Outlier Detection in the Lognormal Logarithmic Conditional Autoregressive Range Model

An outlier detection procedure in the lognormal logarithmic conditional autoregressive range (lognormal Log‐CARR) model is proposed. The proposed test statistic is demonstrated to be well‐sized and to have good power using Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, the outlier detection procedure suffers less from the masking effect caused by multiple outliers. The results of an empirical investigation show that the proposed method can effectively detect volatility outliers and improve forecasting accuracy.     

The influence of Internet on politics: the impact of Facebook and the Internet penetration on elections in Taiwan

Previous research on elections indicates that the rise of social media has had a positive impact on political participation and political interest, resulting in more voters going to the polls. However, there has been no research on the impact that social media have on bringing about a change in government. This research investigates the impact that the Internet and the Chinese version of Facebook have had on election results in Taiwan from 2001 to 2016. The findings indicate that after the Chinese version of Facebook appeared in 2008, the higher the penetration rate of the Internet in the Taiwan region, the more likely that political power will change hands and the ruling party will lose an election.     

An empirical study of the effects of Guanxi investment on customer loyalty in Chinese market

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship among Guanxi investment, affective commitment and customer loyalty. A customer win-back model is proposed, including Guanxi investment strategies, customer perceptions (price sensitivity, trust and affection), affective commitment and customer 1oyalty(i.e., true loyalty, latent loyalty, spurious loyalty, non loyalty). The fieldwork was conducted in the hotel industry in China (N=1074). Results show that Guanxi investment strategy has significant effects on customer’s loyalty. This study hence contributes to the literature on customer win-back strategy and provides useful suggestions for managers in charge of customer relationship management.     

区域人口社会经济系统动态仿真模型研究

信息化是 2 1世纪国际竞争的焦点 ,世界上许多国家和地区都对其社会信息化水平进行了测定。本文建立一测定模型 ,对浙江省信息化水平进行测定及分析 ,给出了推进浙江省社会信息化建设的建议     

Prospect theory and the effectiveness of price limits

Assuming that traders are risk-neutral, Brennan (1986) shows that price limits are effective in improving the efficiency of futures contracts with limited accessibility to information because they obscure the exact loss when they are triggered. However, Brennan's (1986) model fails to explain why price limits also exist in contracts with abundant information like those of financial futures. We show that when traders are loss-averse, the effectiveness of price limits is strengthened even in the presence of precise information. Thus, our analysis provides a theoretical foundation explaining why price limits can be useful when market participants are not fully rational.     

An effective evaluation model and improvement analysis for national park websites: A case study of Taiwan

Taiwanese National Park Headquarters employ advanced information technologies to attract travellers, researchers, and other visitors, but it is likely that not all Headquarters have clear knowledge about how successful their websites are. This study proposes an effective model for evaluating national park websites. The model first applies the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) to cope with the interdependencies between evaluation criteria. Next, it uses the Analytic Network Process (ANP) to compute weights for each criterion. Finally, it uses the VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) to rank Taiwanese national park websites. Overall, the results show that each national park website must be improved in order to become a high quality website. Furthermore, the weight-variance analysis suggests managerial actions based on two-dimensional maps for improving website quality. Therefore, this study not only provides a comprehensive and systematic approach that quantitatively measures a website's overall performance, but also contributes to practical applications in terms of providing worthwhile recommendations for building an ideal website.     

Credit ratings and excess value of diversification

We investigate the impact of credit ratings on the valuation of diversification. Our empirical results indicate that the existence and level of credit ratings are associated with a lower negative effect of diversification. Further analysis reveals that the mitigating effect of credit ratings on the diversification discount is more pronounced for firms with more severe information asymmetry. In addition, both a change in firm status from no rating to being rated and a change in rating level from low to high lead to a significant reduction in the diversification discount. An event study on diversification buttresses the findings by showing that the market has a less negative reaction to rated and higher-rated firms around the announcement of diversifying mergers. Our results are robust to alternative techniques used to control for potential endogeneity bias, to controlling for corporate governance, and to different sample periods. Overall, the evidence suggests that credit ratings reduce information asymmetry problems and thus mitigate the diversification discount.