Peer Group Formation in an Adverse Selection Model

This paper develops an adverse selection model where peer group systems are shown to trigger lower interest rates and remove credit rationing in the case where borrowers are uninformed about their potential partners and ex post state verification (or auditing) by banks is costly. Peer group formation reduces interest rates due to a 'collateral effect', namely, cross subsidisation amongst borrowers acts as collateral behind a loan. By uncovering such a collateral effect, this paper shows that peer group systems can be viewed as an effective risk pooling mechanism, and thus enhance efficiency, not just in the full information set up.     

Research and development in the growth process

This paper introduces into Schumpeterian growth theory an important element of heterogeneity in the structure of innovative activity—namely, the distinction between research and development. We construct a simple model of growth to investigate how the (steady-state) rate of growth affects and is affected by the relative mix between research and development. Although we assume for simplicity that the total supply of innovative activity is given it turns out that, with one important exception, the growth rate responds to most parameter changes in the same way as in previous models where growth was determined by the total amount of innovative activity. In particular, the level of research tends to covary positively with the rate of growth, even in the extreme case where the general knowledge that underlies long-run growth is created only by secondary innovations arising from the development process. The exception concerns the effects of competition on growth. Although simpler Schumpeterian growth models implied that increased competition would reduce growth by reducing the incentive to innovate, introducing the distinction between research and development implies that this effect is likely to be reversed.     

Financial development and the instability of open economies

This paper introduces a framework for analyzing the role of financial factors as a source of instability in small open economies. Our basic model is a dynamic open economy model with a tradeable good produced with capital and a country-specific factor. We also assume that firms face credit constraints, with the constraint being tighter at a lower level of financial development. A basic implication of this model is that economies at an intermediate level of financial development are more unstable than either very developed or very underdeveloped economies. This is true both in the sense that temporary shocks have large and persistent effects and also in the sense that these economies can exhibit cycles. Thus, countries that are going through a phase of financial development may become more unstable in the short run. Similarly, full capital account liberalization may destabilize the economy in economies at an intermediate level of financial development: phases of growth with capital inflows are followed by collapse with capital outflows. On the other hand, foreign direct investment does not destabilize.     

On privatization methods in Eastern Europe and their implications1

We have two goals in this paper. The first is to draw lessons from the privatization experiences in Eastern Europe so far, in particular with respect to the relation between alternative privatization methods, the evolution of ownership after privatization and restructuring. The second is to draw from these lessons to suggest ways in which remaining privatization programmes might be designed or improved, when political constraints and economic realities are taken into account.     

Testing creative destruction in an opening economy

This paper analyses the relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth using a Schumpeterian framework of technological innovation and applies it to sector‐level South African data. The framework examines direct and indirect effects of trade liberalization on productivity growth. Indirect impacts operate through a differential impact of trade liberalization on firms conditional on their distance from the international technological frontier. Results confirm positive direct impacts of trade liberalization. Results confirm also that the greatest positive impact of trade liberalization will be on sectors that are close to the international technological frontier and that experienced a low level of product market competition before liberalization.     

General Purpose Technology and Wage Inequality

The recent changes in the US wage structure are often linked to the new wave of capital-embodied information technologies. The existing literature has emphasized either the accelerated pace or the skill-bias of embodied technical progress as the driving force behind the rise in wage inequality. A key, neglected, aspect is the general purpose nature of the new information technologies. This paper formalizes the idea of generality of technology in two ways, one related to human capital (skill transferability) and one to physical capital (vintage compatibility) and studies the impact of an increase in these two dimensions of technological generality on equilibrium wage inequality.     

Microfinance Beyond Group Lending

Microlending is growing in Eastern Europe, Russia and China as a flexible means of widening access to financial services, both to help alleviate poverty and to encourage private-sector activity. We describe mechanisms that allow these programmes to successfully penetrate new segments of credit markets. These features include direct monitoring, regular repayment schedules, and the use of non-refinancing threats. These mechanisms allow the programmes to generate high repayment rates from low-income borrowers without requiring collateral and without using group lending contracts that feature joint liability.     

On the dynamics of inequality in the transition

Inequality has increased in many of the transition economies. At the same time, spending on education has declined. In this paper we survey the factors driving these changes. We then set up a small general equilibrium model to simulate the effect of different policy choices on the path of inequality over the transition. We show that the policies selected in Central Europe engender a relatively rapid spike in inequality but with a Kuznets curve. In the simulations that broadly capture features of the policy regime dominating in Russia and the FSU, we find no Kuznets curve. We then turn to the longer run and look at the way in which both trade liberalization and technological and organizational change are likely to affect the relative demand for types of labour. We show how substantial technological and organizational change - obvious features of transition - can result in raising inequality. Persistence in inequality can be expected to depend critically on the pace at which the acquisition of skills takes place in the economy - and, hence, on the evolution of the educational system. As such, policies aimed at raising adaptability - such as quality educational systems - can be expected to dampen the increase in wage inequality.