A way out of the credibility crisis of models used in integrated environmental assessment

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have been widely used in environmental policy making because they simulate natural and socio-economic systems by integrating knowledge derived from a wide range of disciplines. The current IAMs have been found to be limited due to their inability to display both the value-laden nature of the assumptions that underlie the model and the uncertainties in their outputs. A Post-Normal Science approach is required for dealing with these issues, involving participation of ‘extended peer communities’ providing their ‘extended facts’.     

Aspekte einer Neugestaltung des Rechtes der Versicherungsvermittlung

The current fundamental reform of the German insurance law cannot and will not stop short of the law of insurance mediation. Up to now Sec. 43 to 48 Versicherungsvertragsgesetz (VVG = German Insurance Act) govern only one type of insurance intermediary known as insurance agent. The act only sets up rules to which extent the insurance agent has authority to bind the insurer. In the way the law is construed by the courts it differs in many aspects from the written law. Thus it is suggested to define the generic term ?insurance intermediary“ in the act as well as the subcategories ?insurance broker“ and ?insurance agent“, whereby the term ?insurance agent“ also includes the field staff employed by an insurer. In connection with the diffi-cult distinction between insurance brokers and insurance agents it remains questionable on which type of intermediary the rules regulating the relationship between agents and insurants and thereby protecting the potential customers should be applied accordingly. This controversial and in practice significant question should be explicitly decided by the legislator for reasons of legal certainty. In so far Sec. 43a of the Austrian Insurance Act could act as a model function. Regarding the insurance agents’ authority to receive (Empfangsvertretungsmacht des Versicherungsvertreters) for the insurer propositions exist to explicitly declare Sec. 43 No.l VVG, which grants the agent the authority to receive when accepting a contractual offer for the insurer, as mandatory. This suggestion would be in accordance with the current case law. Furthermore the wording of Sec. 43 No.l VVG should be altered so that the insurants’ pre-contractual risk-notifications, which the prevailing opinion already regards as being included, is explicitly mentioned. In principle Sec. 43 No.2 WG, which grants the agent the authority to receive notifications and representations for the duration of the insurance contract, should be declared as mandatory, too. Exempted should be the authority to receive for dispositions regarding the entitlements to benefits from (life) insurance contracts and the right to receive the insured sum. Sec. 44 WG, which strongly restricts the attribution of the agent’s knowledge to the insurer, is unconvincing, especially from a legal policy point of view. Therefore it is to be cancelled without substitution. Finally the legislator should refrain from codifying the customary liability based on the principles of reliance.     

The Informational Role of Stock and Option Volume

This article analyzes the intraday interdependence of orderflows and price movements for actively traded NYSE stocks andtheir Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)-traded options.Stock net trade volume (buyer-initiated volume minus seller-initiatedvolume) has strong predictive ability for stock and option quoterevisions, but option net trade volume has no incremental predictiveability. This suggests that informed investors initiate tradesin the stock market but not in the option market. On the otherhand, both stock and option quote revisions have predictiveability for each other. Thus, while information in the stockmarket is contained in both quote revisions and trades, informationin the option market is contained only in quote revisions.     

Earnings management and initial public offerings: Evidence from the Netherlands

This paper presents one of the first studies of earnings management by initial public offering (IPO) firms in a European country. Using a sample of 64 Dutch IPOs, we investigate the pattern of discretionary current accruals (DCA) over time. We find that managers manage their company's earnings in the first year as a public company but not in the years before the IPO. We also examine the impact of earnings management on the long-run stock price performance of IPOs. We find a negative relation between the size of the DCA in the first year as a public company and long-run stock price performance over the next 3 years. A number of additional tests support these findings.     

区域电力市场的十大障碍及其对策

中国迄今已经在电力改革方面取得了很大进展.目前所处的行业重组阶段,旨在为建立竞争性电力市场奠定必要的基础.尽管最初的省级电力市场试点为提高行业的经济和技术水平创造了条件,但建立区域电力市场以优化资源配置和提高效率的潜力显然更大.但是,建立区域电力市场的难度远大于建立省级电力市场.本文讨论在中国建立区域电力市场的障碍因素及其可以采取的应对措施.     

Hedging in the Possible Presence of Unspanned Stochastic Volatility: Evidence from Swaption Markets

This paper examines whether higher order multifactor models, with state variables linked solely to underlying LIBOR‐swap rates, are by themselves capable of explaining and hedging interest rate derivatives, or whether models explicitly exhibiting features such as unspanned stochastic volatility are necessary. Our research shows that swaptions and even swaption straddles can be well hedged with LIBOR bonds alone. We examine the potential benefits of looking outside the LIBOR market for factors that might impact swaption prices without impacting swap rates, and find them to be minor, indicating that the swaption market is well integrated with the LIBOR‐swap market.     

The Global Determinants of Direct Office Real Estate Returns

We investigate the determinants of direct office real estate returns by analyzing rents, capital appraisals, and total returns. A recently compiled global database of major cities in Asia, Europe, and the United States provides a unique opportunity to give a macro-view on the effects of economic growth and supply and demand factors on nominal real estate returns. The global database provides quarterly observations from 1986 to 1999. To address the smoothness problem of appraisal-based price data and regulated rents, we employ the Generalized Method of Moments to estimate a dynamic panel-data model. The model allows us to combine the cross-sectional and time-series dimension in our quarterly data. We find that gross domestic product, inflation, unemployment, vacancy rate, and the available stock all have an effect on real estate returns.