Twenty-year review of South African fiscal policy: A tale of two sustainabilities

In 2014 democracy in South Africa was 20 years old. The democratic government in 1994 inherited both a high and increasing public debt/gross domestic product ratio and significant development backlogs. The government had to establish fiscal sustainability, yet also pursue development in a sustainable way. This article explores the government's performance in reconciling fiscal sustainability with sustainable development. The article shows that fiscal policy has been sustainable over the 20 years, with some risks appearing towards the end, and that the government pursued sustainable development through reallocating resources within the budget and by spending more in real terms. Three phases can be identified: 1994–2000, 2001–08 and 2009–13. However, poor service delivery and low levels of government investment during the 20 years threaten to undermine economic growth. Lower growth consequently threatens the sustainability of both fiscal policy and development, which, in turn, again undermines growth prospects. Hence, the article also identifies key future challenges.     

Covid-19, Economic Growth and South African Fiscal Policy

Following years of fast-rising debt levels, we show that the Covid-19 crisis worsened an already deteriorating fiscal position in South Africa. To restore fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the crisis some commentators argue that higher government expenditure will grow GDP sufficiently to stabilise the debt/GDP ratio. We reject this, showing that although a real increase in expenditure stimulates economic growth (a short-run, once-off effect), the public expenditure/GDP ratio exceeds the level at which an increase in the ratio positively impacts growth. We then explore the past efforts of government to maintain or restore fiscal sustainability by estimating a fiscal reaction function using a Markov-switching model. Following the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the budget, we subsequently establish the deficit, expenditure and revenue adjustments that the government will have to make to restore fiscal sustainability. Finally, we consider the merits of introducing a debt ceiling.     

Vertical integration versus vertical separation: An equilibrium model

In this paper, the role of strategic forces in vertical relationships is examined. Using a simple model of differentiated products with symmetric demands and costs, the Perfect equilibrium to a vertical integration-vertical separation game between manufacturers is determined. Given the assumptions of the model, I show that the manufacturer's decision whether to vertically integrate or to remain separate from its retailer depends on the degree of product differentiation. I show that when the products are poor substitutes, the only Perfect equilibrium is vertical integration by both manufacturers. As the products become closer substitutes, an additional Perfect equilibrium appears, both firms vertically separated. For manufacturers, the vertically separated equilibrium always Pareto dominates the vertical integration equilibrium when both equilibria exist.This paper is a revision of Chapter 4 of my Ph.D. dissertation. I wish to thank my Senior Supervisor, Professor Thomas W. Ross, for his many helpful comments. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Canadian Economic Association meetings in Kingston, June 1991. Helpful comments and suggestions were also received from Keith Acheson, Leigh Anderson, Jeffrey Church, Chantale Lacasse, Frank Mathewson, and Don McFetridge and two anonymous referees. I am responsible for any errors or omissions.     

Long COVID? Prospects for economic scarring from the pandemic

This paper examines the potential persistent effects (scarring) of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. Our findings from a broad set of historical recessions confirm that recessions are associated with persistent output losses and that the greatest scarring has occurred following financial crises. The amount of scarring following pandemic and epidemic recessions in the sample is in between that of typical recessions and financial crises. Results on the channels show that the productivity channel is important, as all types of recessions have been followed by persistent losses to total factor productivity.     

Bayesian estimation of an extended local scale stochastic volatility model

A new version of the local scale model of Shephard (1994) is presented. Its features are identically distributed evolution equation disturbances, the incorporation of in-the-mean effects, and the incorporation of variance regressors. A Bayesian posterior simulator and a new simulation smoother are presented. The model is applied to publicly available daily exchange rate and asset return series, and is compared with t-GARCH and Lognormal stochastic volatility formulations using Bayes factors.     

Education and growth with endogenous debt constraints

When future human capital cannot be alienated, households are allowed to borrow up to the point where it is in their own interest not to default. In such a framework, endogenous borrowing limits arise as the outcome of individual rationality constraint. In a model where education is the engine of growth, we show that endogenous borrowing constraints imply global indeterminacy. Comparing outcomes across the various equilibria we show that the relation between growth and yields is hump-shaped. Maximum growth can arise in an equilibrium with binding borrowing constraints, specially if the elasticity of human capital to education spending is large. Deepening financial markets promotes long-run growth in the case of a poverty trap, but not necessarily otherwise. On the methodological side, our approach stresses the importance of studying borrowing limits in general equilibrium, not only in small open economies. Philippe Michel passed away on July 22, 2004. His death is a great loss for his friends and for the overlapping generations and optimal control community.     

Growth, distance to frontier and composition of human capital

We examine the contribution of human capital to economy-wide technological improvements through the two channels of innovation and imitation. We develop a theoretical model showing that skilled labor has a higher growth-enhancing effect closer to the technological frontier under the reasonable assumption that innovation is a relatively more skill-intensive activity than imitation. Also, we provide evidence in favor of this prediction using a panel dataset covering 19 OECD countries between 1960 and 2000 and explain why previous empirical research had found no positive relationship between initial schooling level and subsequent growth in rich countries.     

Financial market integration: Theory and empirical results

In this article, we introduce a new theoretical international asset pricing model which accounts for partial financial market segmentation. We show that if some investors do not hold all international assets because of implicit and/or explicit segmentation factors, the world market portfolio is not efficient and the classic ICAPM must be augmented by a new factor reflecting the local risk undiversifiable internationally. We test this model empirically for a sample of emerging markets. Our findings show that the degree of market integration is time-varying and that the premium associated with the domestic risk factors is the most important component of the total risk premium. However, our results also show that most of the emerging markets we study have become more integrated in the end of our sample period as a result of liberalization and reforms.     

Marketing in medium-sized manufacturing firms: The state-of-the-art in France and in Quebec

An examination of the relationship between marketing and SMEs raises two kinds of questions: the first relates to the categories of SMEs studied, and it goes without saying that their responses will depend on their size (very small, small, and medium); the second depends on the elements likely or not to bring out a marketing approach. In fact, we can infer a large part of this approach from the answers having to do with segmentation practices, positioning, and information research. These three practices constitute the foundation of this approach. For all that, to ask questions directly (especially with regard to segmentation) would lead to biased responses. Taking these premises into account and with understanding of marketing behaviour in the medium-sized firms as an objective, we conducted two surveys in two locations, France and Québec (Canada), in which only enterprises with 50 to 250 employees were retained. The results show that if the marketing approach of the medium-sized firms is always focused on client distinction (more than on the market as such), competition leading to positioning is very much a part of their preoccupations; finally, these enterprises commonly practice commercial intelligence. This implies structuring commercial activity in general and marketing in particular, the two not always well delimited. These last two traits differentiate them from the other categories of SMEs, the very small enterprises (VSEs) and the small enterprises (SEs).