The power of bad: The negativity bias in Australian consumer sentiment announcements on stock returns

This paper examines the equity market reaction to the monthly release of Australian consumer sentiment news. Our results indicate that consumer sentiment has valuable information content. Further, we document a version of the “negativity effect” (from the psychology literature) in which, upon announcement of bad (good) sentiment news, the equity market experiences a significant negative (no) announcement day effect. Notably, we find that the market recovers from the bad news shock relatively quickly post-announcement. The results are robust to a broad range of additional tests.     

Determining returns to bidding firms’ shareholders using different benchmark methods: an Australian study

This article revisits the determinants of cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) for bidder firm shareholders around takeover bid announcements and in particular, if bidder CAR estimates differ significantly between conditional and unconditional models. The results indicate that CAR estimation is significantly different between the two models. The conditional model is theoretically superior to the traditional unconditional model due to the former controlling for unobservable factors surrounding the bid announcement. This study shows that it is important to account for unobservable factors in growth (organic versus takeover) strategies to infer the true effect of the bidder's characteristics on CAR.     

The cost-effectiveness of extended-release calcifediol versus paricalcitol for the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism in stage 3–4 CKD

Abstract

Aims: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) not on dialysis frequently have vitamin D insufficiency (VDI) and secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT), which are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease, fracture, CKD progression, and death. This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of extended-release calcifediol (ERC) vs paricalcitol for the treatment of patients with CKD stages 3–4 that have SHPT and VDI.

Materials and methods: An economic analysis of SHPT treatments among a hypothetical cohort of 1,000 patients with CKD Stage 3 and 4 with SHPT and VDI was developed to estimate differences in the rates and costs of CV events, fractures, CKD stage progression, and mortality in patients treated with ERC and paricalcitol. A Markov model was developed with 1-year cycles and a 5-year time horizon from a US Medicare payer perspective with costs valued in 2017?US dollars.

Results: The outcomes of the model were rates of clinical events, total costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Across a 1,000-person cohort, ERC was the dominant (less costly, more effective) treatment strategy when compared with paricalcitol. Treatment with ERC resulted in cost savings of $14.8?M (95% CI = –$10.0?M–$45.2?M) and an incremental gain of 340 QALYs (95% CI = 200–496) compared to treatment with paricalcitol.

Limitations: Bridging biochemical levels to clinical outcomes may not represent real-world risk of the clinical events modeled. Future real-world outcomes of patients treated with ERC and paricalcitol may be used to evaluate the model results.

Conclusions: This model demonstrated favorable short- and long-term clinical benefits associated with the use of ERC in patients with CKD Stage 3 and 4 with SHPT and VDI, suggesting ERC may be cost-effective from the Medicare perspective compared to paricalcitol.     

The Long-Term Performance of Corporate Bonds (and Stocks) Following Seasoned Equity Offerings

Previous studies document negative long-term abnormal stockreturns following seasoned equity offering (SEO) issuances andconclude that markets are inefficient. Other studies, however,argue that these results are a manifestation of risk mismeasurement(i.e., the bad-model problem), not market inefficiency. We testthe efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and avoid the bad-modelproblem by examining the long-term performance of our samplefirms' bonds and stocks following their SEOs. Our results areinconsistent with the EMH. We also provide evidence that SEOstransfer wealth from shareholders to bondholders because SEOsreduce default risk.     

Common asset pricing factors in volatilities and returns in futures markets

Factor-based asset pricing models have been used to explain the common predictable variation in excess asset returns. This paper combines means with volatilities of returns in several futures markets to explain their common predictable variation. Using a latent variables methodology, tests do not reject a single factor model with a common time-varying factor loading. The single common factor accounts for up to 53% of the predictable variation in the volatilities and up to 14% of the predictable variation in the means. S&P500 futures volatility predicted by the factor model is highly correlated with volatility implied in S&P500 futures options. But both the factor and implied volatilities are significant in predicting future volatility. In derivatives pricing, both implied volatility from options and factors extracted from asset pricing models should be employed.     

发展中加贸易的障碍——倾销与反倾销问题

加拿大与中国都是世界贸易大国,随着中国加入 WTO,两国的贸易地位正趋于平等,因此加拿大与中国之间的贸易存在着巨大的上升空间。此文章分析中加贸易所面临的障碍——倾销与反倾销问题,并提出若干解决此问题的措施。     

Information Asymmetry and Valuation Effects of Debt Financing

This study demonstrates that under conditions of information asymmetry, shareholders earn positive returns around the shelf registration date of straight debt. The results provide evidence to support Miller and Rock's conclusion that new expected financing by firms can result in positive returns to shareholders and Blazenko's contention that positive returns around the announcement date of straight debt issuance may be found by studying firms with asymmetric information. Firms with reported research and development expenses are assumed to have a higher level of asymmetric information and a greater chance of requiring new outside financing. Research and development expense intensity and abnormal earnings in future periods are found to be significant in a cross-sectional regression explaining abnormal returns for days surrounding the announcement period.     

Stock Option Measures and the Stock Repurchase Decision

The major purposes of this study are two fold. First, we investigate whether or not the dilutive effect from stock options on the denominator of earnings per share is associated with the incurrence of stock repurchases. We use the FASB dilution and the economic dilution as the direct dilution measures and examine their relationship with stock repurchase decision. Second, we explore which of the extant measures of stock options can better explain the incurrence of stock repurchases. Six extant measures of stock options from previous studies are used: (1) the FASB's treasury-stock EPS dilution method, (2) the economic dilution measure based on Core, Guay and Kothari (2002), (3) the number of employee stock option exercises, (4) the number of stock option grants, (5) the number of total stock options outstanding, and (6) the number of exercisable stock options.Using a pooled cross-sectional sample from 1996–2000, we find a positive association between the likelihood of stock repurchases and the FASB dilution as well as the economic dilution in EPS, respectively. Thereby providing support for the undo-dilution hypothesis. The highest incremental explanatory power is found when we add the number of stock options exercisable to the baseline model. However, further analysis does not support the option-funding hypothesis suggested by Kahle (2002). We provide two explanations for why exercisable stock options better explain the stock repurchase decision.     

Decision‐making capabilities of a hybrid system applied to the auditor's going‐concern assessment

The purpose of this study is to evaluate a hybrid system as a decision support model to assist with the auditor's going‐concern assessment. The going‐concern assessment is often an unstructured decision that involves the use of both qualitative and quantitative information. An expert system that predicts the going‐concern decision has been developed in consultation with partners at three of the Big Five accounting firms. This system is combined with a statistical model that predicts bankruptcy, as a component of the auditor's decision, to form a hybrid system. The hybrid system, because it combines the use of quantitative and qualitative information, has the potential for better prediction accuracy than either the expert system or statistical model predicting separately. In addition, testing of the system provides some insight into the characteristics of firms that experience problems, but do not necessarily receive a going‐concern modification. Further investigation into those firms that have problems could reveal factors that may be incorporated into decision support systems for auditors, in order to improve accuracy and reliability of these decision tools. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.