Extracting Nonlinear Signals from Several Economic Indicators

We develop a twofold analysis of how the information provided by several economic indicators can be used in Markov switching dynamic factor models to identify the business cycle turning points. First, we compare the performance of a fully nonlinear multivariate specification (one‐step approach) with the ‘shortcut’ of using a linear factor model to obtain a coincident indicator, which is then used to compute the Markov switching probabilities (two‐step approach). Second, we examine the role of increasing the number of indicators. Our results suggest that one step is generally preferred to two steps, especially in the vicinity of turning points, although its gains diminish as the quality of the indicators increases. Additionally, we also obtain decreasing returns of adding more indicators with similar signal‐to‐noise ratios. Using the four constituent series of the Stock–Watson coincident index, we illustrate these results for US data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CEO Stock‐Based Incentive Compensation and Firm Performance: A Quantile Regression Approach

This study employs the quantile regression model to examine the non‐monotonic impact of CEO stock‐based compensation on firm performance, using the data for U.S. non‐financial firms from 1993 to 2005. The results indicate that while the impact of CEO stock‐based pay on firm performance is positive for firms in the higher earnings quantile levels, the impact is negative for firms in the lower levels. In addition, the “V‐shaped” relationship between CEO stock‐based pay and firm performance satisfactorily explains the longstanding disagreement among earlier studies with regard to whether CEO stock‐based pay can enhance firm performance. Furthermore, the quantile‐varying pattern of the impact of stock‐based compensation on firm performance is robust after controlling for the industrial and yearly effects. It is also robust to the use of the pay‐for‐performance sensitivity as an alternative explanatory variable or the market‐based measure of performance as the dependent variable, or the consideration of the suspected endogenous problem between firm performance and stock‐based compensation.     

Sources of Fluctuations in the Real Exchange Rates and Trade Balances of the G‐7: A Sign Restriction VAR Approach

This paper estimates structural vector autoregression models of output, the real exchange rate and trade balance for the group of seven leading advanced economies (G‐7). Unlike previous studies, we do not impose long‐run purchasing power parity as an identifying assumption; instead, the shocks underlying the model are structurally identified using a set of theory‐consistent sign restrictions. Empirical results show that nominal shocks account for most of the long‐run variability in trade balances across the G‐7 countries. We are able to attribute this finding to long‐run movements in the real exchange rate, as the real exchange rate is significantly affected by nominal shocks in the long run.     

The State as Both Regulator and Player: The Politics of Transfer of Development Rights in China

The conventional argument that the introduction of transfer of development rights (TDR) shifts the power of land use regulation from the state to the market is increasingly under challenge. In China, the state's grip on land is reinforced through TDR, in which the state is both regulator and player. This state-dominated form of TDR affects China in three ways. First, competing aspirations of different scales of government complicate how TDR is implemented. Although the central state promotes TDR to maintain a national balance of arable land, some local states instrumentalize it to expand their landed basis of accumulation. Secondly, TDR tends to benefit the state but not its people. It may increase the fiscal income of the sending government and lessen the land shortage of the receiving government, but sometimes at the expense of the interests of land users without land ownership. Thirdly, given the state's deep involvement in TDR programs, the key for China's TDR to protect arable land lies not so much in clear property rights or a fully fledged market as in effective checks and balances regarding the state's powers over TDR. These three observations attest to the embeddedness of TDR in the local political economy.     

Partner‐diversity effects on alliance termination in the early stage of green alliance formation: Empirical evidence from carbon‐emission reduction projects in Latin America

Partner diversity is a key influencer in interorganizational alliances, and several empirical studies have shown that its outcomes are contingent on alliance‐specific factors. We extend this research as well as the growing literature on green alliances, in which partner diversity is uniquely high. Specifically, we examine partner‐diversity effects on alliance termination in the early stage of green alliance formation. We hypothesize that in this context, size disparity increases termination likelihood, whereas organizational variety and cultural separation have the opposite effect. To test our hypotheses, we use a sample of 366 alliance projects located in Latin America and submitted to the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism for evaluation, validation, and registration from 2004 to 2014. Our findings contribute to several research streams and provide practical guidance for successful formation of alliances focused on environmental protection.     

Do institutional investors drive corporate transparency regarding business contribution to the sustainable development goals?

