Demystifying the Meese–Rogoff puzzle: structural breaks or measures of forecasting accuracy?

Structural breaks have been suggested by several economists as a possible explanation for the Meese–Rogoff puzzle, in the sense that an exchange rate model can outperform the random walk in terms of the out-of-sample forecasting error if the period under investigation is free of structural breaks. The results indicate that structural breaks cannot explain the inability of the flexible price monetary model to outperform the random walk. The only plausible explanation for the Meese–Rogoff puzzle is that forecasting accuracy is traditionally assessed by magnitude-only measures. When forecasting accuracy is assessed by alternative measures that do not rely exclusively on the magnitude of error, the monetary model can outperform the random walk regardless of the presence or otherwise of structural breaks.     

Fuzzy Bargaining Games: Conditions of Agreement,Satisfaction, and Equilibrium

Game theory in its several variants is widely recognized as a contribution to social and economic modeling. One relevant development of classical game theory, Generalized Game Theory (GGT), entails its extension and generalization through the formulation of the mathematical theory of rules and rule complexes. Social theory concepts such as norm, value, belief, role, social relationship, and institution as well as game can be defined in a uniform way in terms of rules and rule complexes. Among the applications, one major initiative has been the conceptualization of fuzzy games and equilibria. In this paper a GGT model of 2-person fuzzy bargaining games is outlined. Two key concepts are applied: (1) players’ value (or “utility”) structures consisting of ideal points or expectation levels, on the one hand, and limits of acceptance, on the other; (2) fuzzy judgment functions in which players deal with imprecise information and use approximate reasoning in making decisions and negotiating agreements. Such fuzzy judgment functions can take into account economic, socio-psychological, and cultural and institutional aspects of the bargaining context, which affect the bargaining process in specifiable ways. Several significant results are obtained from the application of this model: the opportunities (or not) for agreement, the participants’ satisfaction levels with an agreement, and the question whether or not the agreed “price” is an equilibrium price.     

Two Sides of the Same Coin: Re-examining Nepotism and Discrimination in a Segmented Society

Abstract

We report the results from a series of trust games designed to distinguish racial discrimination from racial nepotism, played with a sample of high school students in Cape Town, South Africa. In contrast to the original work in this regard by Fershtman et al. (2005 Fershtman, C., Gneezy, U. and Verboven, F. 2005. “Discrimination and Nepotism: the efficiency of the anonymity rule,”. Journal of Legal Studies, 34: 371–396. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), we find considerably greater heterogeneity in the way that proposers respond to the revealed racial identity of their partner, with nepotism being a dominant behavior. However, while some proposers exhibit a nepotistic bias in their offers that favors in-group members on average, others exhibit a nepotistic strategy that favors out-group members. A consequence of this nepotism is that both efficiency and equity are reduced on average.     

Does Say‐on‐Pay Matter? Evidence from Say‐on‐Pay Proposals in the United States

We investigate the effect of say‐on‐pay (SOP) proposals on changes in executive and director compensation. Relative to non‐SOP firms, SOP firms’ total compensation to CEOs does not significantly change after the proposal. However, the mix of compensation does change—companies move away from using cash compensation toward more incentive compensation, offsetting the reduction in bonus. Further, the mix of compensation of non‐CEO executives changes similarly to that of CEOs. Compensation to directors of SOP firms increases less than non‐SOP firms. Firms whose CEOs are well compensated, especially with cash‐based compensation, are most likely to receive a proposal.     

Sustainability of Tourism Development in Macao,China

To maximize the benefits to stakeholders in Macao, the sustainability of Macao tourism was examined by assessing the economic, socio‐cultural and environmental impacts of tourism, visitor satisfaction and the level of community involvement in local tourism planning from 2002 to 2009, through the use of primary and secondary data. The results revealed that tourism did bring both positive and negative impacts to the community. Visitor satisfaction was found to be moderate. Channels for community participation in local tourism development were also lacking. The paper suggests that for sustainable tourism development, Macao needs to diversify away from its casino industry, to speed up the construction of the public transport system and to keep monitoring the environmental conditions, the students' drop‐out and crime rate and the locals' quality of life. More importantly, a master plan for its tourism development integrating all the key stakeholders' interests is urgently required. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Food retailers' perceptions of older consumers in Northern Ireland

Demographic changes' occurring in developed countries has meant that older consumers are becoming an increasingly important consumer segment that retailers need to pay particular attention to. It is essential that their specific needs within the food and other service sectors are met, as food plays an important role in their social well‐being. Very little research has focused upon the extent to which retailers meet their demands and particular needs. The aim of this study, as part of a wider study on older consumers, is to address this lack of information by examining the level of awareness held by food retail management as to the needs of older consumers (60+ years old) and the problems that they encounter while shopping. Qualitative data were collected using face‐to‐face interviews with retail managers (n = 5) from food retailers in Northern Ireland. These were analysed according to Gillham's content analysis guide. Food retailers stated they were aware of the issues older consumers face and recognize their importance as a growing consumer segment; however, there would appear to be relatively little actual consideration/evidence of them meeting their needs. All interviewees expressed an interest in improving the food shopping experiences of older consumers, and were keen to make an increased effort towards this segment of the population, but these were often not put into practice. In order to overcome the problems faced by older consumers and strengthen the food shopping experience for this age group, it is suggested that retail management make practical changes to improve in‐store facilities, increase affordability of food products and home delivery services, and enhance customer communication.     

Politics and sustainable tourism development – Can they co-exist? Voices from North Cyprus

This paper investigates ways in which political obstacles inhibit the formulation and implementation of sustainable tourism development in small-island developing states through the example of North Cyprus. The methodology draws on in-depth interviews and participant observation of significant actors in the tourism sector. The research findings suggest that understanding the intricate political system and power structure in a society is the key to understanding sustainable tourism policy development, planning and implementation. In the case of North Cyprus, policy development was found to be a product of political influence (referred to as ego-driven politics in the text), specifically the use of public resources as an instrument for political power, retention and that the politicisation of the public sector is the underlying cause of the weakened progress in sustainable tourism development. It is therefore essential to have a clear understanding of political issues, key political actors’ interests and how to mitigate personal interests to facilitate and maintain sustainable tourism development in such small states.     

‘The town dictates what I do’: the leisure,health and well-being of women in a small Australian country town

The contribution of leisure to individual health and well-being is well documented. It is also clear that patterns of leisure activity are differentiated by gender and regional differences, as well as those of age, class and ethnicity. This paper explores the leisure and well-being of mid aged rural women in a small Australian country town in the late 1990s, focusing on issues which have been identified in the Canadian literature as being significant for women in isolated areas. These issues, which constrain the choices women make about their lives, include poor job opportunities, a lack of public transport and other facilities, family transience, community designs that isolate women in their homes, and the politics of being ‘different’ in a small community. Commonalities in the lives of rural women in North America, New Zealand and Australia indicate that these issues may more broadly characterise the lives of women in isolated towns in western post-industrial societies. Data are drawn from focus group interviews, augmented with observation, and the study is contextualized in findings from the Women's Health Australia longitudinal study (WHA).