India’s petroleum demand: estimations and projections

Energy security is crucial for sustaining high economic growth in India. This article empirically estimates India’s long- and short-term demand relations for crude oil, diesel and petrol (gasoline) using the ARDL and ECM cointegration procedures and then uses them to project demand for these products up to 2025 under various scenarios of GDP growth and oil prices. Our projections show that over 2012 to 2025, demand is likely to increase by about 74% for crude oil, 117% for diesel and 136% for petrol – the annual growth rates being about 4.3% for crude oil, 6.1% for diesel and 6.8% for petrol (gasoline). This article suggests that India needs to (1) take measures to improve efficiency in the use of petroleum products; (2) try to enhance supplies such as through production sharing agreements by Indian oil companies with other countries and (3) increase the use of nuclear, hydro, solar and other alternative energy sources, as Western European countries have done.     

The role of exports in India's economic growth

We analyze the role of exports in India's economic growth and examine whether the export-led growth hypothesis (ELGH) applies to India. Our causality analysis provides support for the validity of the ELGH for India in the trade liberalization phase. Error variance decomposition and other analyses are also undertaken; these corroborate the results of the causality analysis and suggest that the rapid growth of exports has played a substantial role in increasing the growth rate in India following the economic reforms of 1991.