UNEMPLOYMENT, HYSTERESIS AND TRANSITION

In this paper, we quantify the degree of persistence in the unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. Initially, we work with the concept of linear ‘Hysteresis’ as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment as in most empirical research on this area. Given that this is potentially a narrow definition, we also take into account the existence of structural breaks and nonlinear dynamics in unemployment. Finally, we examine whether CEECs' unemployment presents features of multiple equilibria, that is, if it remains locked into a new level whenever some structural change or sufficiently large shock occurs. Our findings show that, in general, we can reject the unit‐root hypothesis after controlling for structural changes and business‐cycle effects, but we can observe the presence of a high and low unemployment equilibria. The speed of adjustment is faster for CEECs than the EU, although CEECs tend to move more frequently between equilibria.     

The origins of cultural divergence: evidence from Vietnam

Journal of Economic Growth - Cultural norms diverge substantially across societies, often within the same country. We propose and investigate a self-domestication/selective migration hypothesis,...     

Some implications for monetary policy of uncertain exchange rate pass-through

The paper uses MULTIMOD to examine the implications of uncertain exchange rate pass‐through for the conduct of monetary policy. From the policymaker's perspective, uncertainty about exchange rate pass‐through implies uncertainty about policy multipliers and the impact of state variables on stabilization objectives. When faced with uncertainty about the strength of exchange rate pass‐through, policymakers will make less costly errors by overestimating the strength of pass‐through rather than underestimating it. The analysis suggests that pass‐through uncertainty of the magnitude considered does not result in efficient policy response coefficients that are smaller than those under certainty.     

WHAT ACCOUNTS FOR THE DECLINE IN CRIME?*

In this article we analyze recent trends in aggregate property crime rates in the United States. We propose a dynamic equilibrium model that guides our quantitative investigation of the major determinants of observed patterns of crime. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: First, the model is capable of reproducing the drop in crime between 1980 and 1996. Second, the most important factors that account for the observed decline in property crime are the higher apprehension probability, the stronger economy, and the aging of the population. Third, the effect of unemployment on crime is negligible. Fourth, the increased inequality prevented an even larger decline in crime. Overall, our analysis can account for the behavior of the time series of property crime rates over the past quarter century.     

Convergences with Schumpeter: An essay Hirschman has yet to write

The paper explores the contributions of Joseph Schumpeter and Albert Hirschman to our understanding of the dynamics of modern democratic capitalist economies and suggests that much of their respective work displays intellectual overlap and complementarity. It is primarily focused upon the role of economic and political processes as forces of change and adjustment and the necessary degree of built-in inertia required to permit orderly rather than chaotic responses.     

The Austrian School of Economics: A view from London

The Review of Austrian Economics - This paper explores the intellectual context of the Department of Economics at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) during the 1930s. We...     

TESTING FOR MULTIPLE BUBBLES: LIMIT THEORY OF REAL‐TIME DETECTORS

This article provides the limit theory of real‐time dating algorithms for bubble detection that were suggested in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (PWY; International Economic Review 52 [2011], 201–26) and in a companion paper by the present authors (Phillips, Shi, and Yu, 2015; PSY; International Economic Review 56 [2015a], 1099–1134. Bubbles are modeled using mildly explosive bubble episodes that are embedded within longer periods where the data evolve as a stochastic trend, thereby capturing normal market behavior as well as exuberance and collapse. Both the PWY and PSY estimates rely on recursive right‐tailed unit root tests (each with a different recursive algorithm) that may be used in real time to locate the origination and collapse dates of bubbles. Under certain explicit conditions, the moving window detector of PSY is shown to be a consistent dating algorithm even in the presence of multiple bubbles. The other algorithms are consistent detectors for bubbles early in the sample and, under stronger conditions, for subsequent bubbles in some cases. These asymptotic results and accompanying simulations guide the practical implementation of the procedures. They indicate that the PSY moving window detector is more reliable than the PWY strategy, sequential application of the PWY procedure, and the CUSUM procedure.     

Ricardian equivalence and fiscal distortions in the Dominican Republic

This paper tests the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis in the context of the Dominican Republic (DR). The results rejected the Ricardian theorem but a weaker version is shown to have significant implications for the DR. If the government borrows to increase spending, private consumption is crowded out and the economy will suffer in the long run. The outcome is worst if the government borrows to deliver a tax cut. In particular, for every RD$ 1.00 of additional debt incurred to finance government primary spending, private consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) fall by a meaningful RD$ 2.15 and RD$ 1.15 respectively. If the debt is used to finance the tax cut, the fall is RD$ 2.15 in both consumption and output. Interestingly, if the government uses taxes to cover a budget deficit, the effect is neutral and consistent with Ricardian equivalence. The paper argues that fiscal distortions are in part responsible for these multipliers. Distortions are estimated to be 21 % coming from different sources including taxes evasion and fiscal drainage. These findings suggest that the DR could benefit from either reducing the level of fiscal distortions or the size and scope of the Dominican government. If, however, the government continues to pursue an active fiscal role under the current environment, it will generate an unnecessary burden to consumption and economic growth.     

OPTIONAL REAL-TIME PRICING OF ELECTRICITY FOR INDUSTRIAL FIRMS

Abstract. This paper proposes a pricing mechanism, optional real-time pricing (RTP), with day-ahead hourly prices, that exploits the potential offered by a competitive wholesale power market. When an electric utility offers the option to its industrial customers, the retail prices are based on an existing Hopkinson tariff and expectations as to the wholesale market's next-day hourly spot prices. The proposed RTP mechanism is Pareto-superior to the tariff in that it assures both the utility and the customer of profits that will be at least as great as under the tariff.