THE SHORT-TERM EFFECT OF DOMESTIC OIL PRICE INCREASES ON THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

The rise in the domestic price of oil products implied by the new import parity pricing policy for domestic crude oil is likely to pose some problems for macroeconomic management. In this paper an attempt has been made to quantify the short-run adjustment problems involved, using the ORANI 78 model of the Australian economy. Results are presented for a range of variables of interest, including macroeconomic variables, industrial and workforce composition and farm incomes. With fixed real wages, farm incomes are projected to decline by between 6 and 8 per cent.     

A micro-econometric analysis of vacation behaviour

We present a micro-econometric limited dependent variable model, which simultaneously explains the decision whether to go on vacation or not, the choice of destination and the decision on the level of the vacation expenditures. The model has been estimated on the basis of a cross-section of Dutch households; we find a striking difference in income elasticity between domestic vacations and vacations abroad, and a large impact of owning certain durables (such as a boat) on the choice of destination. To illustrate the potential of the model, some simulations are performed.     

A monetary submodel for the dutch economy: Some preliminary results

Summary This econometric model is on an annual basis and has been estimated for the period 1953–1969 using the two-stages least-squares method. All behavioral equations are based on a partial adjustment mechanism. The behavior of the public is expressed by the demand for currency, demand deposits and time-and-savings deposits. The behavior of the banking system is described by a required reserves identity and by the demand for excess reserves, borrowed reserves and net foreign assets. The main instruments of monetary policy under the direct control of the central bank are explicitly included in the analysis. Some impact multipliers and elasticities are shown.     

FINANCIAL LEASE ANALYSIS: CONSISTENT AND INCONSISTENT APPROACHES

This paper evaluates lease-purchase analysis methods which assume that leasing provides 100 percent financing and that purchasing involves a mixture of debt and equity finance. Such analyses are being used in Australia particularly in the promotion of leveraged leasing. It is argued that this method is unsound and that analysis of financial leasing should focus on the effects of leasing on the financial risk of the lessee.     

Lean Production and Beyond: the System,Its Critics and the Future

Peter Wickens, who is Director of Personnel and Information Systems of the Nissan Motor Manufacturing (UK) Ltd, puts ‘lean production’ in its historical context, examines some of the criticisms of the system and considers some of the changes taking place in Japan. He goes on to suggest possible ways forward and makes the case for a system of ‘lean production’ managed by people who care about people.