International tourism: Coming or going: The methodological problems of forecasting

Acceptable forecasts that indicate the size, direction and characteristics of future international tourist flows are now required by many and various organisations. However the selection of forecasting methodology depends upon the statistical data available and the type of result required. A world international tourism model is described which indicates the potential of applying more sophisticated techniques than econometric methods such as linear programming and simulation.     

Ringing the changes? Union recognition and organisation in call centres in the UK finance sector

The massive rise in UK call centre employment in recent years has been closely related to developments in the finance sector. This paper analyses these developments in order to contextualise the organisational experiences of unions in the sector. Recruitment activity in both hostile and compliant employer environments, and findings from the first national survey of call centre employees’ attitudes towards trade unionism, are discussed, and the prospects for union recruitment and organisation are assessed.     

Regulatory reform in telecommunications in Central and Eastern Europe

In this paper we discuss public policy towards the telecommunications sector in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), focusing primarily on the need to ensure adequate capital investment. The analysis falls into two main parts: the regulation of monopoly, and policy on liberalization. Concerning regulation, we discuss how policy credibility is likely to be a problem in the region, and how reputational considerations, the design of regulatory institutions, and methods of price control can help to ameliorate this problem. Concerning liberalization, we consider the effects of potential competition on investment incentives, and construct a simple model to analyse the different effects of liberalization and regulatory risk on investment. Some preliminary policy conclusions are drawn, and we argue that in the CEE region – in contrast to more well developed countries – a reasonable case can be made for allowing a temporary period of monopoly for basic services.     

AN OPTIMAL-CONTROL APPROACH TO STABILISING AUSTRALIAN WOOL PRICES*

In this paper, some aspects of the application of optimal-control techniques to wool industry price stabilisation are considered. It is not intended to provide a blueprint for the immediate adoption of optimal-control techniques in the management of wool price stablisation. Rather, the contribution is to the developmental and evaluative process involved in considering these techniques. A new econometric model of wool price and supply is also presented, since none of the existing models satisfied the requirements of the study.     

Wages Councils,retail distribution and the concept of the “cut-off”

If proposed amendments to the Industrial Relations Bill remove protection afforded to some groups of workers by the Wages Councils system, an alternative will have to be found. In retail distribution a case can be made out for operating a bipartite system with voluntary negotiation above, and statutory wage protection below, a “cut-off” point determined on the basis of turnover.     

Consumer brand confusion: A conceptual framework

A definition and theoretical framework for consumer brand confusion are developed. Brand confusion is distinguished from related terms, such as uncertainty, miscomprehension, infringement, and deception. The factors affecting the likelihood of brand confusion are extended beyond stimulus similarity to include individual and situational factors, and propositions regarding the effects of individual and situational factors are developed. The value of a better understanding of consumer brand confusion to managers and policy makers is discussed.     

Strategy,Structure and Control In the Changing Corporation: A Survey-Based Investigation

Paul Marginson, Paul Edwards, Peter Armstrong and John Purcell draw on the findings of IRRU's Company Level Industrial Relations Survey to investigate the business structure, budgetary control systems and strategic orientations of large companies in the UK. Companies’ internal structure, and their systems of budgetary control, are shown to be associated with the kind of diversification strategy they are pursuing. Both external change, such as acquisition, and organic change are widespread across all types of firm as is the consequent internal reorganisation. They discuss the implications of the different strategic orientations and structural arrangements, and the rapidity of organisational change, for human resource policy. Paul Marginson and Paul Edwards are respectively Senior Lecturer and Professor of Industrial Relations at the Warwick Business School and Associate Fellow and Deputy Director of its Industrial Relations Research Unit; Peter Armstrong is Senior Lecturer in the Management School at the University of Sheffield; and John Purcell is University Lecturer in Management Studies and Fellow of Templeton College, Oxford.     

Venture-backed Private Equity Valuation and Financial Statement Information

The relationship between (a) private and public equity market valuations and (b) financial statement information is examined for a sample of 502 venture capital backed companies from six different industries over the 1993–2003 period. Financial statement information explains a sizable component of the levels of and changes in valuation in both the Pre-IPO and Post-IPO periods. The findings support prior research for Post-IPO companies that revenues are value enhancing and costs are value diminishing. For the Pre-IPO period, we find that cost of sales; sales, marketing, general and administrative; and research and development are value enhancing—even when revenues are included in the analysis. This is consistent with costs incurred by early-stage, venture-backed companies having a strong “investment aspect” as the companies build a platform/infrastructure to grow revenue and validate their business model(s). We document the growth of early stage companies for revenues and costs in both calendar time (by round of private equity financing) and event time (relative to their eventual IPO).

Response to price and production risk: The case of Australian wheat

A model of Australian wheat grower supply response was specified under the constrainsts of price and yield uncertainty, risk aversion, partial adjustment, and quadratic costs. The model was solved to obtain area planted. The results of estimation indicate that risk arising from prices and climate have had a significant influence on producer decision making. The coefficient of relative risk aversion and short‐run and long‐run elasticities of supply with respect to price were calculated. Wheat growers' risk premium, expected at the start of the season for exposed price and yield risk, was 2.8 percent of revenue or 10.4 percent of profit as measured by producer surplus. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20: 345–359, 2000.