Formulating standards for sustainable forest management in Canada

Over the past decade, but particularly in the years since Rio, many initiatives have surfaced in the name of sustainable forest management (SFM). There is now a growing literature recognizing new techniques in timber labelling and the certification of sustainable management systems. However, they have not yet been located adequately in wider political contexts, such as the new (non-governmental) approaches to regulatory compliance or the new corporate response to the western environmental movement. This article examines a leading SFM framework in Canada, known as the Z808 initiative. Co-ordinated by the Canadian Standards Association (CSA), it advances a system of standards pertaining to sustainable forest management. As a politically-driven process to translate the concepts and practices of sustainable resource management into a concrete form, the CSA experience is very revealing. The article reviews the origins and the parameters of the Z808 system. This is followed by a commentary and critique of the system, centred on four dimensions: the pivotal role of the management system approach, the treatment of sustainability as a conceptual goal, the enclosure of the public interest, and the underlying convergence of business and state interests within this third-party certification approach. In the case of Z808, the most crucial political choices have been made already, and the operational logic of the system can be clearly discerned. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Informal Traders and the Battlegrounds of Revanchism in Cusco,Peru

Informal trading in the global South, particularly in Latin America, is the subject of revanchist urban policy and yet few studies have examined the longer‐term impacts of such intolerant policies on traders. This article explores the evolution and impacts of revanchist policies directed at informal traders in the Andean city of Cusco. It makes two key contributions. First, it documents a shift from early revanchist policies to a post‐revanchist era where policies have become more tolerant of informal traders. However, contemporary policies fall short of a supportive environment for informal trading, hence the authors recommend changes that will ensure informal traders can access the city's streets and become an accepted part of the urban fabric. Second, given the lack of theoretical attention given to the impacts of revanchism, a battlegrounds framework is developed, consisting of spatial, political, economic and socio‐cultural battlegrounds. This framework provides a comprehensive insight into the complex set of interactions that exist between informal traders and the state. It is hoped that the framework will provide a tool for further research into the highly damaging impacts of revanchism across the globe.     

Correlation dynamics and international diversification benefits

Forecasting the evolution of security co-movements is critical for asset pricing and portfolio allocation. Hence, we investigate patterns and trends in correlations over time using weekly returns for developed markets (DMs) and emerging markets (EMs) over the period 1973–2012. We show that it is possible to model co-movements for many countries simultaneously using BEKK, DCC, and DECO models. Empirically, we find that correlations have trended upward significantly for both DMs and EMs. Based on a time-varying measure of diversification benefits, we find that it is not possible to circumvent the increasing correlations in a long-only portfolio by adjusting the portfolio weights over time. However, we do find some evidence that adding EMs to a DM-only portfolio increases diversification benefits.     

Greenwashing Revisited: In Search of a Typology and Accusation‐Based Definition Incorporating Legitimacy Strategies

Is greenwashing a concept describing companies using misleading communication or is it co‐constructed in the eye of the beholder? By discussing the literature, we find that existing definitions of greenwashing overemphasize the strategic intention to mislead and do not incorporate unjust allegations. Then, by combining signaling theory with legitimacy theory, we frame the communication process of the greenwashing accusation and the emergence of a negative narrative caused by the accusation and its effect on legitimacy. Hence, in this paper we argue that greenwashing epistemologically is constituted in the eye of the beholder , depending on an external accusation. Following this view, the greenwashing accusation is understood as a distortion factor altering the signal reliability of green messages. Based on our conceptual analysis, we provide a conceptual framework introducing a new typology of case‐based greenwashing (greenwashing , false greenwashing , potential greenwashing and no greenwashing ) and the effects of these types on corporate legitimacy. Finally, we propose a revised definition of greenwashing as co‐creation of an external accusation toward an organization with regard to presenting a misleading green message. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION FOR LONG‐TERM INVESTORS: PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY AND PRIOR INFORMATION

We study the effect of parameter uncertainty on the long‐run risk for three asset classes: stocks, bills and bonds. Using a Bayesian vector autoregression with an uninformative prior we find that parameter uncertainty raises the annualized long‐run volatilities of all three asset classes proportionally with the same factor relative to volatilities that are conditional on maximum likelihood parameter estimates. As a result, the horizon effect in optimal asset allocations is much weaker compared to models in which only equity returns are subject to parameter uncertainty. Results are sensitive to alternative informative priors, but generally the term structure of risk for stocks and bonds is relatively flat for investment horizons up to 15 years. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A bivariate Poisson count data model using conditional probabilities

The applied econometrics of bivariate count data predominantly focus on a bivariate Poisson density with a correlation structure that is very restrictive. The main limitation is that this bivariate distribution excludes zero and negative correlation. This paper introduces a new model which allows for a more flexible correlation structure. To this end the joint density is decomposed by means of the multiplication rule in marginal and conditional densities. Simulation experiments and an application of the model to recreational data are presented.     

Predictive performance of the World Bank's commodity price projections

The World Bank's commodity price projections are widely used for various planning purposes. Two aspects of the Bank's projections of relative prices are studied in this paper. The first is whether the forecasts make efficient use of the information available at the time the forecast is made. The second is whether the forecasts predict future prices with greater accuracy than alternative forecasting methods. These matters are studied by comparing the World Bank's past price projections with the actual prices that were subsequently observed. The results show that, overall, the World Bank forecasts do not pass either test. First, the World Bank forecasts are informationally inefficient. Prediction error (projection minus actual price) tends to be positively correlated with the projections themselves. Although the direction of future price movements tends to be correctly predicted, the magnitude of these movements tends to be overpredicted. Second, the World Bank forecasts do not perform well even compared with the simplest of alternative forecasting methods - the prediction of no change.     

Forecasting, backcasting, migration landscapes and strategic planning maps

Forecasting and backcasting are both useful techniques for futures strategic planning. However, attempting to integrate these is problematic as the former constrains what the latter can achieve. Here, development of strategic planning maps to mediate this transition is suggested. These are based on the development of migration landscapes that span the gap between projected trends and aspirational futures, highlighting those intermediate events or indicators that will indicate realisation. This allows the determination of intermediate states assuring viability during the transition and the opportunity to respond to changes in the environment. As such, decision makers can better manage risk and so make better informed decisions.