Cointegration Analysis of Seasonal Time Series

This paper reviews various recent approaches to cointegration analysis of seasonal time series. In addition to the usual decisions concerning data transformations and univariate time series properties, it is necessary to decide how seasonal variation is included in the multivariate model and how standard cointegration methods should accordingly be modified. Seasonal cointegration and periodic cointegration methods are discussed, as are some of their recent refinements. An overview of further research topics is also provided.     

Effects of agency risks and procedural justice on board processes in venture capital-backed firms

This paper builds a model of the effects of agency risk and procedural justice in the boards of directors of venture capital-backed firms. Such boards are unique in that they consist of managers and outside owners with significant power and incentive to be highly involved in venture governance. The authors integrate agency theory and procedural justice perspectives to develop propositions regarding the effects of agency risk and board processes on the responses to poor performance and conflicts of interest. This integrated perspective suggests that factors that increase perceived agency risks will increase outsiders' tendency to focus efforts on monitoring and controlling board decisions and their propensity to resort to formal means to resolve conflicts. However, the authors suggest that through their effects on trust and positive attributions, fair procedures and interactions will reduce these tendencies. A discussion of the practical and theoretical implications of the proposed model concludes the paper.     

Alternative work arrangements and perceived career success: Current evidence from the big four firms in the US

This study examines the influences of alternative work arrangements (AWAs), subordinate gender, and supervisor attitudes and beliefs regarding AWAs on performance evaluation judgments in public accounting. One hundred and forty-two experienced professionals from two US Big Four firms evaluated a hypothetical subordinate’s performance in an experimental setting. Results indicated that subordinate gender and AWA participation were significantly related to supervisors’ perceptions of the subordinate’s career success. We also found that individual differences in supervisors’ attitudes and beliefs regarding AWAs were systematically related to their performance evaluation judgments, and indicate that cultural support for AWAs is not uniform among experienced Big Four professionals. Further, the association between these attitudes and beliefs and performance evaluation judgments are consistent with an organizational justice interpretation of AWA use. Implications of these results for the Big Four’s work-life balance initiatives in the US are discussed.     

Basket trading under co-integration with the logistic mixture autoregressive model

In this paper, we propose a co-integration model with a logistic mixture auto-regressive equilibrium error (co-integrated LMAR), in which the equilibrium relationship among cumulative returns of different financial assets is modelled by a logistic mixture autoregressive time series model. The traditional autoregression (AR) based unit root test (ADF test), used in testing co-integration, cannot give a sound explanation when a time series passes the ADF test. However, its largest root in the AR polynomial is extremely close to, but less than, one, which is most likely the result of a mixture of random-walk and mean-reverting processes in the time series data. With this background, we put an LMAR model into the co-integration framework to identify baskets that have a large spread but are still well co-integrated. A sufficient condition for the stationarity of the LMAR model is given and proved using a Markovian approach. A two-step estimating procedure, combining least-squares estimation and the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, is given. The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is used in model selection. The co-integrated LMAR model is applied to basket trading, which is a widely used tool for arbitrage. We use simulation to assess the model in basket trading strategies with the statistical arbitrage feature in equity markets. Data from several sectors of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index are used in a simulation study on basket trading. Empirical results show that a portfolio using the co-integrated LMAR model has a higher return than portfolios selected by traditional methods. Although the volatility in the return increases, the Sharpe ratio also increases in most cases. This risk–return profile can be explained by the shorter converging period in the co-integrated LMAR model and the larger volatility in the ‘mean-reverting’ regime.     

Earnings and Equity Valuation in the Biotech Industry: Theory and Evidence

We examine how the price-earnings relation varies with the uncertainty about and the quality of a firm's investments. We develop a real option valuation framework to capture investment and abandonment options in the research-intensive biotechnology industry. We hypothesize that the price-earnings relation will be V-shaped and change over the firm 's life cycle. We also show how nonfinancial information affects the pricing of earnings. Our empirical findings are based on a sample of 301 biotechnology firms that made IPOs between 1980 and 2000, and are generally consistent with our predictions.     

Decomposition of progressivity and inequality indices: Inferences from the US federal income tax system

Vertical equity is an important criterion in evaluating a tax system. Vertical equity has two elements: progressivity and income equality. In this paper, we analyze the vertical equity effects of the US income tax system during 1995–2006 and show that income inequality increased substantially during the period combined with a significant reduction in real progressivity.     

Signing trades and an evaluation of the Lee–Ready algorithm

We use techniques developed to analyze the Supply Curve in liquidity models in order to analyze the accuracy of the Lee and Ready algorithm, both for highly liquid and relatively liquid stocks. Through the use of order book data combined with tick data, we are actually (somewhat tediously) able to tell whether or not a given trade is buyer or seller initiated. For those trades where such knowledge is certain, the accuracy of the Lee and Ready algorithm is not as accurate as has been assumed previously. We can essentially prove that the Lee and Ready algorithm is always at least 55% accurate, and is around 61% accurate for highly liquid stocks (i.e., the top 50 of the S&P 100).     

What drives the disappearing dividends phenomenon?

We study the determinants of dividend payout policy and examine the role of liquidity, risk and catering in explaining the changes in propensity to pay. Our results indicate that risk plays a major role in firms’ dividend policy. The evidence substantiates from a large sample of firms representing 18 countries over the sample period from 1989 to 2011. For firms in the US, France, UK and Other European markets, liquidity is additionally an important determinant of dividend policy. We find that, although catering incentives persist only among firms in common law countries and not in civil law countries, after adjusting for risk there is little support for catering theory even among firms incorporated in common law countries. Our results indicate that catering incentives reflect the risk-reward relationship in the changing propensity to pay dividends.     

Bank mergers and acquisitions in emerging markets: evidence from Asia and Latin America

Following a global wave of consolidation in the banking industry, this study analyses 132 mergers and acquisitions (M&As) involving banks in emerging markets in Asia and Latin America between 1998 and 2009. An event study measures the change in shareholder value for acquirers and targets; and a multivariate regression identifies the drivers of the change in shareholder value for acquirers. On average M&As create shareholder value for target firms, while acquirer firms do not lose shareholder value. Geographical diversification creates shareholder value for acquirers. Acquirer shareholders benefit from the acquisition of underperforming targets; from transactions settled by cash rather than exchange of equity; and from government-instigated M&A transactions.     

Risk-neutral compatibility with option prices

A common problem is to choose a “risk-neutral” measure in an incomplete market in asset pricing models. We show in this paper that in some circumstances it is possible to choose a unique “equivalent local martingale measure” by completing the market with option prices. We do this by modeling the behavior of the stock price X, together with the behavior of the option prices for a relevant family of options which are (or can theoretically be) effectively traded. In doing so, we need to ensure a kind of “compatibility” between X and the prices of our options, and this poses some significant mathematical difficulties.