A unified approach to systemic risk measures via acceptance sets

We specify a general methodological framework for systemic risk measures via multidimensional acceptance sets and aggregation functions. Existing systemic risk measures can usually be interpreted as the minimal amount of cash needed to secure the system after aggregating individual risks. In contrast, our approach also includes systemic risk measures that can be interpreted as the minimal amount of cash that secures the aggregated system by allocating capital to the single institutions before aggregating the individual risks. An important feature of our approach is the possibility of allocating cash according to the future state of the system (scenario‐dependent allocation). We also provide conditions that ensure monotonicity, convexity, or quasi‐convexity of our systemic risk measures.     

(Not So) Easy Come, (Still) Easy Go? Footloose Multinationals Revisited

The central question of this paper is to test whether multinational firms (MNFs) are more likely to exit the local market than domestic firms. Using firm‐level data for Belgium, we estimate a random effects probit model taking into account the endogeneity of firm size, total factor productivity (TFP) and sunk costs in firm exit. Our results highlight two features of the ‘footloose’ nature of MNFs. First, controlling for firm and sector characteristics, the exit probability of MNFs is larger than that of domestic firms. Second, MNFs have a lower sensitivity to TFP and size than do domestic firms. This means that an improvement in economic performance on the local market will not prevent a multinational from closing its local plant as much as it would for a domestic firm.     

Does the Quality of Institutions Limit the MENA's Integration in the World Economy?

Using a large sample of countries over the 1990s, this paper examines the extent to which institutions’ functioning disables a greater participation of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the world economy. It focuses on the impact on manufactured exports and FDI attractiveness and considers a broad index of political risk as well as indices targeted toward specific aspects of governance (corruption, government effectiveness and the rule of law). The results are robust to different econometric approaches and lend strong support to the hypothesis that the functioning of institutions may disable the participation of MENA countries in the world economy. They suggest that the impact of an improvement in the quality of institutions may result in a sensitive increase of FDI inflows and manufactured exports. That increase is comparable to the one resulting from liberalisation policies. Hence, although institutional reforms can take time, they deserve the necessary efforts given their outcomes as compared to other reforms.     

Least Squares Asymptotics in Spurious and Cointegrated Panel Regressions with Common and Idiosyncratic Stochastic Trends*

This article makes an analytical study of the effects of the presence of both common and idiosyncratic stochastic trends on the pooled least squares estimator. The results suggest that the usual result of asymptotic normality depends critically on the absence of the common stochastic trend.     

Fertility and female employment dynamics in Europe: the effect of using alternative econometric modeling assumptions

We investigate the direct and long‐run effects of fertility on employment in Europe, estimating dynamic models of labor supply under different assumptions regarding the exogeneity of fertility and modeling assumptions related to initial conditions, unobserved heterogeneity and serial correlation in the error terms. We find overall large direct and long‐run effects of giving birth on employment probabilities, and these effects differ considerably across countries. We find that within countries the results are sensitive to the statistical assumption made on initial conditions, the inclusion of serial correlation and the assumption of strict exogeneity of children. However, the pattern across countries is robust to these assumptions. We show that such patterns are largely consistent with prevailing institutional differences related to the flexibility of the labor markets and family policies. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rupture or Continuity? Modern and Postmodern Planning in Toronto

