Optimal rotation with declining discount rate

In recent years it has been argued, from many perspectives, that the further into the future a value flow occurs, the lower is the appropriate discount rate for it. National governments are now beginning to authorise such declining discount rates. This viewpoint can be, and has been, formalised in various ways, and has been applied to evaluating forestry investments of given durations. When the optimal duration of investment is itself the issue, new problems arise. Lower discount rates make subsequent rotations longer than earlier ones, and for a given length more valuable than they would otherwise be. This affects the optimal length of earlier rotations, which in turn may affect the discount rate profile applicable to later ones. In the absence of analytical solutions for the optimal sequence of rotations, numerical protocols are needed. The results arising are mostly in accord with expectations. If the change of discount rate is due to expected changes of circumstance that are actually realised, then the optimal sequence of rotations will remain as initially determined. If, however, it is due merely to the particular time perspective of the present generation, rotations will be revised by future generations. This will lead to a sequence of rotations similar to that deemed optimal at the current short-term discount rate. The most important reductions in profitability caused by choosing the “wrong” discounting protocol arise from the “wrong” rate, rather than by using declining rates as such.     

衡量房价合理回归标准的思考

房价合理回归就是要通过对房价的调控使其回到合理水平,它体现了中央政府对房价调控的决心和信心,反映了城镇居民的心声和期待。判断房价是否合理回归,一看房价是否与城镇居民收入相适应;二看房价是否与成本和合理利润相匹配。要促进房价合理回归,必须坚持房价调控政策不动摇,巩固房价调控成果;努力降低商品住房成本,制止开发商暴利行为;理顺收入分配关系,增加城镇居民收入;加大保障性住房建设力度,构建住房保障体系;抑制住房投机需求,维护市场秩序,以实现房价调控目标。     

Overlooked encounters: young tourists' experiences at dark sites

This research note reviews the existing literature comprised of dark tourism articles and chapters mentioning children. Publications meeting the search criteria were few. Accordingly, we offer possible reasons for the scarcity of research on children in dark tourism, including the legal constraints when researching with minors, the academic risk in undertaking a new field of research, and the substantial expertise needed to engage children in studies. We conclude with the compelling reasons to undertake such research: to inform interpretation of emotionally provocative sites for children, to understand and mitigate children's psychological distress at dark sites, and to advance theoretical work on children as tourists.     

The Scholarly Status of Blacks in the Economics Profession: Have the National Economic Association and the Review of Black Political Economy Mattered?

This paper considers whether the National Economic Association and its journal the Review of Black Political Economy have enhanced the scholarly status of black economists. A bibliometric analysis reveals that while the typical black economist has never published in the Review of Black Political Economy, the share of black economists publishing in the Review of Black Economy approximates the share of all articles published on the economic and political economy of race by black economists, and the share of articles published in the Review of Black Political Economy by black economists appears higher than typical journals in economics—particularly for black economists employed at Historically Black Colleges and Universities. We also find that similar to other economics journals non-black economists dominate the share of published articles, and publications in the Review of Black Political Economy appear to be consistent with Lotka’s Law of scientific productivity suggesting that the journal is a standard outlet for research no different from any other science journal. Our results imply a plausible counterfactual that if the National Economic Association and Review of Black Political Economy did not exist, the scholarly status of blacks in the economics profession would have been lower than currently observed.     

MULTIVARIATE METHODS FOR MONITORING STRUCTURAL CHANGE

Detection of structural change is a critical empirical activity, but continuous ‘monitoring’ for changes in real time raises well‐known econometric issues that have been explored in a single series context. If multiple series co‐break then it is possible that simultaneous examination of a set of series helps identify changes with higher probability or more rapidly than when series are examined on a case‐by‐case basis. Some asymptotic theory is developed for maximum and average CUSUM detection tests. Monte Carlo experiments suggest that these both provide an improvement in detection relative to a univariate detector over a wide range of experimental parameters, given a sufficiently large number of co‐breaking series. This is robust to a cross‐sectional correlation in the errors (a factor structure) and heterogeneity in the break dates. We apply the test to a panel of UK price indices. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The demand for Indonesian narrow money: long-run equilibrium,error correction and forward-looking behaviour

Since the 1960s, the banking and financial sector has been at the forefront of the Indonesian development strategy. Thus in order to gain an understanding of the problems and opportunities facing Indonesia, it is essential to understand the workings of the monetary sector of the economy. The aim of this paper is to analyse the narrow component of money demand, using modern econometric techniques. But the major innovation of the paper (in the context of a developing country) is the use of an explicit forward-looking model. This approach, the consequence of financially sophisticated behaviour on the part of Indonesian agents, has significant policy implications. One of these is that announced changes in policy, if credible, will lead to a more rapid response from the private sector than if agents were purely backward looking. This may make the operation of monetary (and other) policy more effective than would otherwise be the case.     

The Incredible Shrinking Black Woman: Implications of Health Policies

Black American women are shrinking in height at a faster rate than other groups, a phenomenon that has consequences for the physical health and economic well-being of black females. Relative to the cohort born from 1955 to 1974, the most recent cohort (1970–1986) of black American women and girls have lost more than half an inch (approximately 0.56) in height. Adult height is a measure of net nutrition acquired during childhood and adolescence and is correlated with a wide variety of economic and health outcomes. Simultaneously, the body mass index (BMI) among blacks has also increased at a faster rate than whites in both the periods of 1988–1994 (1.06 kg/m2) and 1999–2002. Black women and girls, in particular, experienced the greatest increase in BMI since the 1990s. Evidence that black American women are shrinking and BMI is growing highlights the need to examine the nutritional intake of black girls during childhood and adolescence; early nutritional deficiencies have persistent impact over their life course. In this policy brief, we consider several public health policy interventions that affect black girls’ nutritional intake across the life course, particularly during childhood and adolescence.