A new frontier for health care risk management

Today's sophisticated medical environment, combined with society's penchant for litigation, has created a broad array of perils for risk managers in the health care industry. Risk managers must deal with dilemmas posed by regulatory and technological changes that have vastly altered the medical field.     

Market microstructure

It is assumed that a collection of market agents can be treated as a statistical ensemble. Their market activities are depicted as the stochastic generation of market orders according to a Poisson process. The objective is to effectively describe the ‘temporal microstructure’, or moment-to-moment trading activities in asset markets. Two basic models, ‘dealership’ vs. ‘auction’ markets (and their variants) are put forth. Implications are drawn from each model. The implications include several testable hypotheses regarding the aggregate behavior of markets and market-makers as well as some qualitative insight into the transaction-to-transaction nature of realistic exchange processes.     

Onsite concurrent review: impacts on utilization, medical complications and expense

An evaluation of onsite concurrent review over and above the effects of Aetna's precertification program demonstrated reduced utilization and expenses, especially for ancillary services, and no adverse effects on rates of medical complications.     

Judgmental aggregation strategies depend on whether the self is involved

We report the results of a novel experiment that addresses two unresolved questions in the judgmental forecasting literature. First, how does combining the estimates of others differ from revising one’s own estimate based on the judgment of another? The experiment found that participants often ignored advice when revising an estimate but averaged estimates when combining. This was true despite receiving identical feedback about the accuracy of past judgments. Second, why do people consistently tend to overweight their own opinions at the expense of profitable advice? We compared two prominent explanations for this, differential access to reasons and egocentric beliefs, and found that neither adequately accounts for the overweighting of the self. Finally, echoing past research, we find that averaging opinions is often advantageous, but that choosing a single judge can perform well in certain predictable situations.     

Economic Development and Income Distribution: A Cross-National Analysis

Abstract . The relationship between level of economic development and income distribution is analyzed using both a relative measure of income distribution and, for the first time, an absolute measure of income distribution which corrects for purchasing power differences between nations. Cross sectional regression analysis findings indicate support for non-linear relationships both in the total sample of 68 nations, and also in sub-samples of 54 developing nations and 14 industrial democracies. Our findings suggest that the poorest 40 percent of the population lose income both relatively and absolutely in the early stages of economic development. Thereafter there are gains in income although with diminishing marginal returns at the highest levels of development.