Metal prices made in China? A network analysis of industrial metal futures

In addition to being the world's greatest consumer and producer of industrial metals, China now also features the most actively traded industrial metal futures contracts worldwide. To examine China's role in the global price formation process of industrial metal futures markets, we use a sample of 29 futures contracts traded on exchanges in the United States, the United Kingdom, India, and China. We estimate vector autoregressive models and conduct variance decompositions, which are then visualized in the form of networks. The results indicate that China, despite its role as key actor in both real and financial industrial metal markets, is a price taker.     

Online distributed learning in wind power forecasting

Forecasting wind power generation up to a few hours ahead is of the utmost importance for the efficient operation of power systems and for participation in electricity markets. Recent statistical learning approaches exploit spatiotemporal dependence patterns among neighbouring sites, but their requirement of sharing confidential data with third parties may limit their use in practice. This explains the recent interest in distributed, privacy preserving algorithms for high-dimensional statistical learning, e.g. with auto-regressive models. The few approaches that have been proposed are based on batch learning. However, these approaches are potentially computationally expensive and do not allow for the accommodation of nonstationary characteristics of stochastic processes like wind power generation. This paper closes the gap between online and distributed optimisation by presenting two novel approaches that recursively update model parameters while limiting information exchange between wind farm operators and other potential data providers. A simulation study compared the convergence and tracking ability of both approaches. In addition, a case study using a large dataset from 311 wind farms in Denmark confirmed that online distributed approaches generally outperform existing batch approaches while preserving privacy such that agents do not have to actively share their private data.     

Global migration in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the unstoppable force of demography

Review of World Economics - This paper sheds light on the global migration patterns of the past 40 years, and produces migration projections for the 21st century. To do this, we build a simple...     

Policy impact assessment in developing countries using Social Accounting Matrices: The Kenya SAM 2014

This paper describes the structure and estimation of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Kenya for the year 2014. Among its specificities, this SAM includes a very high disaggregation of the agri‐food sector and accounts for the double role of households as producers and consumers. Accounting for these characteristics is crucial to provide robust socioeconomic analysis in the context of developing countries. Indeed, this type of database is valuable to perform ex‐ante evaluations of economic policies with various economic models and techniques. In this paper, we present an application with a linear multiplier analysis (backward linkages and value chain decomposition). The results show the capacity of the primary sector in Kenya to generate value added and employment, with this growth distributed more intensely in rural households whose main livelihood is semi‐subsistence agriculture.     

The reliability of constructs derived from attitude-behavior theories: an application of generalizability theory in the health sector

Theories of reasoned action, interpersonal behavior and self-efficacy have been frequently used for research into health-related behavior. The present study investigated two methods for assessing the reliability of their theories' constructs: the test-retest method and generalizability theory. Firstly, it is demonstrated with a numerical example that the traditional test-retest coefficient has an anatomical link with the generalizability coefficient. Secondly, generalizability theory was applied in order to identify the number of occasions each construct must be measured to assure its reliability. This procedure was applied to the data collected in a study investigating the psychosocial factors influencing exercising and smoking behaviors among pregnant women. Measuring the constructs of direct attitude, habit, and intention on only one occasion was sufficient to ensure high levels of reliability. Moreover, reliability of the other constructs would be ensured if they were measured on more than one occasion.     

New technology based firms and the creation of regional growth potential

This paper focuses on the role of New Technology Based Firms (NTBFs) as a vital determinant of regional growth potential. The theoretical framework starts from the relation between innovation and economic development (macro-approach), to show how NTBFs can contribute to the creation of a regional growth potential (micro-approach). Empirical data for Belgium illustrate how NTBFs differ significantly from common starters on a number of fundamental characteristics such as educational level, product/market-orientation, socio-economic networking, delegation, growth strategy and Research and Development. Taking these findings into account, we concentrate on the region-specific technology policies in Belgium. The case of the emerging biotechnology industry is used as an illustration.     

The right to food in historical perspective

The right to food is the most fundamental of economic rights. The author disagrees with pessimists who claim that economic rights will never be ensured due to opposition from those who take advantage of the status quo, and believes that social transformations can occur, as history has shown. After outlining the historical background to the right to food, he identifies processes of deprivation in the 1980s, such as the impact of pricing policies, and food insecurity among the urban poor. Finally he outlines some recommendations to Third World governments seeking to ensure the right of food to its peoples.     

在低维空间实现的基于MP的图像稀疏分解

研究利用Matching Pursuit(MP)方法实现的图像稀疏分解算法，针对其中关键难题，提出利用在低维空间的搜索实现高维空间的搜索的快速方法。算法的有效性为实验结果所证实。