On the relationship between the value of the mark and German production

This study employs Johansen's cointegration technique to determine the long-run relationship between exchange value of the DM and German production. It is shown that depreciation of the DM has a long-run expansionary impact on German production. This conclusion is based on a new method of selecting the order of VAR and the appropriate cointegrating vector simultaneously.     

The Government/Democrats' package of changes in indirect taxes

Australia is faced with a comprehensive package of changes to its indirect tax system, including the introduction of a GST. The Government's only quantitative analysis in formulating the package employed PRISMOD, an archaic input-output price model. PRISMOD sheds dim light on a very limited range of policy-relevant variables. This article explains how PRISMOD works; this is of continuing relevance because PRISMOD results are a benchmark in negotiations concerning the price effects of the tax package. Then an assessment of the package is made using MONASH, a comprehensive dynamic general equilibrium model. Overall, the conclusions are negative: the package is welfare-reducing and unnecessary.     

Technology,organizations and incrementalism:high rise system building in the UK

Since th problems of inflexible technologies are well known, we may ask why they are selected. The case study here agree with others in a wider research programme in that there was a great deal of pain surrounding the inflexible innovation of high rise system built flats; there were technical alternatives which were more flexible; the technology was supported by a centralized bureaucracy whose perception of risk was distored; and there were organizaional alternatives which were less centralized. Lessons are drawn about the problems of developing inflexible technology and the degreee of organizational centralization appropriate for technological innovation. These are restated in terms of incrementalism. A good technology is one which can be developed incrementally, by a relatively decentralized organization.     

The effects of open skies agreements on transatlantic air service levels

This paper examines the effects of Open Skies agreements on service levels in transatlantic aviation markets. Our route analysis reveals that Open Skies agreements between European countries and the US have resulted in both increases and decreases in service levels. Of the 22 European countries with US Open Skies agreements in place by 2007, only seven demonstrated increases in service levels while six showed reductions. Five countries saw no significant change and the remaining four have yet to receive direct transatlantic service, suggesting that liberalization alone does not lead to service level increases.     

The cell phone effect on motor vehicle fatality rates: A Bayesian and classical econometric evaluation

This paper examines the potential effect of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates normalized for other driving related and socioeconomic factors. The model used is non-linear so as to address both life-taking and life-saving attributes of cell phones. The model is evaluated using classical methods along with Bayesian Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA). The use of both classical and Bayesian methods diminishes the model and parameter uncertainties which afflict more conventional modeling methods which rely on only one of the two methods. The results indicate the presence of both life-taking and life-saving attributes of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates depending on the volume of cell phone subscribers in existence.