Institutional investors show increasing interest in how companies align their corporate social responsibility strategies with the sustainable development goals (SDGs) proposed by the United Nations (UN). The information disclosed in this regard is essential to know and monitor business contribution to the 2030 Agenda. In this paper, we analyze the influence that institutional investors have on the adoption of the disclosure strategy established by UN and the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI)—GRI‐SDG Compass. The results obtained for a sample of 989 international companies, which prepare their sustainability reports following the GRI guidelines, show that ownership by foreign investors, pension funds, and “other” investors boosts the relevance of the information disclosed in relation to the 2030 Agenda. On the contrary, government, financial institutions, and cross holdings have no impact on the information systems developed.     

Selecting people based on person‐organisation fit: Implications for intrateam trust and team performance

Teamwork is widely adopted in organisations. Although much evidence indicates that using person‐organisation (P‐O) fit as a selection criterion benefits individual employees, little is known about how this practice influences team functioning. Drawing on the input‐mediator‐outcome model and the research on value congruence, this study built and tested a model that links P‐O fit in recruitment to work teams' performance. Based on data collected from team members, team leaders, human resources managers, and chief executive officers in 96 firms, we found that P‐O fit in recruitment had a positive relationship with team performance and that intrateam trust mediated the relationship between P‐O fit in recruitment and team performance. Further, this mediated relationship existed only when the organisation had a weak, rather than strong, respect‐for‐people culture. This study contributes to the P‐O fit and team literature and has practical implications for human resources practices and team management.     

ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION DYNAMICS: WHY IS THE INCOME SHARE OF TOP INCOME EARNERS ACYCLICAL OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE?

In the United States, the income share of the top 5% income group is acyclical over the business cycle. This study attempts to explain the cyclical behavior of the income distribution over the business cycle, particularly focusing on the top 5% income earners' share, using a heterogeneous agent model featuring a choice to become an entrepreneur. The model economy successfully reproduces the acyclical behavior of the income share of the top 5%. During expansions, relatively more people become entrepreneurs at the top, which offsets the decline in the income share of the high‐income earners from workers' side.     

The interaction effect of gender and ethnicity in loan approval: A Bayesian estimation with data from a laboratory field experiment

Microfinance targets women and uses loan provision as a tool for empowerment, which translates into better household nutrition, improved education, and a scale down of domestic violence. However, ethnic discrimination in microfinance may exist in countries with a segregated indigenous population. We assessed this possibility with a field experiment in Bolivia. The controlled laboratory experiment evaluated whether credit officers rejected microloan applications based on the interaction effect of ethnicity and gender of potential borrowers. Point estimates of a Bayesian mixed‐effects logistic regression, estimated with the experimental data, indicate that nonindigenous women have double the chance of loan approval, but indigenous women have only 1.5 times the chance of loan approval when compared with men. While the findings about gender are limited, the evidence for the interaction of gender and ethnicity is more robust and suggests the existence of positive taste‐based discrimination favorable for nonethnic women in Bolivia. We conclude that the affirmative actions towards women promoted by development agencies and microfinance institutions must not overlook ethnicity as an important factor for financial policies of sustainable development. In practice, these policies should be aimed at identifying and reducing both social desirability bias and the structural barriers to financial inclusion that indigenous women may face when trying to obtain access to a loan.     

Bankruptcy reform in the Middle East and North Africa: Analyzing the new bankruptcy Laws in the UAE,Saudi Arabia,Morocco, Egypt,and Bahrain

For years, countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have been trying to increase entrepreneurship rates and attract foreign investment, however, their bankruptcy statutes remained antiquated and punitive in nature. Potential start‐ups and foreign investors have been deterred from these markets due to a lack of alternative solutions to liquidation and a fear of punishment for business failure. At least seven countries in the region have now taken steps to modernize their bankruptcy laws to provide restructuring mechanisms and other measures designed to incentivize risk‐taking rather than to deter it. With this year's crash in oil prices, an unprecedented global pandemic and an imminent recession, an effective bankruptcy system has become even more critical to avoid catastrophic results for the employment rates and economic value of the companies in the region. However, despite these recent reforms, significant improvements are still needed to maximize the value and benefits of bankruptcy procedures in the face of these growing economic threats.