Localised Estimates of Dynamics of Multi‐dimensional Disadvantage: An Application of the Small Area Estimation Technique Using Australian Survey and Census Data

Deep and persistent disadvantage is an important, but statistically rare, phenomenon in the population, and sample sizes are usually not large enough to provide reliable estimates for disaggregated analysis. Survey samples are typically designed to produce estimates of population characteristics of planned areas. The sample sizes are calculated so that the survey estimator for each of the planned areas is of a desired level of precision. However, in many instances, estimators are required for areas of the population for which the survey providing the data was unplanned. Then, for areas with small sample sizes, direct estimation of population characteristics based only on the data available from the particular area tends to be unreliable. This has led to the development of a class of indirect estimators that make use of information from related areas through modelling. A model is used to link similar areas to enhance the estimation of unplanned areas; in other words, they borrow strength from the other areas. Doing so improves the precision of estimated characteristics in the small area, especially in areas with smaller sample sizes. Social science researchers have increasingly employed small area estimation to provide localised estimates of population characteristics from surveys. We explore how to extend this approach within the context of deep and persistent disadvantage in Australia. We find that because of the unique circumstances of the Australian population distribution, direct estimates of disadvantage have substantial variation, but by applying small area estimation, there are significant improvements in precision of estimates.     

The Timing of Option Repricing

We investigate whether executive stock option repricings are systematically timed to coincide with favorable movements in the company's stock price. For a sample of 236 repricing events, we observe sharp increases in stock price in the 20‐day period following the repricing date. In addition, repricing dates tend to either precede the release of good news or follow the release of bad news in the quarterly earnings announcements. Since information about stock option repricing is not generally released to the public around the repricing date, these findings suggest that CEOs opportunistically manage the timing of the option repricing date.     

The Effect of Founding Family Influence on Firm Value and Corporate Governance

We examined a sample of 120 Norwegian, founding family controlled and non‐founding family controlled firms, to address two important research questions: (1) is founding family control associated with higher firm value; and (2) are there unique corporate governance conditions under which a founding family controlled firm can be more valuable? We find a positive association between founding family control and firm value for four alternative definitions of founding family control. We find that the association between founding family CEOs and firm value is stronger among younger firms, firms with smaller boards, and firms with a single class of shares. However, the impact of founding family directors on firm value is not affected by corporate governance conditions such as firm age, board independence, and number of share classes. We also find that the relation between founding family ownership and firm value is greater among older firms, firms with larger boards, and particularly when these firms have multiple classes of shares. Our results imply that founding family controlled firms are more valuable and governed differently than firms without such influence. Furthermore, our results also suggest that founding family CEOs can enhance firm performance when family influence does not create shareholder entrenchment or when their cash flow rights are more aligned with their control rights.     

International equity portfolio allocations and transaction costs

In spite of the critical role of transaction cost, there are not many papers that explicitly examine its influence on international equity portfolio allocation decisions. Using bilateral cross-country equity portfolio investment data and three direct measures of transaction costs for 36 countries, we provide evidence that markets where transaction costs are lower attract greater equity portfolio investments. The results imply that future research on international equity portfolio diversification cannot afford to ignore the role of transaction costs, and policy makers, especially in emerging markets, will have to reduce transaction costs to attract higher levels of foreign equity portfolio investments.     

Export-led Growth in South Asia: A Panel Cointegration Analysis

Abstract

In this paper, we attempt to examine the export-led and manufacturing export-led growth hypothesis for four South Asian Countries; namely, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, using Pedroni’s panel cointegration technique for the period 1980–2002. In this context we estimate growth accounting equations to investigate the impact of exports, manufacturing exports and other important physical and human capital variables on both total GDP and non-export GDP. The study finds long-run equilibrium relationship between GDP (and non-export GDP) and exports along with other variables supporting export-led growth hypothesis. The results also substantiate the existence of manufacturing export-led growth hypothesis. Further, we find that export, fixed capital formation, public expenditure on health and education have statistically significant coefficients re-emphasizing the importance of these variables for higher economic growth.     

Investment appeal of small growth stocks

We examine the investment appeal of small growth stocks by addressing: (1) the extent of mean reversion in small growth stocks; and (2) the set of financial variables that uniquely and strongly identify small growth stocks with the most investment appeal. We use 22 years of data derived from Forbes' annual list of best small growth companies. Our findings indicate that the market generally overreacts in the 36 months leading up to the month of Forbes' publication. Cumulative abnormal returns decline sharply after publication of Forbes list. We also examine whether Forbes' financial filters are justified or investors should expand the financial parameters to identify stocks with better investment appeal. Our findings suggest that three out of four Forbes financial filters to screen companies performed better in the post-publication period. Small stocks performed poorly in the post-publication period when analyzed on 13 additional financial variables. Specifically, sales growth rate, cash flow growth rate, 5-year compound EPS growth rate, and net income growth rate were more than halved for the average company in the 36 months after the publication of Forbes' list. These results suggest that financial filters Forbes used to generate its list may not capture the underlying performance of small stocks. In examining the two research questions, evidence is unsettling and to some extent contrary to that provided by prior research.     

Evaluation of supplier capability and performance: A method for supply base reduction

Development of partnership with suppliers is widely recognised today as a potent tool for supply chain improvement. To develop an effective partnership, it is necessary to have a small supply base and an effort to reduce the supply base to a manageable level. Despite its overwhelming importance, models of supply base reduction are rare. Supplier sorting methods, used for pre-selection of suppliers and sometimes seen as methods for supply base reduction, have limitations ranging from (1) requirement of an exhaustive database of historical information (case-based reasoning), (2) inability to predefine the number of elements in a cluster (cluster analysis) and (3) inability to identify suppliers who are both highly capable as well as high performers (data envelopment analysis). In the present work, we develop a systematic framework for carrying out the supply base reduction process. The study assumes two important dimensions of suppliers—performance and capability. Performance of a supplier represents short-term effects on the achievement of supply chain objectives while supplier capability indicates long-term effects. Many of the performance and capability factors are imprecise in nature. In order to account for the imprecision involved in numerous subjective characteristics of suppliers, we use fuzzy set approach to measure the imprecision of these factors and rank a potential list of suppliers against their performance and capability. We then display their ranks in a ‘capability–performance matrix’ that helps a decision maker arrange the suppliers in decreasing order of preference. The desired numbers of suppliers are finally selected on the basis of this ordered list. The suggested framework will be of immense help to the practising managers in reducing the supply base—a prerequisite for building a strong supplier partnership and developing an effective supply chain.     

Policy analysis for growth of a new technology product

Three important aspects of the growth of a new technology product are new product diffusion, rise in productivity, and new product management. The authors maintain that these three aspects are interrelated. The study presented in this paper selected a system dynamics framework to address, in a unified fashion, the above-mentioned aspects of growth in the context of the TV industry in India. The study indicates that (a) in conformity to the present trend, new product diffusion should be treated as a multiattribute phenomenon, and a study of causal factors and their relationships hold the key to understanding this phenomenon, (b) contrary to the prevailing belief, new technology may not enhance capital or total productivity, particularly after the end of the major expansion phase of the product life cycle, and (c) new product growth is generally associated with a loss of market share during the major growth phase and an overcapacity at the end of this phase. Various policy tests on the model reveal that in the case of the Indian TV industry, employee skill has the highest leverage in improving company performance in terms of increased market share, increased productivity and profitability figures, and reduced overcapacity.