Maynard Keynes: An Economist's Biography

D. E. Moggridge's perhaps too exhaustive biography is examined and some questions are raised relative to Keynes'views on theory and their source, and his views on German reparations and whether Britain should have accepted the original provisions of the agreement providing for establishment of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.     

Spatial co-localisation of firms and entrepreneurial dynamics

In this conceptual paper, I propose an interpretation of business dynamics in terms of the spatial co-localisation of firms—considered as an intelligent cognitive system—in a circumscribed area in order to form clusters of various types. I interpret clustering by adopting the methodology of multi-agent combinatory systems: that is, systems formed by collectivities of agents (firms) in which an internal feedback recombines the micro behaviours of the agents (localisation) in order to produce a macro effect (cluster) which, in turn, modifies the attractiveness of the area and conditions the subsequent localisations. I also present the idea that if a cluster has fitness advantages for new firms, then usually new entrepreneurs are formed within it and the cluster widens, due to the endogenous genesis of new firms.     

Endogenous fluctuations,markups, capacity and credit constraints

In the present paper endogenous fluctuations have been generated by referring to endogenous markups, variable capacity utilization, and credit constraints. As one can detect, they are the same ingredients as those used to generate the so called selffulfilling cycles. With respect to this strand of literature, three changes are introduced. First of all, credit constraints are conceived within the Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis. Secondly, markups may have different dynamic patterns and impacts. Finally, heterogeneous agents are assumed to form evolutionary expectations. The results of these interacting aggregate demand and supply aspects are endogenous fluctuations obtained by means of simulations. Robust limit cycles and interesting comovements between variables are achieved in this medium-run model.     

The sector bias of skill-biased technical change and the rising skill premium in transition economies

We test the hypothesis that the sector bias of skill biased technical change is important in explaining the rising relative wage of skilled workers in the manufacturing sector in three Central and Eastern European transition countries. The econometric results broadly confirm that the concentration of skill biased technical change in the skill intensive sectors had a significant effect on the skill premium in these transition countries.

Uncertainty and Learning in Stochastic Macro Models

Limits on information have deep economic impact and affect the conduct of economic policy. In the present paper we explore the effect of substantive uncertainty in a macro model, from both an analytical and methodological point of view. Agents are boundedly rational and make their forecasts according to different techniques and try to learn the values of the various parameters. In this context, a Markov regime switching rule, a VAR system, and recursive least square are considered and compared. As a result, we obtain a model which is mostly keynesian in nature that can be compared with the new neoclassical synthesis models. Simulations are carried out and show the possible appearence of endogenous and persistent fluctuations.     

SCALE ECONOMIES AND HETEROGENEITY IN BUSINESS MONEY DEMAND: THE ITALIAN EXPERIENCE

This paper investigates the demand for money by firms and the existence of economies of scale in the Italian manufacturing industry. We estimate a model for cash elaborated by Fujiki and Mulligan using a different estimation procedure from the previous literature. We then introduce an iterative procedure based on backward exclusion of firms from model estimation which points out the high heterogeneity of Italian companies in money demand. Our estimates show that the Italian manufacturing industry, considered as a whole, does not enjoy scale economies in money demand. However, our iterative procedure points out that the cause of this result has to be ascribed to small firms which are characterized by thin cash money holdings and a consequent very modest opportunity cost.     

Growth,unemployment and heterogeneity

The paper analyzes unemployment in a medium-run growth model, where aggregate demand and supply interact, using a top-down approach. The aim of the essay is the study of a nonlinear system where both aggregate demand and supply are endogenous and generate bounded unemployment, followed by a methodological effort direct to identify possible lines of convergence with the agent based models (ABM) approach. This is a by-product of the presence of heterogeneity in the model. Heterogeneity acts through two different channels and operates among class of agents: it comes into the aggregate consumption function where households are assumed employed or unemployed; it changes the learning process of pessimists and optimists. The analysis is carried on through simulations. The resulting system is fairly stable to changes in main structural parameters. On one hand, autonomous demand drives the dynamics of the system, while heterogeneity in the consumption function, due to the presence of unemployment, strengthens the links with supply aspects. On the other hand, both the rate of growth of labor productivity and labor supply are endogenous. Two major results are obtained. First, unemployment allows the so called Harrodian reconciliation between aggregate demand and supply. Second, unemployment remains bounded meaning that the interaction between aggregate demand and supply thwarts instability. These results are in keeping with those obtained by means of a bottom-up approach, typical of ABM. Possible explanations and implications of this convergence are put forward and open the venue to further deepening of complementarities among the two modeling strategies.

     

High-frequency trading: a literature review

The relatively recent phenomenon of high-frequency trading has had a profound impact on the micro-structure of financial markets. Several authors hailed it as a provider of liquidity and a mechanism for controlling volatility, two highly welcome features, especially beneficial to retail traders, whereas other authors view the situation generated by algorithmic trading as damaging for both small and institutional traders, and the orderly functioning of the markets. This paper analyzes the impact of high-frequency trading in respect of the main parameters affecting market quality: volatility, transaction costs, liquidity, price discovery, penalization of slower traders, and impact on sudden financial crises, the notorious flash crashes. As often happens within the financial community, different views stand to each other and no conclusive agreement on the value of most parameters has been reached as yet. A section on the apparently falling profits of high-frequency traders, as denounced in recent times, completes the review.

     

The Structure of Sunspot Equilibria: The Role of Multiplicity

This paper examines the structure of sunspot equilibria in a standard two period exchange economy with real assets. We show that for a generic choice of utility functions and endowments, there exists an open set of real asset structures whose payoffs are independent of sunspots such that the economy with this asset structure has a regular sunspot equilibrium. An important implication of our result is that the multiplicity of non-sunspot equilibria is not necessary for the existence of sunspot equilibria. Our technique is general and can be applied to show the existence of sunspot equilibria in other frameworks.     

IS LABOUR MARKET FLEXIBILITY DESIRABLE OR HARMFUL? A FURTHER DYNAMIC PERSPECTIVE

A common belief of mainstream economics as well as underpinning government policy is that the more flexible real wage is, the lower is unemployment. In this paper we study the dynamics of a standard neoclassical labour market under the simplest Walrasian adjustment rule. We show that when consumption and leisure are sufficiently low substitutes, an increase in real wage flexibility may destabilize the unique Walrasian equilibrium of the economy, triggering fluctuations in wages and employment. Minimal departures from strict (Walrasian) neoclassical equilibrium modelling are required to obtain instability results for wage flexibility.