The literature on the transition to postmodernism, postfordism and participatory planning stresses the value of the economic and planning process shifts that have occurred in the late 1960s and early 1970s. This paper compares two periods of planning and urban development in Toronto: one running from 1959 to 1962, at the height of modernism, fordism and expert-driven planning, and the other, from 1989 to 1992, set within the postmodern, postfordist and participatory planning era. In line with expectations arising from the literature, the study reveals stark distinctions between the two periods. It documents the breaking up of the modern consensus around the progress ideology into a postmodern constellation of values. As a result, the range of issues debated on the planning scene was much broader over the second period than over the first. Overall, however, results point to a mixture of continuity and change between the two periods and thus diverge from this literature’s strong emphasis on transition. Contrary to expectations, citizen mobilization was pervasive in both periods, although there were major differences in the nature of activism and in the issues that were raised. Over the first period most activism originated from ratepayer organizations dedicated to the protection of single-family-home neighbourhoods from encroachments, whereas the second period featured, along with such associations, advocacy groups championing environmental and social causes. The two periods are also distinguished by different planning implementation capacities. Whereas in the first period, planning had the means to implement its visions, this was no longer the case in the second period. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, planning was thus incapable of aligning urban development with its environmental and social ideals, which meant that, by default, planning practice over the second period proceeded pretty much according to land-use and transportation principles evolved in the early postwar decades. In sum, distinctions between the two periods were far more evident in the discourse than in the implementation sphere. — Les recherches sur la transition vers le postmodernisme, le postfordisme et la planification participative soulignent la valeur des changements qui ont pris place à la fin des années soixante et au début des années soixante-dix. Cet article compare deux périodes de planification et de dévelopment urbain à Toronto: une qui va de 1959 à 1962, durant l’apogée du modernisme, du fordisme et de la planification contrôlée par les experts, et l’autre, de 1989 à 1992, à l’époque du postmodernisme, du postfordisme et de la planification participative. En accord avec les prévisions émanant des recherches, cette étude révèle des distinctions nettes entre les deux périodes. Elle documente le morcellement du consensus moderne autour l’idéologie du progrès et le changement en faveur d’une constellation de valeurs postmodernes. Il s’ensuit que le champ de problèmes discutés en relation avec la planification était beaucoup plus étendu durant la seconde période que durant la première. Dans l’ensemble, cependant, les résultats indiquent un mélange de continuité et de changement entre les deux périodes et divergent donc de la forte emphase sur la transition que l’on trouve dans les recherches. Contairement aux prévisions, la mobilisation des citoyens était omniprésente à Toronto pendant les deux périodes, mais il y avait des différences importantes quant à la nature de l’activisme et dans les problèmes soulevés. Durant la première période, la plus grande part de l’activisme provenait des organisations de contribuables vouées à la protection des quartiers d’habitations contre les empiètements, alors que la seconde période comprenait, en plus de ces organisations, des groupes de soutien aux causes de l’environnement et aux causes sociales. Les deux périodes sont également distinctes en termes de mise en oeuvre. Alors que dans la première période les urbanistes avaient les moyens de mettre leurs idées à exécution, ce n’était plus le cas dans la seconde. Vers la fin des années quatre-vingt et le début des années quatre-vingt-dix, la planification ne pouvait pas intégrer les développements urbains et ses idéaux sociaux et environnementaux. Par défaut, la pratique de la planification durant la seconde période a fonctionnée selon les principes d’utilisation des terrains et du transport développés dans les premières décennies de l’après-guerre. En somme, les différences entre les deux périodes sont beaucoup plus visibles au niveau du discours qu’au niveau de l’application.     

Dynamic Factor Demands and Technology Measurement under Arbitrary Expectations

We present a dynamic model of factor demands based on expected discounted costs minimization. While making only very mild assumptions on expectations and technology, we are able to establish a duality relationship between contemporary factor demands and the technology, and we provide formula for easily recovering marginal products, returns to scale, and technological change from estimated factor demands. Parametrization and implementation are illustrated in a detailed example.     

Costos del despido y ventajas de la medición con métodos directos

Es frecuente achacar los malos resultados del mercado laboral a los costos del despido y a las normas que rigen las relaciones de trabajo. Ahora bien, las investigaciones acerca de las consecuencias económicas de los despidos prestan muy poca atención a la calidad y la precisión de las mediciones, y no arrojan indicaciones concluyentes. Después de pasar revista a los métodos actuales de medición, el autor sostiene que es muy conveniente usar métodos cuantitativos directos a fin de complementar las mediciones indirectas habituales. Para ilustrar esta afirmación se vale de una encuesta efectuada recientemente en Australia.     

An Investigation of Policy Administrative Costs Using Panel Data for the English Environmentally Sensitive Areas

This paper explores transactions costs in the context of agri‐environmental policy schemes based on management agreements. While transactions costs encompass a wide range of organisational costs, the focus here is on the public‐sector administrative costs of policy implementation. Empirical administrative cost functions were estimated to investigate the factors affecting the magnitude of such costs, using panel data spanning five years for the 22 English Environmentally Sensitive Areas. The extent of participation appears to be important in explaining administrative cost variability across areas. The data suggested the existence of size economics with regard to the numbers of agreements made in any one ESA, and a significant effect of scheme experience in exerting downwards‐pressure on administrative costs. Policy budgeting and evaluation should take into account the non‐trivial costs of organisation, particularly if agri‐environmental schemes based on the procurement of conservation goods through management agreements are to be extended in future.