Taxation and household portfolio composition: US evidence from the 1980s and 1990s

This paper explores the relationship between household marginal income tax rates, the set of financial assets that households own, and the portfolio shares accounted for by each of these assets. It analyzes data from the 1983, 1989, 1992, 1995, and 1998 Surveys of Consumer Finances and develops a new algorithm for imputing federal marginal tax rates to households in these surveys. The empirical findings suggest that marginal tax rates have important effects on asset allocation decisions. The probability that a household owns tax-advantaged assets, such as tax-exempt bonds or assets held in tax-deferred accounts, is positively related to its tax rate on ordinary income. In addition, the portfolio share invested in corporate stock, which is taxed less heavily than interest bearing assets, is increasing in the household’s ordinary income tax rate. Holdings of heavily taxed assets, such as interest-bearing accounts, decline as a share of wealth as a household’s marginal tax rate increases.     

Population age structure and asset returns: an empirical investigation

"This paper investigates the association between population age structure, particularly the share of the population in the 'prime saving years' 45-60, and the returns on stocks and bonds. The paper is motivated by the claim that the aging of the 'Baby Boom' cohort in the United States is a key factor in explaining the recent rise in asset values. It also addresses the associated claim that asset prices will decline when this large cohort reaches retirement age and begins to reduce its asset holdings. This paper begins by considering household age-asset accumulation profiles. Data from the Survey of Consumer Finances suggest that while cross-sectional age-wealth profiles peak for households in their early 60s, cohort data on the asset ownership of the same households show a much less pronounced peak.... The paper then considers the historical relationship between demographic structure and real returns on Treasury bills, long-term government bonds, and corporate stock. The results do not suggest any robust relationship between demographic structure and asset returns.... The paper concludes by discussing factors such as international capital flows and forward-looking behavior on the part of market participants that could weaken the relationship between age structure and asset returns in a single nation."     

Participatory appraisal approaches versus sample survey data collection: a case of smallholder farmers well-being ranking in Njombe District, Tanzania

Social scientists and rural development interventionists inTanzania and in Sub-Saharan Africa depend mainly on conventionalsample surveys; in part this is a legacy of their basic training.Participatory rural appraisal and intervention approaches offera varied range of methods. We ask ourselves whether the resultsfrom participatory, rapid appraisals are conflicting and differentto those from sample surveys? This paper compares results ofa Rapid Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) with a conventionalsample survey. These surveys were conducted at the end of 1995and mid-1996 respectively, to establish socio-economic well-beingranks in Njombe district. A comparison of results shows thatthe well-being ranks established using PRA are valid and theapproach is reliable. The three qualitatively established well-beingranks differed empirically in many socio-economic indicators.These include resource endowment, labour force size, agriculturalland, livestock ownership, forest woodlot management, perceptionof food insecurity, technological advances in agricultural productionand natural resource management systems. Results show that thelow well-being group and female-headed households are disadvantaged.The goal of the Hifadhi Ya Mazingira-Njombe project is to developenvironmentally sustainable crop and livestock husbandry practicesin the district. The well-being ranking exercise has strongimplications for the project's strategy. We discuss the adoptedmethodology and implications. The paper recommends that developmentprogrammes and workers in Tanzania and Sub-Saharan Africa oughtto extend their approaches. It is time to include more of theparticipatory, relatively rapid rural appraisal and interventiontechniques. Benefits that they may accrue are time saving, lowercosts, quality information and stakeholder involvement.     

Education and the natural rate of unemployment

We show how changes in the educational composition of the labourforce affect both the level and the behaviour over time of aggregateunemployment series. We also demonstrate that if it had notbeen for such changes, the US unemployment series would look'European' since the within-group unemployment series all havethat same appearance. We derive a natural-rate model of unemploymentfor two education groups, providing microfoundations for inter-groupdifferences in wages and unemployment, and evaluate its plausibilityin light of microeconomic evidence.     

Capital Gains Tax Rules, Tax-loss Trading, and Turn-of-the-year Returns

Changes in the capital gains tax rules facing individual investors do not affect the incentives for "window dressing" by institutional investors, but they can affect the incentives for year-end tax-induced trading by individual investors. Empirical evidence for the 1963 to 1996 period suggests that when the tax law encouraged taxable investors who accrued losses early in the year to realize their losses before year-end, the correlation between early year losses and turn-of-the-year returns was weaker than when the law did not provide such an early realization incentive. These findings suggest that tax-loss trading contributes to turn-of-the-year return patterns.     

Welfare policy and the transformation of social security in South Africa

Social security is based on the belief that all citizens should be protected by the state against the main vicissitudes of life: old age, unemployment, disability and sickness. The success of welfare programmes internationally in improving poverty, income distribution and unemployment is appraised. Income maintenance in South Africa, which is discriminatory and ineffective in meeting real human needs, is examined. Although welfare should not promote dependence, neither should it be so hard to come by as to punish the poor.     

On the efficiency of stock-based compensation

When the market can observe the profitability of all projectswith equal precision, then with stock compensation (i) the weighton any given project in managerial compensation is independentof the marginal productivity of effort in the project; (ii)the projects that are the noisiest indicators of managerialeffort receive the most weight in compensation; and (iii) investorshave the greatest incentive to collect information about projectsthat are the noisiest indicators of managerial effort.     

An aging society: opportunity or challenge?

"This paper steps back from the current political debate [in the United States] over the social security trust fund and examines the more general question of how serious a macroeconomic problem aging is and how policy should respond to it. We focus primarily on issues relating to saving and capital accumulation. We do not consider the broader question of whether the current U.S. national saving rate is too high or too low, but focus on the effect of demographic changes on the optimal level of national saving. In addition, we consider the effects of demographic change on productivity growth and the optimal timing of tax collections. Our general conclusion is that demographic changes will improve American standards of living in the near future, but lower them slightly over the very long term. Other things being equal, the optimal policy response to recent and anticipated demographic changes is almost certainly a reduction rather than an increase in the national saving rate."