基于Stacking模型融合的店铺销量预测

为了实现企业产品销量预估,提高生产供应的准确性与效率,提出了基于Stacking模型的融合算法进行销量预测。算法设计了两层堆叠的模型结构,初级学习器采用随机森林、支持向量回归、差分整合移动平均自回归、轻量级梯度提升机器和门控循环单元5种单模型,将分类与回归树作为次级学习器构成Stacking融合模型,并对数据进行了预测。预测结果显示,使用Stacking模型融合后得到了较好的预测结果,比单模型中效果最好的模型的均方根误差更小,平均绝对误差更小,决定系数值更大,表明Stacking融合模型的预测准确率更高。所设计模型可用于对企业店铺的产品销量进行预测,帮助企业更好地安排生产、营销活动,为减少库存、缩短生产销售周期提供数据支持,对企业生产决策有一定的参考价值。     

地下综合管廊混凝土爆灰检测及加固

针对某市钢筋混凝土地下综合管廊的现浇顶板、侧壁出现的混凝土爆灰质量缺陷,为确保管廊结构的安全使用,采用钻心法、超声波法、沸煮试验、爆灰物质的化学成分分析等检测方法,对爆灰现象进行了检测。结果显示,混凝土中存在的块状氧化钙与水熟化后体积增大1倍~2.5倍,使得混凝土在强度未达到设计抗拉强度前在块状氧化钙体积膨胀应力作用下被拉裂,导致了此类质量缺陷的发生。分析了质量缺陷对管廊结构的影响,并对管廊结构进行了加固设计及处理,满足了结构的正常安全使用要求。研究结果可为类似爆灰缺陷的设计及处理提供参考。     

Learning design and technology through social networks for high school students in China

The subject of design and technology was introduced to the curriculum for high schools in China 10 years ago. However, the teaching and learning of this subject have become difficult for both teachers and students because there is a lack of qualified teachers with design background to deliver this subject in a way to stimulate the learning interests of the students. This paper presents a research that is aimed at improving this situation by integrating the teaching and learning of design and technology within a computational environment as part of social networks sites. The purpose is to enable the collaboration among the students and interaction between teachers and students. In this research, a series of investigations were conducted, by following through several taught subjects in design and technology in prominent high schools in China. Based on these investigations, a theoretical framework for web-based design learning and teaching system in the style of social networking is developed, implemented and tested, emphasizing three features of design: innovation, collaboration, and interaction. This framework has been tested among high school students and teachers in a high school in Nanjing. It identified and validated necessary techniques and design features required to make an education-related social networking site effective and affective for the students and teachers. The results of this research indicated that social networking sites have significantly positive values in design education, especially for the collaboration and interaction on the subject of design and technology.     

How do internal capabilities and external partnerships affect innovativeness?

How do a firm’s internal capabilities and external partnerships contribute to its product and process innovativeness? How do their impacts differ? Based on the theoretical framework of exploitation and exploration, we develop an integrative model linking the impact of both internal capabilities and external partnerships on product and process innovativeness. Survey responses from Taiwanese biotechnology firms indicate that research and development (R&;D), marketing, and manufacturing capabilities have different effects on product and process innovativeness. Of the four types of external partnerships, only partnerships with universities and research institutes seem to add value, whereas partnerships with suppliers, customers, and competitors do not contribute to innovativeness. Moreover, marketing capability and customer partnerships have a positive interaction effect on product innovativeness, while manufacturing capability and supplier partnerships have a positive interaction effect on process innovativeness.     

我国生物医药产业园运营模式的思考

借鉴企业运营模式的经验,从管理、赢利以及资本运营三个方面对我国生物医药产业园区的运营模式进行分析,对我国生物医药产业固区发展过程中经验和问题进行深刻剖析,以期对推动我国生物医药产业园区的合理建设和健康发展提供一定的参考意见。     

先进文化对构建社会主义和谐社会的意义和价值

先进文化是社会主义和谐社会最重要的文化资源,也是和谐社会生成的标志。先进文化促进社会走向和谐,和谐社会彰显先进文化的意义和价值。发展先进文化与构建和谐社会在本质上是统一和一致的。     

基于经济资本管理的贷款系统性风险防范研究

在系统性风险防范的视角下,本文对经济资本管理的基本方法进行了重新梳理,发现现行的经济资本管理会导致亲周期效应问题,削弱其防范系统性风险的能力。为此,要在系统性风险防范目标下改进经济资本计量方法,以科学的系统性风险预测为基础确定经济资本限额,优化经济资本在行业和地区层面的分配,以及通过贷款集中度管理追求风险分散最大化,从而实现对系统性风险的有效防范。     

市场估值与价值投资策略——基于中国证券市场的经验研究

中国股票市场近年开始重新重视价值投资,但真正能运用价值投资策略进行投资的并不多见。本文研究在我国的证券市场中,价值投资是否适用和有效,通过实证分析的方法,检验价值投资策略在中国证券市场的适应性。本文的结论有助于逐渐改变目前中国证券市场上中小投资者跟风炒作、希望在短期内获得高额回报的投机理念和过度炒作的现象,对于提倡理性投资,抑制过度投机是非常有益的。     

基于网络DEA的科技创新型企业投资效率评价分析

企业投资效率是影响企业价值的关键因素。本文在划分投资转化过程子阶段的基础上构建投资效率评价模型及指标体系,运用二阶段网络DEA方法测算我国创业板科技创新型上市公司2012～2014年投资效率值及非效率投资的改进程度。实证结果表明,科技创新型上市公司利润产生子阶段投资效率较低,并且研发支出、无形资产以及长期投资三方面的投资冗余现象明显,但是多数上市公司两个阶段的投资效率随着时间的推移逐渐趋向双重高效。     

全尺寸评价方法标准化 提升油套管质量水平

油套管产品在油气勘探开发及生产过程中发挥着重要的作用,油套管产品质量的好坏直接关系着油气田的生产成本及使用寿命。通过分析油套管产品的使用现状,论述了油套管全尺寸评价标准在控制、提升油套管质量方面的重要作用。在分析、研究国际标准、油田工况、失效案例、科研成果的基础上,实现油套管全尺寸评价方法标准化,填补了我国油套管质量控制领域全尺寸评价标准的空白。全尺寸评价方法标准在油气田及生产厂推广实施情况表明,应用全尺寸性能评价标准,能够实现对油套管质量的全面控制,提升油套管产品质量,对油气勘探开发事业的发展具有重要的经济及社会意义。