Real Estate Valuation Models: Lender and Equity Investor Criteria

The use of valuation models that focus on lender criteria has been growing in the appraisal field. In the rush to build lender criteria into real estate valuation models, equity investor criteria, expectations, and requirements occasionally have been ignored. The specific criteria considered in this paper are the loan-to-value ratio and the debt coverage ratio for lenders and the equity dividend rate for equity investors. Each of these three criteria may be a binding constraint on value.
Graphical analysis provides a framework within which major real estate valuation models (i.e., Ellwood, McLaughlin, Gettel, Lusht-Zerbst, and Steele) are compared. A new valuation model (i.e., the Cannaday-Colwell model) is developed which utilizes the equity dividend rate.
The three definitional models (i.e., McLaughlin, Gettel, and Steele) are found to be relevant only by mere coincidence. Each of these models simultaneously considers two of the three key criteria, completely eliminating the possibility of consideration of anything else; i.e., the models become tautological.
It is shown that the discounted cash flow based models (i.e., Ellwood, Lusht-Zerbst, and Cannaday-Colwell) each tell one-third of the story. One of these models will be relevant depending upon whether the binding constraint is the maximum loan-to-value ratio, the minimum debt coverage ratio, or the minimum equity dividend rate. The relevant model is the one that yields the lowest value estimate of the three.     

On Blending Competitive Trade Models

Three standard models typically discussed in the theory of international trade are the Ricardian model, the Heckscher‐Ohlin model and the Specific‐Factors model. Models are often compared with each other, in an attempt to analyze which model is best or fits reality better. Instead, I suggest that these international trade models can often be blended to take account of finite changes when, as a country develops, the appropriate model to be used changes as the pattern of production changes. Trade allows countries to produce fewer commodities than it consumes, and which commodities are selected to be produced may change as the economy grows in the size of its endowment bundle and/or technology changes. At issue is not only the question of which commodities are produced, but also how many commodities are produced, especially with reference to the number of productive factors.     

On a family of data-based transformed models useful in forecasting technological substitutions

This paper examines, via real data, some well known models for technology substitution analysis. We propose a family of data-based transformed models that will include the models under examination as special cases. The basic thrust of the paper is the recognition that for technology substitution analysis, the observations are time series data and hence are not independent. Also, the functional form of the model should be determined by both theoretical considerations as well as the data on hand. This suggests that the traditional ordinary least squares procedure used in estimating the parameters and the resulting forecasting procedures are not adequate. The existing models examined here are Fisher–Pry, Gompertz, Weibull, and Normal. We stress the statistical aspects of the models and their relative merits in terms of predictive power. The criteria used for the purpose of comparison are the mean squared deviation and the mean absolute deviation of the predicted values compared with the actual observations.     

Sick pay provision in experimental labor markets

Sick pay is a common provision in most labor contracts. This paper employs an experimental gift exchange environment to explore two related questions using both managers and undergraduates as subjects. First, do workers reciprocate generous sick pay with higher effort? Second, do firms benefit from offering sick pay? Our main finding is that workers do reciprocate generous sick pay with higher effort. However, firms benefit from offering sick pay in terms of profits only if there is competition among firms for workers. Consequently, competition leads to a higher voluntary provision of sick pay relative to a monopsonistic labor market.     

The Population Dimension in the Intergenerational Reports

The demographic assumptions and outcomes in the three successive Intergenerational Reports have differed enormously. This has brought a degree of derision upon the production of these reports in the serious press. Furthermore, the Intergenerational Reports’ projections of labour force participation rates have proven to be very wrong in the short term. The fourth Intergenerational Report will need to address this credibility gap. This article analyses the reasons that the Intergenerational Reports’ projections have been wide of the mark and makes suggestions about future approaches.     

Estimating the performance effects of business groups in emerging markets

Business groups—confederations of legally independent firms—are ubiquitous in emerging economies, yet very little is known about their effects on the performance of affiliated firms. We conceive of business groups as responses to market failures and high transaction costs. In doing so, we develop hypotheses about the effects of group affiliation on firm profitability: affiliation could either boost or depress firm profitability, and members of a group are likely to earn rates of return similar to other members of the same group. Using a unique data set compiled largely from local sources, we test for these effects in 14 emerging markets: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, India, Indonesia, Israel, Mexico, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey. We find evidence that business groups indeed affect the broad patterns of economic performance in 12 of the markets we examine. Group affiliation appears to have as profound an effect on profitability as does industry membership, yet strategy scholars have a much clearer grasp of industries than of groups. Moreover, membership in a group raises the profitability of the average group member in several of the markets we examine. This runs contrary to the wisdom, conventional in advanced economies, that unrelated diversification depresses profitability. Overall, our findings suggest that the roots of sustained differences in profitability may vary across institutional contexts; conclusions drawn in one context may well not apply to another. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is this the right time to come out? Case study

In this fictional case study, Adam Lawson is a promising young associate at Kirkham McDowell Securities, a St. Louis underwriting and financial advisory firm. Recently, Adam helped to bring in an extremely lucrative deal, and soon he and a few other associates will be honored for their efforts at the firm's silver anniversary dinner. George Campbell, vice president in mergers and acquisitions, is caught unprepared when Adam tells him that, after serious reflection, he has decided to bring his partner, Robert Collins, to the banquet. George is one of Adam's biggest supporters at the firm, and he personally has no problem with Adam being gay. But it is one thing for Adam to come out of the closet at the office. It is quite another to do so at a public company-client event. After all, Kirkham McDowell's client roster includes some very conservative companies--one of the country's largest defense contractors, for example. George is concerned with how Adam's openness about his sexual orientation will play with their clients and, as a result, how senior management will react. Adam has not come to George for permission to bring Robert to the dinner. But clearly Adam wants some sort of response. George has never faced sexual diversity issues in the workplace before, and there is no company policy to guide him. Just how negative an effect could Robert have on Adam's career with the firm and the firm's relationship with its clients? Isn't it possible that even the firm's most conservative clients will simply decide that Adam's choice of guest is a personal matter--not a business one?(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

NORTH–SOUTH TRADE WITH MULTINATIONAL FIRMS AND INCREASING PRODUCT VARIETY*

We present a model of North–South trade with multinational firms and increasing product variety. Firms engage in innovative R&D to develop new product varieties in the North, and foreign affiliates of multinational firms engage in adaptive R&D to learn how to produce product varieties in the South. We find that a shift to stronger protection of intellectual property rights in the South induces foreign affiliates of multinational firms to increase their R&D expenditures, results in a faster rate of technology transfer within multinational firms, and increases long‐run consumer welfare in both regions.