to call or default into a European put on the firm value
plus two early exercise premium components. 相似文献
58.
We develop a positive model of waiting lists for public hospitals when physicians are able to divert patients from the public to the private sector. Public treatment is free but rationed, i.e., only cases meeting some medical criteria are admitted. Private treatment has no waiting time but entails payment of a fee. Physicians and patients take into account that each patient treated in the private practice reduces the waiting list for public treatment. We show that physicians do not necessarily end up treating the mildest cases from the waiting list. Our analysis is valid for a wide class of doctors' utility functions. 相似文献
59.
Raúl Pedro Mentz 《Journal of econometrics》1977,6(2):225-236
To estimate α in the model yt = ut+αut?1, we consider a proposal by Durbin (Biometrika, 1969). It consists in fitting an autoregression of order k to the data, and deriving from there an estimate α^. The probability limit and the variance of the limiting normal distribution of α^ are presented and discussed in detail, when the sample size T → ∞, but k remains fixed. The differences between the resulting values and those corresponding to the maximum likelihood estimator are exponentially decreasing functions of k. Several modifications of the estimator are discussed and found consistent, but asymptotically inefficient. 相似文献
60.