Excessive Volatility is Also a Feature of Individual Level Forecasts

The excessive volatility of prices in financial markets is one of the most pressing puzzles in social science. It has led many to question economic theory, which attributes beneficial effects to markets in the allocation of risks and the aggregation of information. In exploring its causes, we investigated to what extent excessive volatility can be observed at the individual level. Economists claim that securities prices are forecasts of future outcomes. Here, we report on a simple experiment in which participants were rewarded to make the most accurate possible forecast of a canonical financial time series. We discovered excessive volatility in individual-level forecasts, paralleling the finding at the market level. Assuming that participants updated their beliefs based on reinforcement learning, we show that excess volatility emerged because of a combination of three factors. First, we found that submitted forecasts were noisy perturbations of participants’ revealed beliefs. Second, beliefs were updated using a prediction error based on submitted forecast rather than revealed past beliefs. Third, in updating beliefs, participants maladaptively decreased learning speed with prediction risk. Our results reveal formerly undocumented features in individual-level forecasting that may be critical to understand the inherent instability of financial markets and inform regulatory policy.     

Actors, resources, activities and commitments

A new concept, commitments, is introduced and defined as “agreements between two or more social actors to carry out future actions” and its incorporation into, and articulation of, the actors-resources-activities model described. Commitments are distinguished from the concept of commitment as traditionally used in inter-organisational relationships. The latter is mainly an affective measure at the level of an individual concerning the general relationship between buying and selling organisations. By contrast commitments are agreements made between actors and range from the specific and everyday to the general and strategic.The theoretical background and nature of commitments are described and how commitments relate to and enrich each of the elements of the ARA model demonstrated. The application of the concept to B2B relationships at the level of individual, group, organisational and net actors is set out and implications of the use of the commitments concept for researchers and managers are suggested.     

A multivariate analysis of work–life balance outcomes from a large‐scale telework programme

A multivariate analysis identified six predictors to explain positive work–life balance (WLB) among 1,566 teleworkers. Time flexibility variables were found to be most dominant. Gender or having dependent children was not significant. These results demonstrated that controlling working hours was the most important ability for sampled teleworkers to achieve positive WLB.     

Contribution of financial market segments at different stages of development: Transition,cohesion and mature economies compared

What is the impact of financial sector segments at different stages of development? We apply a production function approach to investigate the impact of the credit, bond and stock segments in nine EU-accession countries over early years of transition (1996–2000) and compare these to mature market economies and to countries at intermediate stage. We find that the transfer mechanisms differ over the development cycle (from bond markets to educational attainment to labor participation) and that financial market segments with links to the public sector (but not stock markets) contributed to stability and growth in transition economies.     

Daily income target effects: Evidence from a large sample of professional commodities traders

We provide evidence of rational reference-dependent preferences in the proprietary trading of professional traders. We find increased trading effort and risk taking by traders following morning losses. Further analysis provides no evidence of a deterioration in trading performance subsequent to losses, as neither risk-adjusted performance nor trade execution appear to be negatively affected by prior losses. The evidence supports the existence of rational reference-dependent preferences in the form of trader daily income targets: these professional traders exhibit increased work effort subsequent to abnormal morning losses. The evidence is inconsistent with the alternative explanation of costly loss aversion.     

Assessing information provision and respondent involvement effects on preferences

We develop a test of the effect of information and respondent involvement on preferences for passive-use values using three treatments. Individuals from a rural community participated in one of three groups, each with a different level of involvement in the valuation assessment. The first group was highly involved, attending three meetings which allowed for information acquisition and preference construction. The second group was involved in a single meeting, and the third group was minimally involved through telephone contact and the completion of a mail administered survey. The hypothesis examined was that the degree of involvement in the exercise would affect the magnitude and consistency of preferences across the groups. The hypothesis that the preferences differ was not accepted. Furthermore, the hypothesis that variances in preferences would be higher in less involved groups was also rejected. While the analysis is based on relatively small samples the findings suggest caution in claiming that increasing degrees of respondent involvement improve economic measures of trade-offs.     

State Tax Policy, Labor, and Tax Revenue Feedback Effects

A new computable general equilibrium model is used to predict the effects of tax rate changes on employment and other macrovariables in California. The model is dynamic in accounting for both migration and investment. The relative strength of migration, labor force participation, and investment in causing tax-rate-decrease-induced growth is examined. The model is used to contrast expected effects of a tax rate increase with and without migration and investment.     

Wage and Mobility Effects of Trade and Migration on the Austrian Labour Market

This study analyses the effect of trade and migration on wages and labour marketmobility. We estimate wage growth equations and a multinomial logit mobilityequation on an individual data set ranging from 1991 to 1994. We find substantialdifferences in the reactions of white and blue-collar workers wages and mobilityto trade and migration. In Austria exports have a positive and imports a negativeimpact on wage growth only for blue-collar workers. Migrants also reduce onlyblue-collar workers wage growth. Our results indicate that higher imports and aninflow of migrants reduce sectoral mobility of all types workers. The risk of beingout of work by contrast is increased by migration and imports only for blue-collarworkers, but reduced by exports for all types of workers. In general our results suggestenlargement of the EU would have only small effects on the Austrian labour market.